[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'W')hat I don't get with this prognosis is:

How can a 'True Leader' emerge post collapse, post population bottleneck, post enviro- disaster etc?
Who would give a hoot? What would make such a person relevant? (Say more relevant than the historical Jesus or Mohammad or Gautama or Theresa?)

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')Do you think that the consequences of overshoot in the 21st century will rival the social disruptions caused by the clash of Romans, Egyptians and Jews in the middle east that caused us to pray for 2000 years to a man nailed to a cross (son of a collective soup)? I expect them to be so.

The leader I speak about will not be a politician, and will not come from any form of government like the ones we see today. He or she or them will represent a spiritual movement, way down the descent when existing governments are totally discredited by real events and consequences.

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')The religion at the edge today is Islam.

[SeaGypsy]

Beheading anyone? Or howabout a nice burning at the stake?

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'h')ate Obama so much... he's a closet Muslim

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
But even more common is the rise of marginal peoples and/or existing marginal religions from the MARGINs of the collapsing empire. Thats how Christianity came from the edge to take over the Roman and Byzantine empires.

[PrestonSturges]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')The leader I speak about will not be a politician, and will not come from any form of government like the ones we see today. He or she or them will represent a spiritual movement, way down the descent when existing governments are totally discredited by real events and consequences.

[Ibon]

It's curious that we so easily acknowledge the long term unsustainable nature of our current economic, political and religious institutions then we name these very institutions as preventing us from allowng any major systemic changes. Isn't this a little bit of cognitive dissonance? If they are doomed ecologicially they are automatically doomed ideologically and will at some point weaken to the point they no longer hold the collective. Why is this so hard to understand when we cynically proclaim that we are incapable to adapt?

I agree about change coming from the margins and not from within. That is related to my post about already anchoring yourself conceptually to some point in the future where human society will incorporate models for living sustainabally. By embracing this concept you may be able to recognize early on a movement that rises from the margins and gains momentum.

Something Sea Gypsy I believe alludes to is the following sentiment; While we will all be drawn slowly down into the territory where we can only react to crisis, from where will come the luxury of trying to design any reasonable response? I agree with this sentiment. It will be impossible in fact to try to stitch something together from a collapsing model.

It is really all about recognizing leaders from the margins who draw from the collective soup of the marginilized.

This will probably take several generations.

[SeaGypsy]

Nice to be grokked once in a while; even when the matter seems utterly obvious to the grokkee.

We are so enamored of/ with our own time, our own selves and our own experience, our own projections of the future, our own limitations of vision, insight, being and ability; we rarely see the most obvious things about the species we are part of.

Recently I have done a trade with myself. I stopped several indulgences and gave myself permission to be as free as I can imagine being for what's left of my life. I feel like I did when I was 20. Spending most of my time with my family, living way cheaper than before, travelling, going to a big alternative lifestyles festival this week, having a blast of a time. This mere statement will draw twisted derision from certain quarters. We are trained and often bred, slaves. Freedom is a rare and fleeting, daring compromise. If you can, take it.

[Newfie]

So who IS John Gault anyway.

[Tanada]

The purpose of every cultural institution be it government, religion, or social group, is to prevent change. Modern Islam is loosely based on what happened 1400 years before present, Modern Christianity 1980 years before present and Modern Judaism 5773 years before present. All claim to be following the blueprint laid out in the beginning but if you dropped a modern practitioner back into the first century of their faith they would be seen as a crazy heretic by those alive in the early centuries.

Second layer is Government, where the people in charge no matter what form the government takes desire to STAY IN CHARGE. To do that they have to keep anyone else from rising up with a different way of doing things that might weaken the leadership.

On the social group level you have everything from local family structure to the moose lodge equivalent where you rise up through the ranks by doing as the elders require, to the guilds where you never get a promotion at your profession unless the Masters in the profession trust you to do what is best IN THEIR OPINION for the profession.

All of these layers act to prevent or slow change in the culture. When they start breaking down we consider a culture to be at its apex and starting to 'decline'. Things start changing faster and faster until none of the layers can slow it down, the people lose faith in the society and collapse rapidly follows as they seek someone, anyone, to provide stability once again. Frequently that stability comes from a fringe religion that has existed for decades or centuries on the periphery of the culture but whom people convert too in a good percentage willingly because they see it as a beacon of hope and stability. Sometimes it is a revival of a offshoot of the most common faith, sometimes it is a revival of an old faith that was pushed aside.

Something most modern people never learned or ignore is that Judaism was a major religion in the Roman Empire in 30 AD. Some historians peg its membership as high as 10% of the entire population. After the rebellion starting in 66 AD the Emperors started working to suppress Judaism and the membership fell substantially, there was no longer any advantage to being Jewish and instead a social detriment so only those who truly believed held to the faith. Everyone knows the stories about the Christians being thrown to the Lions in the Colosseum. What a lot of people ignore also is that Muslims who refused to convert in Spain were subject to the Inquisition for hundreds of years and if caught they were literally tortured to the edge of death and then executed by burning at the stake.

Any of them could see a major resurgence in the 21st century, or it could be some fringe group like the Branch Davidian's or the Ba'Hai or Leviticans who today are a very small membership who exponentially grow to fill the void.

I am confidant Rational Humanism will not fill the void, if it could there would be billions of people practicing it today. Humans seem to need a higher power to bless their endeavors, and if yours is better than theirs they will either fight you or convert.

[PrestonSturges]

Keep in mind that history's lesson is clear - most charismatic leaders are insane and usually killers.

The Bible is also pretty explicit that the next great Christian leader will be the Beast, and that most Christians will be fighting to get to the front of line to worship him. How will you know the Beast? By the long line of Christians. He will be the one that mixes politics and religion, church and state. Toss out the prophetic argle bargle of revelation and there it is. People who want to mix church and state will be the footsoldiers of the antichrist. That's not my personal belief, but all the Millenialists out there (well the Pre-Dispensationalist Millenialists anyway) need to really own and understand their personal beliefs

And if the real deal comes along, they'll be crucified again. Put aside all the details of the New Testament, and that's the real life lesson - anyone that campaigns for peace shall die horribly. We've certainly seen that happen often enough.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrestonSturges', '
')That's sort of an eternal theme, and Eric Hoffer described it in exactly those terms back in the 1950s. He was one of those self-taught guys. Ike liked his work. Anyway, it's pretty short and a fast read.

The True Believer: Thoughts on the Nature of Mass Movements
http://www.amazon.com/True-Believer-Tho ... 0060505915

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '
')Recently I have done a trade with myself. I stopped several indulgences and gave myself permission to be as free as I can imagine being for what's left of my life. I feel like I did when I was 20. Spending most of my time with my family, living way cheaper than before, travelling, going to a big alternative lifestyles festival this week, having a blast of a time. This mere statement will draw twisted derision from certain quarters. We are trained and often bred, slaves. Freedom is a rare and fleeting, daring compromise. If you can, take it.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')I am confidant Rational Humanism will not fill the void, if it could there would be billions of people practicing it today. Humans seem to need a higher power to bless their endeavors, and if yours is better than theirs they will either fight you or convert.

[PrestonSturges]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrestonSturges', '
')That's sort of an eternal theme, and Eric Hoffer described it in exactly those terms back in the 1950s. He was one of those self-taught guys. Ike liked his work. Anyway, it's pretty short and a fast read.

The True Believer: Thoughts on the Nature of Mass Movements
http://www.amazon.com/True-Believer-Tho ... 0060505915

[Newfie]

We are just as reliant on resources as ever be they cheap fossile fuel, water, or stable climate for agriculture. In fact we are reliant on all three, kick out any one leg and the stool falls.

BTW, my retired Leader/pastor buddy tells me Ethical Humanist ranks are down 40% in the last 20 years. 5,000ish to 3,000ish.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'W')e are just as reliant on resources as ever be they cheap fossil fuel, water, or stable climate for agriculture. In fact we are reliant on all three, kick out any one leg and the stool falls.

[Pops]

I've never studied religion but I think it's purpose is twofold, first it reinforces the social bond. We have been cliquish since forever and whether the clique is based on a god, a quarterback, or a message board we need the community and rituals.

But the other facet is the authoritarian part. We are curious and religion provided answers from a position of authority. Of course humans being human, hierarchy is inevitable and who should have higher stature than the one closest to god?

Over the last couple hundred years science has displaced many of the magic explanations of the world around us provided by religion and so undermined religious authority. I think this is happening at a more rapid pace now. Anyone over 30 or 40 is probably amazed at the changes in many aspects of life that were simply taken for granted in the past. Dogma handed down as eternal laws from on high just a generation ago are now quietly ignored. From contraception to civil rights to homosexuality. The change in views about homosexuals has changed radically in just a few years.


So. We no longer need a religion explain to us, for example, how God hung the earth and stars because we now have pretty good evidence how that works. But along with that loss of authoritative knowledge of the secrets of the universe goes the other type of authority, which is the power to hand down edicts regarding, say, contraception, women's roles, same sex marriage - and - dominion and man's place in nature, the primacy of our right to extract whatever wealth we can at the expense of future generations, etc.

From here I can see a continuing decline in the next-to-godliness tradition of religion that places humans atop the natural world pecking order, apart from the natural world. In fact using it as a waiting room for our enjoyment to wait as comfortably as possible our final reward. I think that could be the truly dramatic cultural change.


Recapping,

• Religion has a social bonding function but historically also an authoritative and so authoritarian role.
• Today, advances in science have taken away some of that authority by providing non-denominational explanations for how the natural world works.
• The result could be the separation of church as as social institution from church as human deifying authority and in doing so dethrone man as overlord and reinstating him as an part of the natural world.

[Pops]

I swear on a stack of grandmas oil royalty check stubs that I wasn't reading Greer before I wrote that!
The Sound of the Gravediggers
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') strong case can therefore be made that Nietzsche got the right answer, but was asking the wrong question. He grasped that the collapse of Christian faith in European society meant the end of the entire structure of meanings and values that had God as its first postulate, but thought that the only possible aftermath of that collapse was a collective plunge into the heart of chaos, where humanity would be forced to come to terms with the nonexistence of objective values, and would finally take responsibility for their own role in projecting values on a fundamentally meaningless cosmos; the question that consumed him was how this could be done. A great many other people in his time saw the same possibility, but rejected it on the grounds that such a cosmos was unfit for human habitation. Their question, the question that has shaped the intellectual and cultural life of the western world for several centuries now, is how to find some other first postulate for meaning and value in the absence of faith in the Christian God.