Analysis of Pemex/world oil theft trendsRecently, Pemex reported a large increase in oil theft that is a continuation of world trends, I will present some articles from various news sources-
my analysis will be in italics(Reuters) - Crude oil theft at Mexico's state oil monopoly, Pemex, amounts to as much as 10,000 barrels per day (bpd) and has been rising by nearly a third annually, a top official with the company said on Thursday.
Large increases in theft usually indicate that an illegal network is becoming normalized and strongly suggests widespread connections are developing that characterize organized crime syndicates taking control of a trade"It's between 5,000 and 10,000 barrels per day," Carlos Morales, head of Pemex's exploration and production arm, said on the sidelines of an oil conference in the resort city of Cancun. "The thefts target gasoline, diesel and crude ... they vary all the time but without a doubt they have a major impact on the (Pemex) budget.
The variability of time suggest further organization as a centralized crime group will make sure it keeps authorities off balance since only it knows when it robbed last Each year fuel theft in Mexico has increased 30 percent," he added.
This indicates that more sophisticated distribution systems are being put in place to move the product to customers and that they can handle the higher volume- again, an indication of centralized crime syndicates investing in infrastructureCriminals have targeted oil pipelines around the country and Pemex says that company workers are often complicit.
How will oil be safeguarded in an era of pricey oil and low worker wages? We are seeing a pattern develop similar to US prohibition in the 1920’s where cops were on the take everywhereMexico is currently producing just over 2.5 million bpd, well down from a peak of 3.4 million bpd in 2004.
The Mexican government is this year planning to launch a major reform of Pemex to boost private investment in the company. Pemex funds about one-third of the federal budget.
Private investment may equal private security forces and gang wars over oil theft control routes as illegal supply is cut backsource
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/ ... GL20130606Also from the black market website Havocscope http://www.havocscope.com/tag/oil-theft/Mexican State Oil Company Pemex discovered 1,744 illegal siphons of its oil pipelines in 2012, a 23.2 percent increase from the 1,416 illegal siphons in 2011.
This is a lot of siphons- pipelines are very vulnerable things and this may really raise the cost of delivering oil significantly someday. EnglandHM Revenue and Customs in the United Kingdom discovered 388 occasions where criminals were selling illegal fuel to motorists. The number of incidents discovered during the 2012-2013 time period was 48 percent higher than the 262 detections in 2009-2010. Northern Ireland had 128 detections of illegal fuel sites, with 260 sites being in the rest of the UK.
Brits get in on the action- no doubt some syndicates will engage in world trade- note the huge increase in crime here- 48%. One would think security in England would be better, this is concerning.NigeriaSecurity officials in Nigeria reported that they destroyed 748 illegal refineries in the region in the first four months of 2013. During 2009 to 2012, Shell estimates that 85 percent oil spills in Nigeria was due to theft and attempted theft
Oil theft equals more spills, more environmental damage, more water contamination- and...less oilPhillipinesAccording to the Chairman and CEO of Petron, an estimated 36 million barrels of oil was smuggled into the Philipines in 2012. Oil industry officials also estimate that up to one-third of the oil sold on the market has been smuggled
Is Asia going to be the big crack addict for stolen oil? Concluding thoughts:1. Theft is increasing at very fast rates around the world- it seems to be led by organized syndicates that have the ability to bribe enforcers and policy makers and move large volumes. Small time thefts are probably also occurring.
2. As oil becomes more expensive, theft will raise the price even higher due to the costs of lost oil and security measures- this could make oil more valuable and incite more theft- leading to an out of control price spiral. A very valuable product (oil), carried by pipes, trucks, trains, and boats- in a world of very poor people- is a recipe for breakdown. Peak oil may be hastened by this process as constant theft leads to more spills
3. In some parts of the world today we are already at a Mad Max scenario