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This is the WORST RECOVERY EVER

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Re: This is the WORST RECOVERY EVER

Postby dorlomin » Thu 31 Jan 2013, 08:07:58

The converging catastrophes. Some of this is the dissaperance of large amounts of tax into black holes and loop holes by large corperations (hello Google), other parts are the near endless of supply of low cost wage meaning the labour value of goods is now very low, destroying western middle classes. Some of this is the feedback from the debt binge of the 2000s and the housing housing boom dying and other parts of this crisis is off course the end of cheap energy.

And this is only the beginning. The real deep trouble is years and even decades away.

There is no one reason for this perma-crisis. There is certainly no one solution (if there is any). Neither Keynsian spending will make the good times come back, nor cutting government spending. The old solutions are a fools gold.
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Re: This is the WORST RECOVERY EVER

Postby Plantagenet » Thu 31 Jan 2013, 13:08:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', '
')
There is no one reason for this perma-crisis.


High energy costs are a good candidate for an underlying cause to start the crisis, and a good candidate for explaining why the crisis continues.

We hit Peak Oil in late 2005, the price of oil exploded, and economic dominoes started tumbling around the world. While the spot price of oil briefly hit $148/bbl in 2008 and has appeared to decrease since, actually its still been going up when you average oil prices through the year. Taking the average cost through the year, last year saw the highest energy costs on record.

No wonder the US since mid-2009 has been in the WORST RECOVERY EVER.
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Re: This is the WORST RECOVERY EVER

Postby Plantagenet » Thu 31 Jan 2013, 14:02:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')High energy costs are a good candidate for an underlying cause to start the crisis, and a good candidate for explaining why the crisis continues.

We hit Peak Oil in late 2005, the price of oil exploded, and economic dominoes started tumbling around the world. While the spot price of oil briefly hit $148/bbl in 2008 and has appeared to decrease since, actually its still been going up when you average oil prices through the year. Taking the average cost through the year, last year saw the highest energy costs on record.

No wonder the US since mid-2009 has been in the WORST RECOVERY EVER.

it was all Obama's fault?


Peak Oil isn't Obama's fault, but his failure to understand the problem and enact policies in response to Peak Oil absolutely is Obama's fault. :idea:
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Re: This is the WORST RECOVERY EVER

Postby Quinny » Thu 31 Jan 2013, 16:06:32

Bollocks
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Re: This is the WORST RECOVERY EVER

Postby Plantagenet » Thu 31 Jan 2013, 16:28:27

Obama terminates his "Jobs Council".

Obama cancels "Jobs Council"

I guess the jobs council's work is done. Obama's job is safe, so the jobs council can disband.

Too bad about the 12 million people in the USA still without jobs---their lives are trashed but who cares----now that the election is over any pretense this administration cares about jobs is over and the millions who remain unemployed---well they're just nameless casualties of the WORST RECOVERY EVER. :roll:
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Re: This is the WORST RECOVERY EVER

Postby basil_hayden » Thu 31 Jan 2013, 16:48:07

Wake up! This is not part of the "recovery", this your new normal, get used to it.
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Re: This is the WORST RECOVERY EVER

Postby Plantagenet » Fri 01 Feb 2013, 00:41:44

Sen. Harry Reid, leader of the the Senate, clearly rattled by the negative GDP in the 4th qtr, proclaimed today "We are in a recovery!"

But he left out the part about it being the WORST RECOVERY EVER. :roll:
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Re: This is the WORST RECOVERY EVER

Postby kublikhan » Fri 01 Feb 2013, 01:06:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', 'i')t's better than the great depression
No its not.

Read the linkie in the first post.

In 1929 people lost their jobs and stood in breadlines. In 2008 people lost their jobs and went on unemployment, foodstamps, and disability

After the 1929 crash there was a recovery. Things were going pretty good by 1936 when there was a double dip.

After the 2008 crash there was a recovery. This recovery is worse than the post-1929 recovery.

This is the worst recovery ever.
I clicked on the linkie that the first post got its data from(the St Louis Fed). They say the data was not for all US recoveries ever, it was only for the last 10 recoveries(IE, post WWII). So you could say it's the worst recovery post WWII, but not the worst recovery ever. I guess "Worst post WWII recovery" just doesn't have the same ring to it though.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')The charts plot Real Gross Domestic Product (SAAR, Chn. 2005$) and its major components; each series is indexed to 100 at the start of the expansion. The current expansion (green line) started in the third quarter of 2009. The solid blue line indicates the average over the past ten expansions. The two dashed lines report the highest and lowest values recorded across the past ten expansions.
United States GDP Data
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Re: This is the WORST RECOVERY EVER

Postby dolanbaker » Fri 01 Feb 2013, 03:46:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('basil_hayden', 'W')ake up! This is not part of the "recovery", this your new normal, get used to it.

+1
When I tell people that, they look at me as if I've two heads, but more recently, people are starting to think I'm correct!
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Re: This is the WORST RECOVERY EVER

Postby Plantagenet » Fri 01 Feb 2013, 13:38:39

Unemployment just went back up to 7.9%. Of course, this number doesn't include all the people who don't get counted because they are "discouraged"----another 170,000 people were added to the discouraged category just in December.

What kind of recovery results in an INCREASING unemployment rate and INCREASES in the number of discouraged worker? Thats easy---the WORST RECOVERY EVER. 8)
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Re: This is the WORST RECOVERY EVER

Postby mmasters » Fri 01 Feb 2013, 13:48:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('basil_hayden', 'W')ake up! This is not part of the "recovery", this your new normal, get used to it.

+1
When I tell people that, they look at me as if I've two heads, but more recently, people are starting to think I'm correct!

+1000000 why complain about what the polititians say, this is just the new normal.
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Re: This is the WORST RECOVERY EVER

Postby kublikhan » Fri 01 Feb 2013, 14:22:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 't')he WORST RECOVERY EVER.
I just debunked this a few posts ago. It's not the worst recovery ever.
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Re: This is the WORST RECOVERY EVER

Postby Plantagenet » Fri 01 Feb 2013, 14:35:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')why complain about what the polititians say, this is just the new normal.


So you are resigned to the "new normal"?

This reminds me of Thoreau's famous thought on why so many people passively accept whatever happens.

The mass of men lead lives of quiet desperation. What is called resignation is confirmed desperation.
Henry David Thoreau

It also reminds me of Boxer, the stolid workhorse in Orwell's Animal Farm, who passively goes along with Napoleon, the all-too-clever pig who runs Animal Farm. When Napoleon screws things up at Animal Farm, Boxer just accepts it and says

Why complain about politicians this is just the new normal I'll work harder Napoleon is always right.

Image
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Re: This is the WORST RECOVERY EVER

Postby Plantagenet » Fri 01 Feb 2013, 14:58:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'I')t's not the worst recovery ever.


You didn't even look at the great depression data....its dishonest for you to claim this isn't the WORST RECOVERY EVER when you don't even bother to look at the data from the Great Depression. :roll:

Check out the data --- it shows this is the WORST RECOVERY EVER. If you look at GDP growth in the Great Depression in 1934, 1935 and 1936 it was up near 10% for each of those three years. They had ca. 10% growth for three years in the middle of the great depression before Roosevelt instituted tax increases after the 1936 election and the economy collapsed again in 1937!

In case you didn't notice, lack of growth is the big problem now. We're going into our fifth year since the 2008 collapse and GDP growth in the current recovery has only been 1-2.5%, and in the most recent quarter GDP actually shrank. Didn't you notice----the GDP went DOWN last quarter.

Do the math----10% GDP growth during years 5-7 in the great depression is way more than 1-2.5% GDP growth we're getting now and miles better than the -.1% collapse in GDP during Q4 2012. We are now entering year 5 since the 2008 collapse and growth is still elusive---in fact the GDP is actually shrinking. The lack of growth in GDP we are having means this is the WORST RECOVERY EVER.
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Re: This is the WORST RECOVERY EVER

Postby kublikhan » Fri 01 Feb 2013, 15:43:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'Y')ou didn't even look at the great depression data....its dishonest for you to claim this isn't the WORST RECOVERY EVER when you don't even bother to look at the data from the Great Depression.
In fact I did look at the data from the great depression. I have posted about it several times. See below for more.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'I')f you look at GDP growth in the Great Depression in 1934, 1935 and 1936 it was up near 10% for each of those three years. They had ca. 10% growth for three years in the middle of the great depression before Roosevelt instituted tax increases after the 1936 election and the economy collapsed again in 1937!
Exactly, it took seven years from 1929 to 1936 for GDP to break through it's pre-crash level. We did that in just 2 years, more than 3 times faster. Our unemployment rate is also much better than it was in 1936. The unemployment rate did not even fall below 10% until 1941!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n case you didn't notice, lack of growth is the big problem now. We're going into our fifth year since the 2008 collapse and GDP growth in the current recovery has only been 1-2.5%, and in the most recent quarter GDP actually shrank. Didn't you notice----the GDP went DOWN last quarter.

Do the math----10% GDP growth during years 5-7 in the great depression is way more than 1-2.5% GDP growth we're getting now and miles better than the -.1% collapse in GDP during Q4 2012. We are now entering year 5 since the 2008 collapse and growth is still elusive---in fact the GDP is actually shrinking. The lack of growth in GDP we are having means this is the WORST RECOVERY EVER.
5 years later and our GDP has already smashed through 2008 levels. 5 years after 1929, they still hadn't equaled pre-crash levels yet.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he current situation is nowhere near as bad as the situation during the 1930′s. Since the start of the recession in late 2007, the monthly unemployment rate has risen from 4.9 percent to 7.6 percent in January 2009. Before thinking about the Great Depression, realize that unemployment rates have exceeded 7 percent in 139 months since World War II. This includes 32 months between 1974 and 1977, 76 months between 1980 and 1986, and 21 more between 1991 and 1993. The Great Depression was far more disastrous. One year after the stock market crash of 1929, the unemployment rate had risen from 2 percent to 10.8 percent. The next year it was 16.8 percent. Then unemployment rates rose above 20 percent for four straight years! It does not end there. The unemployment rate exceeded 14 percent for five more years until finally dropping below 10 percent again in 1941.

real G.D.P. in the fourth quarter of 2008 was almost identical to real G.D.P. in the fourth quarter of 2007. How does this compare with the Great Depression? In 1930, Americans produced 8.6 percent fewer final goods and services than in 1929, in 1931 15 percent less, and in 1932 and 1933 roughly 26 percent less than in 1929. It is hard to conceptualize such a drop in G.D.P. Consider this: the 1932 and 1933 figures would have been the equivalent of shutting down all production of goods and services west of the Mississippi River. Annual real G.D.P. did not reach its 1929 level again until 1936. We are experiencing pain now, but the problems of the Great Depression were several magnitudes greater.
This Is Not Another Great Depression

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')conomists often assert that we are in the worst recovery since the Great Depression. Are we? Not technically, but it’s still unusually bad.

I calculated the percentage change, from business cycle trough to business cycle peak, for a handful of economic indicators in all the previous postwar recessions, and compared those to the track record for the current recovery. This isn’t an entirely fair comparison, of course, since (hopefully) the economy has not yet peaked and will continue to expand. Even so, on almost every measure I looked at, there was at least one previous (completed) recovery that performed worse.

In most cases, it was the short-lived recovery that began in July 1980 and that “double-dipped” back into recession just a year later. With only 12 months to grow, the economy didn’t get very far.
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Re: This is the WORST RECOVERY EVER

Postby Plantagenet » Fri 01 Feb 2013, 17:45:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ')Our unemployment rate is also much better than it was in 1936. The unemployment rate did not even fall below 10% until 1941!


Don't you even know that the stat for unemployment was revamped ca. 30 years ago? The category for "discouraged worker" didn't exist back in the depression. If you count the millions of unemployed "discouraged workers" now ---as they were included in the depression ----our current unemployment rate is way over 10% right now ----just like the Great Depression..

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ')real G.D.P. in the fourth quarter of 2008 was almost identical to real G.D.P. in the fourth quarter of 2007. How does this compare with the Great Depression?


You are missing the point. We're in the year 2013 now--five years after the collapse in 2008. GDP growth now is nil. In contrast, the GDP was growing by ca. 10% a year five years after 1929.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ')on almost every measure I looked at, there was at least one previous (completed) recovery that performed worse.


Yes, that was true several years ago. BUT when you include the slow growth in 2012 this is the WORST RECOVERY EVER. AND when you update the Q4 2012 -.1% GDP shrinkage its even more clear that this is the WORST RECOVERY EVER.

So that leaves the great depression----is the current recovery even worse then the great depression? You wrote a long post, but you are comparing magnitudes of collapse instead of comparing magnitudes of recovery---the GDP collapse in 1929 was bigger then the GDP collapse in 2008. But that isn't what a recovery is---a recovery is the growth that occurs AFTER the collapse. If you look at the GDP growth during the recovery from the trough then my point is clear YES--THIS IS THE WORST RECOVERY EVER. The three years of ca. 10% GDP growth from 1934-36 far exceeds the GDP growth we are looking at at the same time in our post-collapse recovery. Its pretty simple----10% GDP growth per year in the great depression is much much better then the -.1% year over year GDP shrinkage we just had, and much better then any growth we've seen from 2008-2012, and much better then the projected growth for the rest of 2013. That means this is the WORST RECOVERY EVER.
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Re: This is the WORST RECOVERY EVER

Postby kublikhan » Fri 01 Feb 2013, 18:33:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'D')on't you even know that the stat for unemployment was revamped ca. 30 years ago? The category for "discouraged worker" didn't exist back in the depression. If you count the millions of unemployed "discouraged workers" now ---as they were included in the depression ----our current unemployment rate is way over 10% right now ----just like the Great Depression..
Actually I did know about the changes to how unemployment is measured. Infact, I have posted on this topic several times as well. Here's just one of my posts on this topic. It points out that no matter how you measure unemployment, things were much worse during the Great Depression. Even the recovery back then had much higher levels of unemployment and underemployment than now:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'T')he actual unemployment rate may indeed by higher than the official rate, but it is not true to say this is the worst labor market in US history. The Great Depression was easily worse than this, even if measuring U6 instead of U3, or using a broader labor market comparison:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') frequent meme propounded in the economic blogosphere is that U6 unemployment, running near 17% now, is a truer measure (and there are good reasons to believe it is), so that means we have unemployment already approaching Great Depression levels of 25%. Left out of the comparison is the fact that U3 and U6 measurements didn't exist during the 1930s. So, is the 25% unemployment peak for the Great Depression a fair comparison to U6 unemployment today?

N. Andrews compared historical versions of unemployment statistics with the modern U3 and U6 versions. Based on that research, he was able to generate a mathematical formula to calculate U3 and U6 unemployment for the entire period since 1900. He found that at the peak of the Great Depression, U3 was 25.2%. U6 was 37.6%. Here's the resulting graph:
Image

If Nelson is correct, the notion in the blogosphere that current U6 unemployment levels are close to those of the Great Depression appears to be false, and indeed, far off the mark. Using Nelson's methodology, our current U3 and U6 unemployment are both very close to the figures in 1930, which is bad enough. But they are less than half of the unemployment that existed at the peak of the Great Depression.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') good deal of commentary has addressed similarities between the recession that began in December 2007 and the Great Depression. Comparisons between the two have extended beyond conditions in financial markets to conditions in the labor market. The analogy appears to be fueled by projections that the unemployment rate could reach double digits in the coming months. Little if any comparative labor market research has been undertaken, however. To address the situation, this report analyzes the experiences of workers during the 1930s,

A labor market analysis of the Great Depression finds that many workers were unemployed for much longer than one year. Of those fortunate to have jobs, many experienced cutbacks in hours (i.e., involuntary part-time employment).

there remain substantial differences between the Great Depression and the current recession:
• In 1933, at the depth of the Depression, one in four workers was unemployed. In contrast, the unemployment rate had risen to 9.4% by May 2009. The number of jobs on nonfarm payrolls fell 24.3% between 1929 and 1933. Thus far during the current recession, firms have cut nonfarm employment by 4.3%. The first 17 months of the ongoing recession compare favorably with the first two years of the Depression as well.

• In addition to the greater magnitude of unemployment and job loss during the early 1930s as compared with today, the implications of being unemployed have changed much in the intervening years. One reason for the altered situation facing today’s unemployed is the increased prevalence of families in which both spouses work. Another is the deeper drop in earnings and hours worked that occurred during the Depression. And, the social safety net that is now available to displaced workers and their families did not exist before the onset of the Great Depression.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 't')he GDP collapse in 1929 was bigger then the GDP collapse in 2008. But that isn't what a recovery is---a recovery is the growth that occurs AFTER the collapse. If you look at the GDP growth during the recovery from the trough then my point is clear YES--THIS IS THE WORST RECOVERY EVERThat is one possible metric of a recovery. Another is the measure the well being of the people, not GDP. One possible metric for this would be unemployment. And as I pointed out above and it previous posts, unemployment was far worse in 1936 than it is now.

And the very fact that GDP did not collapse as hard as it did in 1929 likely explains the tepid recovery. If GDP was allowed to drop as hard as it did in 1929, we would also likely have seen a more robust recovery once the free fall was over. We would also have seen much greater misery in the form of unemployment, lost savings, etc. Thus we took a different path. Our current path is closer to the model Japan followed after it's bust, not the one the US followed post 1929. On this path, we trade a long period of stagnation instead of a rapid crash and fall model. Personally, I am glad that we did not crash as hard as the Great Depression, even if it involves a long period of stagnation.

Also, as I stated before, the fact that there is any economic growth at all is something of a minor miracle during periods of deleveraging. Just to be clear here: The US is still deleveraging. When the US was still deleveraging in the Great Depression, our GDP was crashing hard. So to be fair, I would not even start to compare the "recovery" until this period of deleveraging is over. Otherwise you would have to include the deleveraging period of the Great Depression as well, an approach which you objected to earlier.
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Re: This is the WORST RECOVERY EVER

Postby mmasters » Fri 01 Feb 2013, 20:23:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')why complain about what the polititians say, this is just the new normal.


So you are resigned to the "new normal"?

This reminds me of Thoreau's famous thought on why so many people passively accept whatever happens.

The mass of men lead lives of quiet desperation. What is called resignation is confirmed desperation.
Henry David Thoreau

It also reminds me of Boxer, the stolid workhorse in Orwell's Animal Farm, who passively goes along with Napoleon, the all-too-clever pig who runs Animal Farm. When Napoleon screws things up at Animal Farm, Boxer just accepts it and says

Why complain about politicians this is just the new normal I'll work harder Napoleon is always right.

Image

Yep I've accepted it, I mean what are you going to do about BAU in politics? vote? lol
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