PeakOil is You
The Oil Market
by clv101 » Thu 09 Jun 2005, 13:22:03
Here's my analysis: www.vitaltrivia.co.uk
"Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen." The Emperor (Return of the Jedi)
The Oil Drum: Europe
The Oil Drum: Europe
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clv101 - Heavy Crude
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Re: Not in contango now
by freetoken » Fri 10 Jun 2005, 12:45:43
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('halfin', 'L')ook at the Nymex oil futures contracts at http://www.nymex.com/jsp/markets/lsco_fut_csf.jsp? (click on Current Expanded Table if necessary) to see the June 8 data, and compare the settlement prices for December of the next few years:
2005 $56.02
2006 $55.45
2007 $54.47
2008 $53.72
2009 $53.17
2010 $52.67
As you can see, there is no contango! [snip]
2005 $56.02
2006 $55.45
2007 $54.47
2008 $53.72
2009 $53.17
2010 $52.67
As you can see, there is no contango! [snip]
I'm glad to see that someone actually did their homework! I've lurked here for a while but not posted before, but I just joined with the intent of doing what you just did - but you beat me to it.
There are so many people here who seem so anxious to see the "end" come quickly.... everything (including the untruth) becomes evidence for their scenarios!
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freetoken - Wood
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Question About June Oil Market Report...
by UIUCstudent01 » Sat 11 Jun 2005, 05:16:21
The June Oil Market Report reported on page 44 that the total supply for 1Q '05 was 83.76... for 4Q '04, it was 84.18. It decreased by .42 million barrels per day in the first quarter of '05.
Is this normal for quarter to quarter reports? Obviously, it might be a bumpy ride, but does this mean we are essentially at peak...?
(Tell me I'm wrong.)
(Considering there are alot of things I don't know about this report and I'm just skimming it..)
Is this normal for quarter to quarter reports? Obviously, it might be a bumpy ride, but does this mean we are essentially at peak...?
(Tell me I'm wrong.)
(Considering there are alot of things I don't know about this report and I'm just skimming it..)https://www.videogamevoters.org/ http://www.savetheinternet.com/ http://www.votersforpeace.us/index.jsp
www.911myths.com - To the 9/11-ers, give it some thought.
www.911myths.com - To the 9/11-ers, give it some thought.
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UIUCstudent01 - Tar Sands
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Well..
by UIUCstudent01 » Sat 11 Jun 2005, 06:22:10
It's just one fluxuation downward, so it's not a time to pinpoint Peak Oil. There probably needs to be a few declining months/years.
https://www.videogamevoters.org/ http://www.savetheinternet.com/ http://www.votersforpeace.us/index.jsp
www.911myths.com - To the 9/11-ers, give it some thought.
www.911myths.com - To the 9/11-ers, give it some thought.
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UIUCstudent01 - Tar Sands
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by linlithgowoil » Sat 11 Jun 2005, 11:58:21
it confirms the view that we are currently at the 'plateau'. i think we'll be hovering around 84-85 mbpd until late 2007, then we'll enter the decline.
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linlithgowoil - Tar Sands
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Better analysis
by halfin » Sun 12 Jun 2005, 19:51:45
Here is a much better analysis of the oil futures situation, from an economics blog copied to EnergyBulletin.net, http://www.energybulletin.net/6671.html . Oil Futures and the Future of Oil, by James D. Hamilton. His blog is http://www.econbrowser.com .
"Commodity traders can have as hard a time as any of us trying to predict oil prices. But it's interesting to see what the current price structure tells us about what traders believe brought about the current high prices and what may be in store for us next....
"One possibility that has run through many of our minds is whether the oil price run-up over the last two years might be the first signs of an inevitable eventual decline in annual global petroleum production resulting from exhaustion of the world's oil fields. Energy Outlook, Daily Kos, Angry Economist , and WhirledView, to pick a random selection, have discussed this, and indeed there are entire blogs (e.g., The Oil Drum ) and metadirectories like Hubbert Peak and The Dry Dipstick devoted to this theme.
"If this were the concern motivating today's oil buyers and sellers, however, we would not be seeing a projection of declining oil prices going into the future but instead a rising price path reflecting investors' understanding that oil would be becoming an increasingly scarce and valuable resource in the years ahead...
"The pattern in the futures prices instead suggests that the consensus opinion on the part of commodity speculators is that we are going to see either supply increases or demand decreases a year or two down the road. Optimism about Iraq I suppose is one scenario that might be used to motivate the first view. But I'm inclined instead to look for developments coming on the demand side.
"Energy users anywhere in the world are going to respond to the incentives brought about by higher prices, changing their daily methods of transportation and production when it becomes apparent that the old way of doing things has become too expensive.... It seems particularly likely that China, whose burgeoning demand has been driving oil prices up these last two years, will find ways to make some needed adjustments in the near future..."
Read the whole thing, it is a good analysis and much more clearsighted IMO than the one linked in the comments above.
"Commodity traders can have as hard a time as any of us trying to predict oil prices. But it's interesting to see what the current price structure tells us about what traders believe brought about the current high prices and what may be in store for us next....
"One possibility that has run through many of our minds is whether the oil price run-up over the last two years might be the first signs of an inevitable eventual decline in annual global petroleum production resulting from exhaustion of the world's oil fields. Energy Outlook, Daily Kos, Angry Economist , and WhirledView, to pick a random selection, have discussed this, and indeed there are entire blogs (e.g., The Oil Drum ) and metadirectories like Hubbert Peak and The Dry Dipstick devoted to this theme.
"If this were the concern motivating today's oil buyers and sellers, however, we would not be seeing a projection of declining oil prices going into the future but instead a rising price path reflecting investors' understanding that oil would be becoming an increasingly scarce and valuable resource in the years ahead...
"The pattern in the futures prices instead suggests that the consensus opinion on the part of commodity speculators is that we are going to see either supply increases or demand decreases a year or two down the road. Optimism about Iraq I suppose is one scenario that might be used to motivate the first view. But I'm inclined instead to look for developments coming on the demand side.
"Energy users anywhere in the world are going to respond to the incentives brought about by higher prices, changing their daily methods of transportation and production when it becomes apparent that the old way of doing things has become too expensive.... It seems particularly likely that China, whose burgeoning demand has been driving oil prices up these last two years, will find ways to make some needed adjustments in the near future..."
Read the whole thing, it is a good analysis and much more clearsighted IMO than the one linked in the comments above.
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halfin - Wood
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Re: Not in contango now
by SD_Scott » Mon 13 Jun 2005, 16:02:38
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('halfin', 'L')ook at the Nymex oil futures contracts at http://www.nymex.com/jsp/markets/lsco_fut_csf.jsp? (click on Current Expanded Table if necessary) to see the June 8 data, and compare the settlement prices for December of the next few years:
2005 $56.02
2006 $55.45
2007 $54.47
2008 $53.72
2009 $53.17
2010 $52.67
As you can see, there is no contango! Prices are lower each year. The markets apparently expect oil prices to be several dollars lower in 2010 than now. I don't see how you can see this as a prediction of Peak Oil.
2005 $56.02
2006 $55.45
2007 $54.47
2008 $53.72
2009 $53.17
2010 $52.67
As you can see, there is no contango! Prices are lower each year. The markets apparently expect oil prices to be several dollars lower in 2010 than now. I don't see how you can see this as a prediction of Peak Oil.
If a lot of the experts are right, this won't be the case. Oil could easily be over $100 a barrel by 2010. It's one little incident away from $60 right now. It's that economist hope thing again. Gold goes up, oil goes down.
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SD_Scott - Coal
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by Carmiac » Mon 13 Jun 2005, 19:06:41
I think it depends on the exact definition of contango.
If the definition is all future contracts are higher than the current front month then we are in full contango, with the current front price at 55.51, and all other prices higher after that, with the next lowest being Dec '10 at 55.65.
If the definition is all months higher than all previous months, then we are only in contango untill Feb 06, with a peak price of 55.87.
So which definition is correct?
If the definition is all future contracts are higher than the current front month then we are in full contango, with the current front price at 55.51, and all other prices higher after that, with the next lowest being Dec '10 at 55.65.
If the definition is all months higher than all previous months, then we are only in contango untill Feb 06, with a peak price of 55.87.
So which definition is correct?
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by clv101 » Tue 14 Jun 2005, 16:37:33
I've used the 1st definition. All futures prices higher than the nearest price before corrections for future value of money.
"Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen." The Emperor (Return of the Jedi)
The Oil Drum: Europe
The Oil Drum: Europe
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clv101 - Heavy Crude
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Paving the Way for an Energy Bull Market via the CRB
by MonteQuest » Sun 17 Jul 2005, 01:08:37
One of the world’s best known benchmarks of the commodity futures market has been redesigned and renamed, effective July 12, 2005. This will focus investors towards the energy bull market and away from precious metals to some degree. I wonder what this will do to the speculative price of oil. 
CRB Index Revised Commodity Research Bureau
http://www.crbtrader.com/
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he most obvious change to the CRB will be the addition of three new commodities (and the elimination of one existing one) for a net gain of two components. The famous CRB 17 will now be the CRB 19. The traditional equal weighting of the CRB will be thrown out as well, and good riddance to it. In the new CRB crude oil will be weighted as 23x more important than orange juice, a vastly more accurate portrayal of reality than equality has been.
The CRB of the past decade had 17 equally-weighted component commodities, which equals out to 5.9% or so for each individual component. The new CRB’s 19 component commodities are much more intelligently weighted. The biggest by far, and rightfully so, is crude oil at a massive 23% of the new CRB index. Total petroleum products will now run 33% compared to less than 12% in the current CRB.
Crude oil is absolutely the King of Commodities today. It forms the foundation of our extensive global trade and hence the entire world economy. Virtually everything we consume in the first world is transported via oil-powered ships, trains, airplanes, and trucks. Without oil, the incredibly intricate global logistics network on which we so heavily rely today would grind to a halt. We would be thrust back into the Steam Age before flight and global trade would implode. Oil’s supreme importance is unassailable.
The new CRB brings back unleaded gasoline as well, a great decision. Unleaded gas was originally inducted into the CRB in the 1992 revision and then inexplicably booted in the 1995 revision. Yet gas is the crude oil distillate that most affects first-world consumers. Every ride we take consumes gasoline and everything we buy includes a component of gas costs incurred to transport it from where it is produced to where we purchase it. As far as impacting everyday life, no other commodity is so ubiquitous and far reaching.
The new CRB’s 33% weighting for crude oil and its key distillates is also now in line with other commodities indexes. The CRB’s main competitor is the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index, which was running an utterly massive 64% petroleum weighting at the end April. The Dow Jones AIG Commodities Index had 21% exposure to petroleum at the same time. Far more so than today’s paltry sub-12% weighting, the new CRB’s petroleum emphasis captures the essence of today’s world trade and better compares to other leading indexes.
Overall, when natural gas is included, the new CRB’s energy exposure rises 21% to 39% from the existing iteration’s 18% or so. I have pondered this heavy energy emphasis a lot in recent weeks and continue to conclude that it can only be good. A great index reflects the relative importance of its components in the underlying world economy, and in today’s world nothing else even comes close to having the broad impact of energy.
CRB Index Revised Commodity Research Bureau
http://www.crbtrader.com/
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he most obvious change to the CRB will be the addition of three new commodities (and the elimination of one existing one) for a net gain of two components. The famous CRB 17 will now be the CRB 19. The traditional equal weighting of the CRB will be thrown out as well, and good riddance to it. In the new CRB crude oil will be weighted as 23x more important than orange juice, a vastly more accurate portrayal of reality than equality has been.
The CRB of the past decade had 17 equally-weighted component commodities, which equals out to 5.9% or so for each individual component. The new CRB’s 19 component commodities are much more intelligently weighted. The biggest by far, and rightfully so, is crude oil at a massive 23% of the new CRB index. Total petroleum products will now run 33% compared to less than 12% in the current CRB.
Crude oil is absolutely the King of Commodities today. It forms the foundation of our extensive global trade and hence the entire world economy. Virtually everything we consume in the first world is transported via oil-powered ships, trains, airplanes, and trucks. Without oil, the incredibly intricate global logistics network on which we so heavily rely today would grind to a halt. We would be thrust back into the Steam Age before flight and global trade would implode. Oil’s supreme importance is unassailable.
The new CRB brings back unleaded gasoline as well, a great decision. Unleaded gas was originally inducted into the CRB in the 1992 revision and then inexplicably booted in the 1995 revision. Yet gas is the crude oil distillate that most affects first-world consumers. Every ride we take consumes gasoline and everything we buy includes a component of gas costs incurred to transport it from where it is produced to where we purchase it. As far as impacting everyday life, no other commodity is so ubiquitous and far reaching.
The new CRB’s 33% weighting for crude oil and its key distillates is also now in line with other commodities indexes. The CRB’s main competitor is the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index, which was running an utterly massive 64% petroleum weighting at the end April. The Dow Jones AIG Commodities Index had 21% exposure to petroleum at the same time. Far more so than today’s paltry sub-12% weighting, the new CRB’s petroleum emphasis captures the essence of today’s world trade and better compares to other leading indexes.
Overall, when natural gas is included, the new CRB’s energy exposure rises 21% to 39% from the existing iteration’s 18% or so. I have pondered this heavy energy emphasis a lot in recent weeks and continue to conclude that it can only be good. A great index reflects the relative importance of its components in the underlying world economy, and in today’s world nothing else even comes close to having the broad impact of energy.
Link
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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MonteQuest - Expert
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Poll: Are Energy Markets Being Manipulated?
by OilsNotWell » Fri 23 Sep 2005, 14:20:44
Here are a few quotes from other boards that gave rise to this poll:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')oster's note: This oil market reaction to Rita is absurd. All refineries in the Houston/Port Aurthur area are shut. Fuel hoarding and evacuation demand is massive. Offshore oil and gas shutins and damge will be extensive.
In the 70s we legislated capped prices which made the oil shortage worse. Now we have secret no checks or balances financial committees manipulating markets which will end up making things worse. Whats equally amazing is all the analysts explaining the oil and gas price selloffs like they are logical. Our gov now manipulates all markets. The dow is higher and oil and fuel markets are now lower than pre-Katrina. Everyone is buying into it! The markets are telling us there's no crisis. Let me clue you in. I'm telling you we do have a major energy supply crisis unfolding. We did before Rita. Like I posted wednesday night. Don't listen to these markets, its BS
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')oster's note: This oil market reaction to Rita is absurd. All refineries in the Houston/Port Aurthur area are shut. Fuel hoarding and evacuation demand is massive. Offshore oil and gas shutins and damge will be extensive.
In the 70s we legislated capped prices which made the oil shortage worse. Now we have secret no checks or balances financial committees manipulating markets which will end up making things worse. Whats equally amazing is all the analysts explaining the oil and gas price selloffs like they are logical. Our gov now manipulates all markets. The dow is higher and oil and fuel markets are now lower than pre-Katrina. Everyone is buying into it! The markets are telling us there's no crisis. Let me clue you in. I'm telling you we do have a major energy supply crisis unfolding. We did before Rita. Like I posted wednesday night. Don't listen to these markets, its BS
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')f course! It is all so simple now. The reason this oil bull was running so strong was that everyone was focused on ADDING supply. Adding supply just means demand will keep rising. However, what was really needed to kill the oil bull was to REMOVE SUPPLY. See, removing supply, removing drilling rigs, removing platforms actually causes prices to go down! Demand which was growing fast at with oil in the 50's and 60's, will now shrink, and shrink more than SUPPLY has, as oil goes into the 50's. See, before, when there was more supply coming on, and oil was in the 50's, demand was a runaway train. However, NOW, oil will fall into the 50's, and demand will shrink fast...because we've taken out the supply. See? Its all very simple. Removing supply is the best way for prices to go down. And all this time those foolish energy bears thought price would go down because MORE supply was going to come on. Looks like we've all learned our lesson.
Bozo
P.S. - See, its like Google shares. The more shares they issue, the higher the price will go. More supply = higher prices, less supply = lower prices. Its the New, New economy.
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OilsNotWell - Heavy Crude
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