[Ibon]

Here is a thought.

When EROEI was 1 : 100 suburbia and an affluent middle class was possible. When EROEI is 1 : 4 and going down we are also heading down the historical norm of a small elite and peasants.

For the ever smaller fraction of our society that remains the privileged oil consumer Peak Oil will never happen. For those increasing numbers of the disenfranchised it already has.

Relevant for modern society it is far better to define peak oil by the cost of energy whose consequence excludes you from being part of the privileged still able to consume it. A few obvious early examples; when you can no longer afford to own and maintain an automobile. When you can no longer afford airplane tickets.

A little later on it will go like this. At some point increasing energy costs will create an inflationary economic environment where you will see your ability to consume slowly curtailed back to the very basics in a steady progression until you are a member of the underclass, a peasant, a serf.

There will always remain a very small elite who will never experience peak oil.

How many of us (or our children) on this board can claim to even have a chance in hell of being a member of this privileged elite in the next 20-50 years?

[Shaved Monkey]

If someone had deliberately downsized to avoid the rush and chosen a self sustaining life on his fertile functioning permaculture property, in a like minded community,he would probably do as well as the elite, who could still afford the high prices but would have a massively diminished choice to fulfil their desires.
Genuinely wanting and needing less is the major key to having a good life,that needs a quantum shift in thinking.
Staying healthy would be a bonus,but doctors in Greece are bartering food for services so there is still hope.

[SeaGypsy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')
Relevant for modern society it is far better to define peak oil by the cost of energy whose consequence excludes you from being part of the privileged still able to consume it. A few obvious early examples; when you can no longer afford to own and maintain an automobile. When you can no longer afford airplane tickets.

A little later on it will go like this. At some point increasing energy costs will create an inflationary economic environment where you will see your ability to consume slowly curtailed back to the very basics in a steady progression until you are a member of the underclass, a peasant, a serf.

[Loki]

Ibon, I think what you're basically describing is the widening of the gulf in what is becoming a two-tier society, at least here in the US. Our large middle class is really the only thing that distinguishes us from a Third World country, but they haven't been faring so well the last couple decades, and I really don't see how this trend will be reversed given the converging catastrophes. Most of us will just get poorer and poorer until there is hardy a middle class left, but there will always be a small minority whose vast wealth will cushion the effects of hard resource limits.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ShavedMonkey', 'I')f someone had deliberately downsized to avoid the rush and chosen a self sustaining life on his fertile functioning permaculture property, in a like minded community,he would probably do as well as the elite, who could still afford the high prices but would have a massively diminished choice to fulfil their desires.

[ralfy]

The biggest catch of all is that much of the wealth of the elite consists of money, and that money has value only as long as increasing production and consumption of goods and services are maintained. The irony, then, is that for the rich to remain so, more of the poor have to become part of the middle class. Otherwise....

[SeaGypsy]

Good points all. It seems the longer one holds on to the rapidly slipping illusion of middle class life the more one becomes trapped in the inevitable slide. There may never be a better opportunity than now to jump ship, before the water becomes full of fleeing rats.

[Narz]

The Simpsons (episode 24, season 9) just had a "prepper" episode. It was kind of amusing actually.

[Ibon]

After reading the last couple of posts it is worth reminding everyone that one of the psychological benefits of departing from oil gluttony and moving toward oil scarcity is that the consequences remove mediocrity. There will be both more suffering and more gratefulness at the extremes and far less ambivalence and ennui and less superficial couch potato mindless consumption.

Life is better lived when one is experiencing the extremes of hardship and gratefulness rather than hanging, as we have for most of the past 50 years, in a gluttoness state of satiating all our whims.

There is a positive side to moving back to the historical norms where one can not count on being constantly held by an affluent external environment. This cultivates a richer inner environment, something our collective modern culture is sorely lacking.

[hurricanechaser]

embrace it..we dont want them embrace it,merely acknowledge

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')You must be speaking for yourself Ibon, not the billions in North Africa, Haiti, Asia already one barrel away from hunger and depredation. The piper has his arms outstretched and is collecting his due. As for me, I have lived a materially comfortable life, yet it is not a mediocre one. I personally strive to do the best I can and believe my inner life is not lacking, even though no one will remember me or my works. That is of no consequence.

[WildRose]

Over the past few years, increasing energy costs have made quite a dent in my family's standard of living, and I know we are in good company. We are gainfully employed and manage to pay the bills but there isn't much left to save, with the sting of high utility bills and higher food prices. Most families like ours, who are working and just managing, can't afford to buy new appliances or cars or pay for a vacation without putting it on a Mastercard, which is something we won't do. I'm guess I'm waiting to see what's going to happen when the majority of people in the wealthier countries can no longer put cars and appliances and vacations on credit.

What will happen in our cities? I'd like to imagine teenagers getting together in a schoolyard to play sports in their spare time, and adults helping each other out in their gardens and maybe bartering some services. But then there's the idea of the whole transportation-in-the-city and jobs/lower-paying-jobs/no jobs for a lot of disappointed people. And I'm wondering about the transition from Iaptops and personal automobiles and fixation on shopping, thinking how many generations will it take to feel grateful for what we have left?

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WildRose', ' ')I'm guess I'm waiting to see what's going to happen when the majority of people in the wealthier countries can no longer put cars and appliances and vacations on credit.

[WildRose]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WildRose', ' ')I'm guess I'm waiting to see what's going to happen when the majority of people in the wealthier countries can no longer put cars and appliances and vacations on credit.

[Buddy_J]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')If you are lucky enough to live in Europe, you'll at least be able to take trains and subways and trams to find work. If you are here in the US, the lack of mass transit will contribute to people's inability to get around to do their jobs and will produce even more poverty.

[Buddy_J]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')But suburban rail (that breeches municipalities) requires collaboration and strong local, regional, state, even national government.

[lper100km]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')A little later on it will go like this. At some point increasing energy costs will create an inflationary economic environment where you will see your ability to consume slowly curtailed back to the very basics in a steady progression until you are a member of the underclass, a peasant, a serf.

There will always remain a very small elite who will never experience peak oil.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Buddy_J', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')If you are lucky enough to live in Europe, you'll at least be able to take trains and subways and trams to find work. If you are here in the US, the lack of mass transit will contribute to people's inability to get around to do their jobs and will produce even more poverty.