[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dybbuk', '
')
If non-conventional oil production ... causes global oil production to spike much higher, leading to the global economy becoming even more dependent on oil, with China and India becoming hooked just like the Western economies, with renewable energy withering on the vine, setting up a rapid decline in oil production after the inevitable peak, then it could be the most harmful black swan of all time.

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Econ101', 'A')nwar and the Arctic region in general will be open to production. The reserves are being expanded and developed now by the soviets with EXXON at the helm. That should be reassuring to anyone concerned about future oil supplies.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Econ101', 'A')nwar and the Arctic region in general will be open to production. The reserves are being expanded and developed now by the soviets with EXXON at the helm. That should be reassuring to anyone concerned about future oil supplies.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '[')img]http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2008/05/china/aerials/img/8-suburb-homes-714.jpg[/img]
Look!---US-style suburban homes are now being built in China

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '[')img]http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2008/05/china/aerials/img/8-suburb-homes-714.jpg[/img]
Look!---US-style suburban homes are now being built in China

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'T')he National Geographic magazine says this is a photo of a new US-style suburban development in China.

If you can't trust the National Geographic, who can you trust?

[Econ101]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Econ101', 'Y')ou mad braugh?

[Econ101]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'T')he National Geographic magazine says this is a photo of a new US-style suburban development in China.

If you can't trust the National Geographic, who can you trust?

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissident', 'P')eak oil denier nitpicks would imply that the insurance industry could never estimate risk. There has been enough observational data gathered from all of the developed oil fields to characterize their life cycle. There has also been enough data gathered in the last several decades about discovery of said fields to also characterize the probability of further discoveries. It's not just blind linear extrapolation.

There is a reason why non conventional is all the rage. That is because conventional is not providing what is needed by the world economy. And guess what: non-conventional is quite well characterized too. There has been enough field work around the planet to characterize all the geology of the surface and even the seabed. There are no gaps hiding Ghawar scale conventional oil fields.

[ROCKMAN]

T - Most of the yet to be developed unconventional oil has already been taken out of the market. We're producing reserves now that were developed under very different economic conditions. Producing an existing shale well obviously cost much less then drilling a new one.

The general public will never be able to grasp the lag time factor very well.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissident', 'P')eak oil denier nitpicks would imply that the insurance industry could never estimate risk. There has been enough observational data gathered from all of the developed oil fields to characterize their life cycle. There has also been enough data gathered in the last several decades about discovery of said fields to also characterize the probability of further discoveries. It's not just blind linear extrapolation.

There is a reason why non conventional is all the rage. That is because conventional is not providing what is needed by the world economy. And guess what: non-conventional is quite well characterized too. There has been enough field work around the planet to characterize all the geology of the surface and even the seabed. There are no gaps hiding Ghawar scale conventional oil fields.

[JV153]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '.')

Just global light/tight development and canadian tar sand development would be enough to last out the century at current or declining demand rates. Let alone the USGS undiscovered amounts, reserve growth amounts, the Orinoco, those are all icing on the cake in this scenario.

[ROCKMAN]

I'll have to split the sheet with my buddy Adam on this one. The vast majority of the reserves he talks about are technically recoverable...not commercial. Of course in time as prices increase some will shift categories. But IMHO we'll never have such a period long enough to produce anything close to the tech recoverable volume.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'I')'ll have to split the sheet with my buddy Adam on this one. The vast majority of the reserves he talks about are technically recoverable...not commercial. Of course in time as prices increase some will shift categories. But IMHO we'll never have such a period long enough to produce anything close to the tech recoverable volume.

[StarvingLion]

The tar sands is EROEI negative. Price of oil means nothing. It operates today because the central banks are connected thus the EROEI is averaged. In other words the still high EROEI of the saudi fields results in a bogus positive EROEI for the tar sands.

Of course the oilman "experts" on this site are waiting for the oil price to "normalize". That will never happen because then the price of a blouse would be $500 US. These "experts" couldn't see a collapse if you wrote it on their foreheads.

The only places on earth with usable oil (high EROEI) is Siberia and Iran and deep ocean.

The remaining oil in North America is basically worthless. Drilling of that stuff is not preventing collapse.

[ROCKMAN]

For a change I have to go a!ong with the pissed off kitty on this one: "The only places on earth with usable oil (high EROEI) is Siberia and Iran and deep ocean. The remaining oil in North America is basically worthless. Drilling of that stuff is not preventing collapse." Obviously not to the same extreme. And, of course, not based directly on EROEI but on the economics as the Rockman has explained many times. But regardless of how one describes the dynamics at play the futurer of a world so dependent on fossil fuels will not be a happy place. After all, much of tytyhe current world is already a rather sad place with no real prospect of holding where it is let alone getting better.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('StarvingLion', 'T')he tar sands is EROEI negative.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')I would defer to the experts on this one, as to the value of American oil, let alone the trillion barrels that Canada might produce in the future.

And let us not forget, these people didn't fall for peak oil, which puts their prognostications on a higher level of quality than, say, those who are still focused on the irrelevant like EROEI. Caught this one at a meeting of state legislators, interested in risk issue related to energy and electrical supply.