PeakOil is You
When is peak oil going to hit hard?
Re: When is peak oil going to hit hard?
by dolanbaker » Thu 14 Feb 2013, 16:32:05
When it is no longer possible to ramp up production/extraction of oil substitutes ie. "tar" sands, biofuel, coal & (fraced)gas etc.
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Our whole economy is based on planned obsolescence.
Hungrymoggy "I am now predicting that Europe will NUKE ITSELF sometime in the first week of January"
Our whole economy is based on planned obsolescence.
Hungrymoggy "I am now predicting that Europe will NUKE ITSELF sometime in the first week of January"
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Re: When is peak oil going to hit hard?
by sparky » Thu 14 Feb 2013, 17:39:38
.
On the subject of civilization collapse , the two case most mentioned are Easter Island and the Maya's
Easter Island decline seems to be linked to overpopulation and ecological collapse
The Maya's seems to have been hit by a confluence of bad stuff ,
the two above factors plus migrant invasion , popular revolts , a change in the belief system
and the odd war now and again
some remote Mayan cities still survived until the Spaniards arrival
The sure thing is that public spending on the grand scale stopped ,
there was some poorly executed repairs , a sure sign of the impoverishment of the rulers
By the way everyone here talk of Peak production , that is correct but misleading
the really, really important thing is Peak Export
the production which is available to those who do not have oil
On the subject of civilization collapse , the two case most mentioned are Easter Island and the Maya's
Easter Island decline seems to be linked to overpopulation and ecological collapse
The Maya's seems to have been hit by a confluence of bad stuff ,
the two above factors plus migrant invasion , popular revolts , a change in the belief system
and the odd war now and again
some remote Mayan cities still survived until the Spaniards arrival
The sure thing is that public spending on the grand scale stopped ,
there was some poorly executed repairs , a sure sign of the impoverishment of the rulers
By the way everyone here talk of Peak production , that is correct but misleading
the really, really important thing is Peak Export
the production which is available to those who do not have oil
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sparky - Intermediate Crude
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Re: When is peak oil going to hit hard?
by sparky » Thu 14 Feb 2013, 18:06:38
.
A though just shot through my mind
... crude oil exports are traded in U.S. dollars ,
creating a seemingly un-stalkable demand for those green digital bits
a rise in nominal prices would then contend with a drop in international oil trade
consumer countries do not need dollard in their own market .
one more uncertainty to be throw into the balance I guess
A though just shot through my mind
... crude oil exports are traded in U.S. dollars ,
creating a seemingly un-stalkable demand for those green digital bits
a rise in nominal prices would then contend with a drop in international oil trade
consumer countries do not need dollard in their own market .
one more uncertainty to be throw into the balance I guess
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Re: When is peak oil going to hit hard?
by Keith_McClary » Fri 15 Feb 2013, 02:25:38
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Econ101', 'T')he federal government has been working hard by not allowing federally controlled resources to be developed.
You keep saying that, but didn't they teach you in 101 that oil is a world market and these resources (not reserves) are a drop in the bucket globally. As long as USA#1 is a net importer this will not affect USA#1 prices, although it may help with the balance of payments (do they teach that in 101?).Facebook knows you're a dog.
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Re: When is peak oil going to hit hard?
by Econ101 » Fri 15 Feb 2013, 06:11:37
There is no physical shortage of oil limiting production, only political policy keeps us from adequate reliable supplies.
There is no real increase in the cost of oil, only the debasement of the currency. This provides the illusion of rising energy costs. The inflation being caused by fiscal policy is then put off on speculators or big oil. The government is no longer to blame they are here to help! Remember, in your confusion, the silver quarter. It might help you out of your myopia.
There is no real increase in the cost of oil, only the debasement of the currency. This provides the illusion of rising energy costs. The inflation being caused by fiscal policy is then put off on speculators or big oil. The government is no longer to blame they are here to help! Remember, in your confusion, the silver quarter. It might help you out of your myopia.
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Re: When is peak oil going to hit hard?
by Buddy_J » Fri 15 Feb 2013, 10:38:30
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Econ101', '
')There is no real increase in the cost of oil, only the debasement of the currency. This provides the illusion of rising energy costs.
')There is no real increase in the cost of oil, only the debasement of the currency. This provides the illusion of rising energy costs.
The real cost of crude oil has been rising for years now, that is easy enough to show.And of course inflation has a hand in how this price has changed over time.
However, the nominal tripling of prices over the past decade would normally provide more than enough front money for industry to buy off whatever number of politicians they need to change the rules to allow access to the oil you think is being withheld. Certainly the treehuggers didn't stand a chance of stopping the TransAlaskan pipeline once rising prices provided the same type of motivation back in the 70's.
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Re: When is peak oil going to hit hard?
by ian807 » Fri 15 Feb 2013, 14:46:23
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Econ101', 'T')here is no physical shortage of oil limiting production, only political policy keeps us from adequate reliable supplies.
Um. No. Political policy, is as usual, irrelevant. For that matter whether we've officially hit peak oil or not is irrelevant.
Oil supply does not equal energy supply. At a macro level, what we as humans, in aggregate, are purchasing is positive net energy. There is, worldwide, a growing shortage of positive net energy by volume from oil. Commodity shortages, in this case "net energy by volume" cause price increases. This is invisible at the micro level. To the guy filling his car, a gallon of gas has as much energy as ever, but now he's paying more for it, since it takes more energy and therefore, more money, to get it.
Predictable result? Oil prices have not decreased significantly.
Future predictable result? Absent of some major reduction in demand caused by say, the invention of significant battery storage, oil and gasoline prices will increase for the foreseeable future.
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Re: When is peak oil going to hit hard?
by Econ101 » Sat 16 Feb 2013, 07:36:52
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Buddy_J', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Econ101', '
')There is no real increase in the cost of oil, only the debasement of the currency. This provides the illusion of rising energy costs.
')There is no real increase in the cost of oil, only the debasement of the currency. This provides the illusion of rising energy costs.
The real cost of crude oil has been rising for years now, that is easy enough to show.And of course inflation has a hand in how this price has changed over time.
However, the nominal tripling of prices over the past decade would normally provide more than enough front money for industry to buy off whatever number of politicians they need to change the rules to allow access to the oil you think is being withheld. Certainly the treehuggers didn't stand a chance of stopping the TransAlaskan pipeline once rising prices provided the same type of motivation back in the 70's.
Your assertion prices have tripled is a dollar/inflation illusion. Crude values when measured correctly are actually down below historic averages.
The ratio of value between commodities remains realativly stable overtime. The ratio of dollars to commodities grows dramatically in periods of inflation. We are experiencing this changing ratio of dollars to commodities right now, not because of any oil shortage, rather government fiscal policy is destroying the dollars value creating an illusion of expensive energy and everything else measured in dollars for that matter, including silver quarters which still equal the value of a gallon of gas.
Dollar pricing is deceptive because the dollar has no intrinsic value or limit on supply. A clearer picture and one that might help some understand the value issue of oil and economy more clearly is looking at the price of oil using gold as the currency.
Since the mid 1970s the average ratio of gold to oil has been .075 oz per barrel. Since the Bakken surge and shale revolution around the world we see that ratio peaking at .16 oz/brl in the 2004-2007 time frame. I believe, other than short term market forces, the main driver of higher prices at that time was the cost of developing infrastructure for all the new oil developments world-wide. Start-up is costly.
Since about 2008 oil has been trading consistently below the .075 oz/brl average suggesting oil is actually cheaper than it has been historically.
Your assertions of corruption are meaningless speculation and hyperbole. Almost all federal lands are off limits to oil production.
Last edited by Econ101 on Sat 16 Feb 2013, 09:35:14, edited 4 times in total.
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