$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '5')5 years at today's consumption rate... of course everybody is expecting that to grow somewhat, I would imagine.
Well, if you have steady growth in the rate of consumption of that natgas, this is what will happen:
At 1 percent growth the resource will last : 44 years
At 2 percent growth the resource will last : 37 years
At 3 percent growth the resource will last : 33 years
At 4 percent growth the resource will last : 30 years
At 5 percent growth the resource will last : 27 years
At 6 percent growth the resource will last : 25 years
At 7 percent growth the resource will last : 23 years
At 8 percent growth the resource will last : 22 years
At 9 percent growth the resource will last : 21 years
At 10 percent growth the resource will last : 20 years
So just 5% growth per year will halve the time that resource will be exhausted.
Of course, we know you can't pump it all out at ever increasing rates, so that can't happen. We know it will peak at about half that time and start to go down.
In light of these plain facts, OF2 just seems so shrill, doesn't he?
PeakOil is You
6,622,000,000,000,000 cubic feet
Re: 6,622,000,000,000,000 cubic feet
by hurricanechaser » Wed 06 Feb 2013, 08:45:39
you had forgotten to take EROIE to calclation.it is ~2 for shale oil.it would eventually halve the resources.check it out
- hurricanechaser
- Wood
- Posts: 4
- Joined: Tue 05 Feb 2013, 10:08:21
Re: 6,622,000,000,000,000 cubic feet
by ralfy » Wed 06 Feb 2013, 10:47:36
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '5')5 years at today's consumption rate... of course everybody is expecting that to grow somewhat, I would imagine.
[...]
In light of these plain facts, OF2 just seems so shrill, doesn't he?
[...]
In light of these plain facts, OF2 just seems so shrill, doesn't he?
In light of the actual facts, it appears joewp doesn't have the facts correct. From the link:
Fact #1: 2009 Natural Gas Market - Consumption: 106.7 Tcf
Fact #2: Technically Recoverable Shale Gas Resources (in basins studied): 6,622 Tcf
Fact #3: Proved Natural Gas Reserves: 6,609 Tcf
There is probably some overlap of "proved reserves" with the "technically recoverable shale gas resources," particularly in the US and Canada, but in the rest of the world the shale gas phenomenon is in its baby stages, or not even started at all. So you first do:
6,622 + 6,609 = 13,231 Tcf total resources. Maybe round it down to 13,000 Tcf to take into account the fact that much of the proved reserves in the US and Canada is already included in the technically recoverable shale gas resources. So you get . . .
13,000 / 106.7 = 121.8 years of consumption at 2009 rates.
But we're not done. Notice the map from the document which Keith posted above: There are large areas of the world which were not assessed, including known hydrocarbon-rich areas such as the Middle East and Russia. So the 13,000 Tcf and 121.8 years is conservative. Bump up those numbers to take into account the un-assessed geography, and then you can realistically do your little exercise taking into account increased consumption rates.
Now, who is the shrill?
What you need is the production rate. For example, from what I remember the estimate given in another thread was 12 Mb/d for North America. Current consumption for the U.S. alone is around 19 Mb/d.
Globally, the IEA estimates a 9-pct increase in energy production from all oil and gas sources in two decades. But to maintain global economic growth energy demand may have to go up around 2 pct a year.
-
ralfy - Light Sweet Crude
- Posts: 5651
- Joined: Sat 28 Mar 2009, 11:36:38
- Location: The Wasteland
22 posts
• Page 2 of 2 • 1, 2
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests