[RdSnt]

It seems as though the facts are appearing all around us, there is just a lot of noise the is obscuring the picture.

Saudi Arabia has been repeatedly saying they are increasing their production but the clear production numbers say they aren't. It seems like a shell game, on a given month they say increase, then another month they say it again, but really they are talking about the same amount.

Imports into the US have been declining the past two or three months.

The North Sea is clearly in a rapid decline, given the timeline I would even describe it as a crash.

Venezuala output is declining.

Alaska is in rapid decline.

There is alot of good data out there that just needs to be sifted. Over time the facts bubble to the surface no matter who is publishing them.

I am coming to the conclusion that we are post-peak.

[KevO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', '
')I am coming to the conclusion that we are post-peak.

[RonMN]

No argument here.

[eric_b]

Agree with your conclusion. Just look at how volatile the price of oil's been
this last year - especially compared to historical averages.

I wonder if there isn't an active 'spin' & 'damage control' campaign (including some
trolls that post here) to downplay, distract, obfuscate and confuse the PO fact
with bogus and irrelevant facts and numbers.

[RdSnt]

No, no conspiracy. Much of the data is showing up in places like this, just no one is collating it into a single story.
Frankly, even if someone did it would just add to the mess of data already there.

Think of this like agnostics and everyone else. Agnostics generally say, okay there maybe a god, so what. I'm concerned with living day-to-day. Everyone else has some faith to bang a drum for and have that as a burden that interferes with living decisions.

While most of us are worriers, on this list we seem to be mostly agnostic. I certainly am. So PO is here, is about to be here, has passed, so what. It's time to move on to preparing to survive the coming mess. And really it is the religious types (in this case meaning those with some type of energy agenda) that are causing all the problems.

[FatherOfTwo]

The Saudi's are increasing output, it's just that they are increasing output of everything but light sweet.
They also are planning on major new projects to increase light sweet... whether or not those projects will be successful, and whether they come on line soon enough to compensate for declines from other fields is another matter entirely.

We could be at peak. But we could just as easily be at the "last hoorah" before the peak, or even entering a bumpy plateau period.

No one has confirmed numbers (except for the Saudi's) so we're all guessing.

[0mar]

The FSU has increased production that, for the most part, offsets decline elsewhere. Not sure on the type of oil, but I'd venture a guess on medium and heavy sweet crudes.