[AirlinePilot]

agramante,

Excellent point. I would add a very important addition and hopefully the Petro guys here can back me up. As we learn more about BOTH the Earth's crust AND finding oil we also better understand where we will find oil AND WHERE WE WILL NOT. I am fairly sure there are a few siesmologically, or volcanically active places which almost rule out finding oil there. I would also assume that places like the Atlantic ridge would pretty much be devoid of oil due to its geologic nature.

[agramante]

Yup, exactly. You'll go broke (or get fired) quickly these days just drilling in any old place--on the Canadian shield, for example, or the Mid-Atlantic Ridge as you suggested. Back in the really early days, I suppose, wildcatters could just set up shop close enough to an existing well and, free of any knowledge, tap by chance into the same formation, but that's not how it works any more, especially when you've got a mile of water and another mile or two of rock to get through. This is the area Rockman knows intimately, and I only hazily. And the POD (to borrow RM's phrase) is exactly the situation which the Limits to Growth described: you don't need to give specific dates and rates of change to have an overall view of system dynamics. It's most likely we'll recognize peak production for what it is only when we're unmistakably on the downward side. Possibly the economics are giving us a better real-time indication than production and reserves data are, but it's hard to say for sure. As I type, four drilling rigs, one drillship, and two production platforms are visible from the bridge of this vessel, but GoM production peaked in 2001. Some industry estimates have us passing that peak again in the next few years, and if we don't, it won't be for lack of trying.

[ROCKMAN]

AP – Actually on a mega picture scale we have a pretty good handle on where we might find oil. And we have a very clear picture where we won’t. For decades it’s been proven that the vast majority of the oceans have no commercial oil potential. While pelagic sediments anywhere in the oceans have the potential for hydrocarbon generation the system there is a lack of reservoir quality rocks and burial history.

While it may seem like we’ve gone far out exploring for oil we really haven’t. Consider the GOM as example. It’s one of the greatest hydrocarbon generating ovens on the planet. But the key was actually the Mississippi River. It has delivered trillions of tons of sediment into the basin which deposited the reservoir quality rocks we’re producing today. That huge sediment dump has also depressed the basin to a very deep geosyncline that allowed a thermal history to generate hydrocarbons.

The DW oil deposits were the last big surprise in N American oil exploration. There had been no expectation of a sediment transport system that would deliver reservoir quality sediments that far away from the coast line. But during the 50’s surface geology studies in Italy gave began offering hints of a possibility. Search “turbidite” if interested. But despite some folks thinking the DW GOM (as well as all other DW plays) are a new geologic development they aren’t. In 1975 I was working with GOM seismic data indicating this potential. Part of the reason I had the assignment was my master’s work at Texas A&M on turbidite fields in CA. Others long before that time saw the potential. This was the stimulus to develop the engineer tech to explore way out there. And that began over almost 40 years ago when the first DW GOM field was developed in 1976. Since then over 160 DW fields have been developed. IOW it ain’t a “new” discovery.

During this period DW plays around the world were evaluated. BTW the North Sea is not considered a DW play. Offshore west Africa still has a lot of potential on an individual field basis but again, on a regional scale, it’s potential been known for decades. The last big unknown regional oil potential is the Arctic. But not completely unknown as far as failures go. Many $billion have been spent over the decades proving where there isn’t potential. Shell’s efforts, as well as those off Greenland, are just the most recent failures. But there’s still potential so as long as oil prices stay high companies and companies will keep poking holes.

We’ve already discussed the fact that the Bakken, Eagle Ford, etc. are not newly discovered trends but plays that have also become commercial targets tanks to long established tech and current high oil prices.

[John_A]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'H')ow could the Peak Oil Dynamic have "worked" so many decades before the oil age matured? The Spindletop field wouldn't peak for another 14 years. Saudi Arabia didn't even exist in 1913, much less pump oil.

[John_A]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('agramante', ' ') But I think our physical understanding of the realities of peak oil are undeniably improved over one hundred years ago.

[agramante]

In 100 years they'll be looking back at a long-past peak in oil production. What other conditions will obtain then I wouldn't venture to say with much certainty, other than there will most likely be fewer people on the planet than now.

[John_A]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'W')ho is Sir Edward? Is he another Creationist whipping boy?"

[AirlinePilot]

Dont know if folks have seen this thread I started here a while back but I believe it is appropo.....specifically the charts showing the gigantic fails based on no less than the EIA data. There is a reason they do this, but at least they are attempting to change their tune in the last few years.

http://peakoil.com/forums/the-fallacy-of-predicting-production-t64335.html

[AirlinePilot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', 'I') think POD has more potential for future discussion and invigorated website conversations than the endless distractions of who shot John when it comes time which date, by who, how awful, is ammo and gold more valuable than stored food when the zombies arrive, etc etc.

[ROCKMAN]

AP – “I believe that the GNE picture is the direct effect of POD”. Actually in my inclusive definition of the POD the GNE is a critical component of the POD. And now I see the future GNE being affected even more by those refinery JV’s. But the date of PO whenever it was or will be is also part of the POD . The bottom line is that each factor has a level of impact. It seems that the collective is beginning to put the PO date as well as recent increases in US oil production in the proper perspective. Those are components of the POD but not the defining elements IMHO. System dynamics might have been a better tag than Peak Oil Dynamic bit I feel “POD” is much sexier than “SD”. LOL