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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Why are some desperate for Peak Oil to happen? Pt 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Do you WANT Peak Oil to happen?

Unread postby John_A » Mon 03 Jun 2013, 18:00:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Arthur75', 'Y')ou forget a little thing, you are not Rock and what you said has nothing to do with his point, basically, or what he calls the POD.

Seems to me you don't understand what these graphs represent.


I understand perfectly what that graph means. And why it was made, and the point that Rock makes that POD encompasses far more than this bad projection or that bad projection of future oil production. Or oil and tar sands. Or oil and tar sands and tight oil. Or whatever else ends up getting pitched onto the heap because we are making fuels nowadays out of some interesting stuff, and whoever made that graph, DIDN'T include how much those things would cost. Which is an important part of POD. I wonder why such important information was excluded?
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Re: Do you WANT Peak Oil to happen?

Unread postby John_A » Mon 03 Jun 2013, 18:02:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Arthur75', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newbie Wants Info', '
')
Thus, I do not want peak oil to happen, and there is no way that anyone other than a genocidal maniac could want peak oil to happen, unless they have information that I don't.


Peak oil is not an event in the sense you assume, it is happening right now, it has happened on a per capita basis around 1980, current crisis IS peak oil crisis, and alas only the beginning.


Rock has said that POD has been around for quite some time. You should read up on it, maybe fire off an email to Laherrere and get him interested in the topic? And while you are at it, have him throw in the price all of us are going to have to pay to get some of that production he puts on those incomplete graphs. What good is a rate if we don't know what it will cost us?
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Re: Do you WANT Peak Oil to happen?

Unread postby C8 » Tue 04 Jun 2013, 14:57:16

OP here- I guess my question could be rephrased: do you think the benefits of PO will outweigh the costs?
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Re: Do you WANT Peak Oil to happen?

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 04 Jun 2013, 18:42:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('C8', 'O')P here- I guess my question could be rephrased: do you think the benefits of PO will outweigh the costs?


On the scale of a year or a decade no the costs will be higher than the benefits. On the scale of a century or more I think the benefits outweigh the costs, but getting there is going to be painful and harsh.
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Re: Do you WANT Peak Oil to happen?

Unread postby John_A » Wed 05 Jun 2013, 13:56:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('C8', 'O')P here- I guess my question could be rephrased: do you think the benefits of PO will outweigh the costs?


The benefits of PO will far outweigh the costs. And may be the only known mechanism on the planet with enough power to change BAU.

There are other ways to change people of course, but unlike the general landing PO can provide, those are somewhat more problematic.

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Re: Do you WANT Peak Oil to happen?

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 06 Jun 2013, 08:15:41

Not my thoughts, but thoughts of someone influential to the debate...

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1475061 ... ting&ifp=0

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ay 29th in what is set to become a defining moment in the history of capitalism; Rex Tillerson, the CEO of the world's most valuable company, Exxon Mobil (XOM), in an address to shareholders redefined the meaning of rational self interest for the markets everywhere in a short series of astonishing quotes:

"What good is it to save the planet if humanity suffers?"

"We do not see a viable pathway with any known technology today to achieve the 350 outcome that is not devastating to economies, societies and peoples' health and well-being around the world,"

"So the real question is, do you want to keep arguing about that and pursuing something that cannot be achieved at costs that will be detrimental? Or do you want to talk about what's the path we should be on and how do we mitigate and prepare for the consequences as they present themselves?"



Of course this is a very shortsighted view, making a prima facia assumption that mitigation is possible. This is the same as the tobacco companies testifying to congress that smoking was not harmful, while suppressing the real research.

If for no other reason than to silence such corporate Gobbles is wish for Peak Oil.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Goebbels

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')It would not be impossible to prove with sufficient repetition and a psychological understanding of the people concerned that a square is in fact a circle. They are mere words, and words can be molded until they clothe ideas and disguise.”
― Joseph Goebbels
Last edited by Newfie on Thu 06 Jun 2013, 08:27:48, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Do you WANT Peak Oil to happen?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 06 Jun 2013, 08:25:04

Newfie – An amazing statement I had not seen before. The unfortunate truth in the statement seems obvious to me and others but I’m very surprised to see him offer it in such a public manner. Perhaps ExxonMobil sees the coming crisis developing even faster and deeper than many here. Thus he’s trying to set the baseline of the future discussions: either you’re for maintaining BAU regardless of the environment impact or you against the economic stability of our society. I would imagine that as the pinch on Americans gets worse his pitch will resonate more strongly with many who might be on the fence today.
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Re: Do you WANT Peak Oil to happen?

Unread postby Beery1 » Thu 06 Jun 2013, 10:34:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('agramante', 'I')n the end, Beery, you have a real point: if we're not around, what do we care about what else is?


Was that my point? I thought that was Lore's point. Anyway, it's an important point. I think it's important that we survive long term, because as far as we know, we are the only creatures in the universe that can understand that universe and create and build a society that is capable of surviving long-term (by which I mean thousands, millions or even billions of years). I also think it's important that if we don't survive, we at least leave the only life sustaining planet (that we know of) habitable for other species, so that they might evolve into creatures that can understand and create and build like we do.

To consign the only planet we know of that can support life to oblivion just so that we can each travel 30 miles a week at 30mph to spend 40 hours a week pushing papers around seems to me to be a particularly stupid thing to do.

What we're doing with our time on this planet often reminds me of Shelley's poem 'Ozymandias':

I met a traveller from an antique land
Who said: `Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown,
And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them and the heart that fed.
And on the pedestal these words appear --
"My name is Ozymandias, king of kings:
Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!"
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.'

We've created a culture whose foundation is bound to fail (probably within our own lifetimes), and we're acting like what we're building on that foundation is destined to be a permanent monument to our greatness.
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Re: Do you WANT Peak Oil to happen?

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 07 Jun 2013, 00:04:11

The problem, as explained in another thread, is that increased efficiency in a global capitalist system leads to more consumption and not less, as resources not used are considered part of opportunity costs.
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Re: Do you WANT Peak Oil to happen?

Unread postby agramante » Fri 07 Jun 2013, 14:51:14

And the profit motive encourages consumption, not conservation.
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Re: Do you WANT Peak Oil to happen?

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 11 Jun 2013, 08:19:28

The off topic meandering thread posts have been split off, please stick to what you want or don't want from Peak Oil in this thread.

If I could have whatever I wanted then peak oil would transition into a steady state economy with a reliable long term fuel source ending BAU for ever more in its current context. We don't have to give up technology, we do have to give up mass fad consumerism of every doodad someone creates and then makes a demand for by appealing to our inner wants and drives.

Peak oil won't end our human nature, but it will take a big dent out of mass doodad consumerism as BAU.
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Do you WANT Peak Oil to happen?

Unread postby John_A » Tue 11 Jun 2013, 08:22:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')Peak oil won't end our human nature, but it will take a big dent out of mass doodad consumerism as BAU.


And do you WANT that to happen? Certainly hard for me to object to such a reasonable request for peak oil. I want it to happen to force people to rethink their energy habits overall, how they heat their homes and get to work, the temperature they keep the house at, how often do they REALLY need to go to Disneyland.
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Re: Do you WANT Peak Oil to happen?

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 11 Jun 2013, 08:37:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')Peak oil won't end our human nature, but it will take a big dent out of mass doodad consumerism as BAU.


And do you WANT that to happen? Certainly hard for me to object to such a reasonable request for peak oil. I want it to happen to force people to rethink their energy habits overall, how they heat their homes and get to work, the temperature they keep the house at, how often do they REALLY need to go to Disneyland.

Short answer yes, for the reasons you state in the quote.
Long answer yes, but at a rate of change that we can adapt too without mass die off or assorted other suffering. Our entire culture from Karl Marx forward is based on the concept that energy slaves make life for humans incredibly easy. I have no objection to a life of abundant ease in the abstract, however if life has no challenges it also has no real rewards for achieving a difficult task.

I am down right proud of those clever people who figured out a way to extract tight oil for under $100.00/bbl and managed to keep our economy staggering along. It is a supreme effort using brains and brawn to keep BAU going a little longer. They are like John Paul Jones on his badly damaged ship answering back "We have not yet begun to fight!" But just because I am proud of their human ability "To Strive to Seek, to Find, and not to yield!" doesn't mean I am ignorant of what cheap energy did to our civilization.

The problems from cheap energy are vast. The benefits have been vast as well. Weighing the good and the bad in my mental scales I believe the bad outweigh the good, so yes I want Peak Oil and the end of almost free energy.
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Re: Why are some so desperate for Peak Oil to happen?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Fri 05 Feb 2016, 16:41:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '[')u]I am desperate to see peak oil merely recognized right now for what it is, a rather slow geologic/economic steamroller. Instead of waiting until it is in the rear view mirror. We certainly had had a million indications. We should be acting on it, and not a hypothetical abrupt climate change event that even IPCC thinks is highly unlikely. This has been my point of view laterly, and why I persist here in spite of the frustration and antagonism.


I can totally relate to that sentiment. Which is why a fight the "it's not that bad" mantra some so often espouse.
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Re: Why are some so desperate for Peak Oil to happen?

Unread postby ennui2 » Fri 05 Feb 2016, 17:04:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')I can totally relate to that sentiment. Which is why a fight the "it's not that bad" mantra some so often espouse.


Upping the ante on the ad homs like you did in the other thread isn't going to change anybody's perspective. And considering that there's what, a dozen regular visitors here at best, what good would it be to convert all 12 exactly to your way of thinking?

How active has any of us been in everyday interactions in furthering this discussion?

Not very, I'd guess.

So people should stop deluding themselves that they are "fighting the good fight" to change hearts and minds.

It's just the usual "somebody's wrong on the internet" pass-time.

And if I want to frame things as "it's not so bad", that's my prerogative, which is why I burned it into my signature.

With all this talk about unavoidable malthusian die-offs, characterizing where we are as anything other than positive is a really spoiled attitude. When things go off the rails for sure, people will be waxing philosophical about the glory days of 2016 and sub-$2 gasoline.

This desire to spin the present as worse than it is is all borne by cassandras who can't stand waiting around for doom to really set in, and so they have to try to do their mental gymnastics to convince everyone that it's worse than it really is.

As far as I'm concerned, being a doomer should be more about appreciating what you've got before it's gone and not fixating on the negatives all the time. It's like being a cancer patient in remission. Make the most of it. Doomers can be some of the most miserable sad-sacks in the world.
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Re: Why are some so desperate for Peak Oil to happen?

Unread postby ennui2 » Fri 05 Feb 2016, 17:08:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I')n truth, it's not so bad


Glad you see things my way, then. :)
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Re: Why are some so desperate for Peak Oil to happen?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Fri 05 Feb 2016, 17:09:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'T')his desire to spin the present as worse than it is is all borne by cassandras who can't stand waiting around for doom to really set in, and so they have to try to do their mental gymnastics to convince everyone that it's worse than it really is.


Shows how little you know about me or any agenda I might have. Of course, it's worse than it seems. To say otherwise, is to deny reality.
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Re: Why are some so desperate for Peak Oil to happen?

Unread postby ennui2 » Fri 05 Feb 2016, 17:13:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Shows how little you know about me or any agenda I might have. Of course, it's worse than it seems. To say otherwise, is to deny reality.


Good/bad is ultimately a state of mind, Monte. It depends on where you set the bar (like that projection chart you are obsessing on in the other thread).

To some degree peak oil as a "phenom" is a 1st world problem (like the Weird Al song). It's a fear that the world's rich have of losing their way of life, and the minority of self-loathing rich who are guilty to the point where they'd like to see us knocked down for size.
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