[SamInNebraska]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')Hubbert also used a pencil in his calculations, but the issue of peak oil has little to do with pencil lead. It is about production rates--- the peak in production rates.

[SamInNebraska]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dybbuk', '
')Perhaps some doomers made a big mistake by predicting imminent collapse.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'D')on't forget methane on Jupiter!

What I can't figure out is if there is 20 million tons of gold in the earth's oceans, why is gold so expensive?

[Dybbuk]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SamInNebraska', 'W')hat about the boy who cried wolf component?

[SamInNebraska]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SamInNebraska', ' ')Therefore, cumulative production, reserves, and resources all must be part of the conversation to calculate the thing you are fixated on...production rates.

[dorlomin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dybbuk', '
')Perhaps some doomers made a big mistake by predicting imminent collapse.

[SamInNebraska]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dybbuk', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SamInNebraska', 'W')hat about the boy who cried wolf component?

[SamInNebraska]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'Y')ou have it backward Sam. Both Hubbert and Defreyess determine reserves under the production curve, which they arrive at with an incredibly complex calculus (in Hubbert's case) or pretty simple algerbra using Deffreyes linearization. There are other methods; mega-fields analysis and discovery/peak observation.

[dissident]

Peak oil denier nitpicks would imply that the insurance industry could never estimate risk. There has been enough observational data gathered from all of the developed oil fields to characterize their life cycle. There has also been enough data gathered in the last several decades about discovery of said fields to also characterize the probability of further discoveries. It's not just blind linear extrapolation.

There is a reason why non conventional is all the rage. That is because conventional is not providing what is needed by the world economy. And guess what: non-conventional is quite well characterized too. There has been enough field work around the planet to characterize all the geology of the surface and even the seabed. There are no gaps hiding Ghawar scale conventional oil fields or vast bitumenous sand deposits. We know that hydrocarbon deposits are kerogen in the Green River basin and not light sweet crude. It's only lying turd journalists who neglect to mention this and imply there are trillions of barrels of oil. When they build those nuclear power plants to convert kerogen into oil then there will be something to talk about.

[SamInNebraska]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'S')am, what complete paranoid nonsense. Are you a child? Nobody is trying to deceive you. We are looking for the truth. Do you really expect petroleum to last forever?

[SamInNebraska]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissident', 'P')eak oil denier nitpicks would imply that the insurance industry could never estimate risk. There has been enough observational data gathered from all of the developed oil fields to characterize their life cycle. There has also been enough data gathered in the last several decades about discovery of said fields to also characterize the probability of further discoveries. It's not just blind linear extrapolation.

[meemoe_uk]

One of my favorite writers at WUWT, Willis Eschenbach has written a piece on peak oil. It's nice to read that he's got pretty much the same criticism I have about non \ conventional oil. Every year oil technology improves, so previous years conventions are gradually replaced in the industry. So this idea of drawing a line in the sand to say what constitutes conventional and non-con is meaningless when weighing up peak oil.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/02/02/c ... more-78653

[Beery1]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', 'O')ne of my favorite writers at WUWT, Willis Eschenbach has written a piece on peak oil.

[dorlomin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', 'O')ne of my favorite writers at ....

[dorlomin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SamInNebraska', 'T')rue. I was thinking more about the psychological conditioning.