[yeahbut]

I think the biggest thing the peak oil commentators got wrong at that time was natural gas. Heinberg et al couldn't stop talking about the coming natural gas cliff back then. Still, it would be funny to check out some of the oil cheerleaders predictions from back then also... I wonder how many called $90- $100 sustained barrel price amidst a painfully persistent recession? I'm guessing none. Maybe from that perspective, the alarm bell ringers don't seem quite so silly?

[Buddy_J]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '&')quot;would produce billions of barrels of oil" ''US oil production would turn around"

Who's opinion is it? Your? Not good enough. You need to reference a serious oil geologist.

[Ache]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')However, there wasn't single word in the 2006 video about frakking or "unconventional oil". They did mention the tar sands, but they completely missed the importance of shale oil. Colin Campbell kept claiming there would never again be a "new" geologic basin developed that would produce billions of barrels of oil (as we now see with shale oil from the Williston basin and other shale oil basins).

The peak oil experts in 2006---just 7 years ago---- never dreamed that US oil production would turn around and start increasing again due to frakking shale oil.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ache', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')However, there wasn't single word in the 2006 video about frakking or "unconventional oil". They did mention the tar sands, but they completely missed the importance of shale oil. Colin Campbell kept claiming there would never again be a "new" geologic basin developed that would produce billions of barrels of oil (as we now see with shale oil from the Williston basin and other shale oil basins).

The peak oil experts in 2006---just 7 years ago---- never dreamed that US oil production would turn around and start increasing again due to frakking shale oil.


This 2006 film got some things right, and some things wrong.

[Ache]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ache', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')However, there wasn't single word in the 2006 video about frakking or "unconventional oil". They did mention the tar sands, but they completely missed the importance of shale oil. Colin Campbell kept claiming there would never again be a "new" geologic basin developed that would produce billions of barrels of oil (as we now see with shale oil from the Williston basin and other shale oil basins).

The peak oil experts in 2006---just 7 years ago---- never dreamed that US oil production would turn around and start increasing again due to frakking shale oil.


This 2006 film got some things right, and some things wrong.

[seahorse3]

Plant,

You raise interesting questions about how someone like Campbell could miss the shale oil revolution. I haven't watched the DVD.

I did watch, back in 2004, a documentary called "The End of Surburbia" and it was enlightening.

http://endofsuburbia.com/

The End of Surburia was enlightening bc it went into detail about how energy is the foundation of everything, including our economics, and specifically went into how the two biggest drivers of the American economy, housing and cars, were built on cheap energy that wasn't sustainable. Basically, they trace the historical development of the car and housing. Housing and the auto industry were the drivers of the modern American economy from WWII onward. The documentary, released at the height of the housing boom, questioned whether an economy built on housing and cars could continue. I think they were right in suggesting it couldn't, and didn't, continue it is grotesque distorted growth.

Until watching that documentary, I never really appreciated the importance that "oil" and energy in general played in everything we do. I was ignorant and still am. However, I now have an appreciation for energy. I don't take it for granted.

"The End of Suburbia" is worth watching today. Its a good beginning for beginners and the truth of its questions and assertions have been proven over time, so no reason a beginner has to question the assumptions. They can watch and with their own recent experiences understand the questions and concerns raised are legitimate and then move onto how to we handle the issues. The themes presented are true today, higher costs for everything force the view to consider what is sustainable and what is more realistic. It changed my outlook and helped me understand the world, politics, my own individual decisions. I think its worth watching.

[Lore]

It all comes down to a major catastrophic misallocation of our remaining resources. We are just beginning to realize that as supplies are relegated to the growing dependence on unconventional extraction of fossil fuels, prices are can no longer be restrained within limits that won't spell disaster for future economies around the planet.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', 'W')e are just beginning to realize that as supplies are relegated to the growing dependence on unconventional extraction of fossil fuels, prices are can no longer be restrained within limits that won't spell disaster for future economies around the planet.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse3', 'P')lant,

You raise interesting questions about how someone like Campbell could miss the shale oil revolution...

I did watch, back in 2004, a documentary called "The End of Surburbia" and it was enlightening.

http://endofsuburbia.com/

The End of Surburia was enlightening bc it went into detail about how energy is the foundation of everything, including our economics, and specifically went into how the two biggest drivers of the American economy, housing and cars, were built on cheap energy that wasn't sustainable.

[Arthur75]

About the future of oil extraction, in the Scientif American in which Campbell and Lahererre published "the end of cheap oil" in 1998, there were quite a few other articles, they got the tar sands right, horizontal drilling, but no mention of fracking either.
Below pdf with the Campbell Lahererre paper and all these articles :
http://tribune-pic-petrolier.org/wp-con ... re1998.pdf

[Buddy_J]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Buddy_J', 'U')SGS, estimate of 500 billion or so.

[Buddy_J]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')
Obama and the Ds and the MSM and a majority of Americans all think the economy is doing great, and we are on our way to energy independence, and things are generally headed in the right direction.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Arthur75', 'A')bout the future of oil extraction, in the Scientif American in which Campbell and Lahererre published "the end of cheap oil" in 1998, there were quite a few other articles, they got the tar sands right, horizontal drilling, but no mention of fracking either.
Below pdf with the Campbell Lahererre paper and all these articles :
http://tribune-pic-petrolier.org/wp-con ... re1998.pdf

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Buddy_J', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Buddy_J', 'U')SGS, estimate of 500 billion or so.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'm')y negative prognosis was ... predicated on ... the implausibility of the tight-shale drill/fract/decline/re-fract/drill-anew merry-go-round continuing for more than several more investment cycles. Certainly not a decade, perhaps a year or two.

[Buddy_J]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I') followed the link. Still not impressed, not with this sloppy stuff; "The estimates range from 10 to 500 billion bbl (Bbbl) of oil. " Which is it?