Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

The Debt Limit

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The Debt Limit

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 18 Jan 2013, 01:36:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')
Right now Obama is the president and so he gets the lion's share of the blame for the huge deficits that are occurring on his watch due to his policies and his feckless spending. An unfortunate part of Obama's legacy will be the 7 TRILLION dollars in debt his administration has created so far---it will be a drag on US economic growth, and on job creation and income levels for Americans for decades to come :idea:


From what I know, the main drivers of the deficit stem from three decades of voodoo economics, with the current one involving not just bailouts but war costs and tax cuts from the Bush administration. There's also household debt in light of an economy that's heavily dependent on consumer spending, corporate debt in light of large amounts of credit involved in financial speculation, etc.

Since we are looking at what is essentially four decades of trade deficits coupled with three decades of increased spending across the board (households, corporations, government), then we see that economic "growth" for many years essentially involved spending and borrowing.

What caused the recent crash was a fraction of borrowing involving subprime lending and unregulated derivatives blowing up, leading to fallout worldwide (prob. around $30 trillion vaporized). There will definitely be more, esp. given a global market with $600 trillion to $1.2 quadrillion in unregulated derivatives.
User avatar
ralfy
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5651
Joined: Sat 28 Mar 2009, 11:36:38
Location: The Wasteland

Re: The Debt Limit

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 18 Jan 2013, 12:22:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')From what I know, the main drivers of the deficit stem from three decades of voodoo economics, with the current one involving not just bailouts but war costs and tax cuts from the Bush administration. There's also household debt in light of an economy that's heavily dependent on consumer spending, corporate debt in light of large amounts of credit involved in financial speculation, etc.


You are confusing the DEBT with the DEFICIT. The DEBT is the cumulative result of years of deficit spending. The DEFICIT is the annual excess of government spending over income.....The DEFICIT isn't caused by events that happened decades ago. Each year's DEFICIT is the result of year-to-year changes in spending and taxation called for in the annual budget, authorized by the current Congress and then spent by the president and his administration.

This year Obama's proposed annual budget calls for the deficit from federal spending to be over a trillion dollars, as it has been every year of the Obama administration----Obama's huge annual deficits are why the debt limit, currently set at 16.4 TRILLION dollars, has to be raised again. :idea:
Never underestimate the ability of Joe Biden to f#@% things up---Barack Obama
-----------------------------------------------------------
Keep running between the raindrops.
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 26765
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: The Debt Limit

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 18 Jan 2013, 14:50:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')
You are confusing the DEBT with the DEFICIT. The DEBT is the cumulative result of years of deficit spending. The DEFICIT is the annual excess of government spending over income.....The DEFICIT isn't caused by events that happened decades ago. Each year's DEFICIT is the result of year-to-year changes in spending and taxation called for in the annual budget, authorized by the current Congress and then spent by the president and his administration.

This year Obama's proposed annual budget calls for the deficit from federal spending to be over a trillion dollars, as it has been every year of the Obama administration----Obama's huge annual deficits are why the debt limit, currently set at 16.4 TRILLION dollars, has to be raised again. :idea:


I didn't argue that it is directly caused by but stems from "three decades of voodoo economics." That is, we had a budget deficit slightly lower than zero each year from JFK to Nixon, and then a downward trend from Nixon onward, except for the second half of Carter's term, the latter end of Reagan's, and a major increase during Clinton's admin, followed by a major drop.

If we consider what has been driving the deficit during the past few years, we might see something like this:

http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of ... its-2010-6

Thus, tax cuts and war costs, among others, from the Bush admin onward.

Very likely tax cuts together with deregulation and military operations are employed to keep the petro-dollar propped up and a consumer spending economy afloat, not to mention bailouts.

And that's part of overall increase in spending which in turn drives up debt:

http://blogs.reuters.com/rolfe-winkler/ ... s-of-debt/
User avatar
ralfy
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5651
Joined: Sat 28 Mar 2009, 11:36:38
Location: The Wasteland

Re: The Debt Limit

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 18 Jan 2013, 19:52:15

The Rs have come up with a new plan to try to get Obama to cut the deficit. They are going to pass a three month extension to the debt limit. This will kick the can down the road to the point that the sequestration from the fiscal cliff and the need for a new 2014 federal budget bill both come into play.

The idea is that the Rs will write the 2014 budget with some budget cuts, and make the next debt limit extension part of the 2014 budget bill. This supposedly will give the Rs enough leverage that they can finally force Obama to agree to some deficit reduction in order to get the debt limit increase he wants. :mrgreen:
Never underestimate the ability of Joe Biden to f#@% things up---Barack Obama
-----------------------------------------------------------
Keep running between the raindrops.
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 26765
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: The Debt Limit

Unread postby Fishman » Fri 18 Jan 2013, 23:10:05

Straight from the GAO, exactly as I noted "GAO's simulations continue to illustrate that the federal government is on an unsustainable long-term fiscal path". Sure we can blame the prior presidents for the 10 trillion prior to Obama, but the prize goes to the 6+, working on 7 before he's actually reinaguated disaster in office now. What part of "unsustainable long term path" do you not understand?
Obama, the FUBAR presidency gets scraped off the boot
User avatar
Fishman
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2137
Joined: Thu 11 Aug 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Carolina de Norte

Re: The Debt Limit

Unread postby sparky » Sat 19 Jan 2013, 01:10:37

.
Get real , a country has the politicians it deserve
the U.S. was founded on liberty not to pay taxes for their defense
much to the anger of Britain who was footing the bill
the rest is history

the civil was was paid for by the secretary of the treasury, salmon Chase ,
by issuing gold backed bonds nicknamed greenbacks , later made into a fiat currency
Vietnam wasn't paid for , neither was Johnson great society or the moon landing
Reagan proved that massive military spending returned on hard dollar for three in credit
the USSR gave up the cold war as deeply destructive ,they did not understand the power of debt

The USA claimed they had won , now Russia has a few hundred billions in saving while the U.S. is surviving on the kindness of strangers .

P.S. Germany is repatriating a good part of its considerable gold reserve back home
User avatar
sparky
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3587
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Sydney , OZ

Re: The Debt Limit

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 19 Jan 2013, 01:40:44

Good points, Sparky.

What is happening between political parties amounts to nothing more than a dog and pony show.
User avatar
ralfy
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5651
Joined: Sat 28 Mar 2009, 11:36:38
Location: The Wasteland

Re: The Debt Limit

Unread postby jdmartin » Wed 23 Jan 2013, 12:53:11

If we want to get real, let's face facts: Nearly all politicians at the federal, and most at the state level, are liars. Some would have you believe that if we just cut taxes, or quit deficit spending, the American economy will come back with a roar.

Please. That ship sailed a long time ago.

Obama deficit spends because he has no choice. Neither did Bush. Neither did Clinton, who really didn't have a surplus when you take into account long-term liabilities. When we let our middle-class economy leave for Mexico, China, Vietnam, Laos, India, and a dozen other places, we signed on to either permanent austerity or deficit spending.

Military spending is nothing more than a welfare system for the right wing. We can't cut military spending because most of it - the billions wasted on the Haliburtons not withstanding - pays for personnel. If those personnel weren't paid, they would leave the military and look for non-existent jobs, and become a further drag on domestic spending.

We might as well face facts that government spending - redistribution of dollars - is the only thing keeping the economy going right now. No one - not Obama, not John Boehner, not even Rand Paul - is going to cut spending because it would wreck the economy. And no one is going to prime the pump by recirculating the dollars being held by the global corporatocracy back into the lower classes. Example: when the bank bailout was done. If the government was going to spend the money anyway, to bail out the banks, why not circulate it through as many hands as possible before the banks got it? Provide everyone with a mortgage voucher, good only towards payment of the mortgage. Then the banks end up with the money anyway, and it cancels out a trillion dollars worth of outstanding debt. The bailout was a bad idea, but this would at least make some smittance of sense. Instead, the banks get the money, the top of the corporatocracy creams it off, and everyone else still walks around with trillions of dollars of debt.

There's no way out of this predicament. There's no way the rest of the world can live as good as Americans and Europeans; there just aren't enough resources. So either we remain living good, and the rest of the world goes back to the rice paddy, or we devolve our standard of living to match theirs. I think it's obvious which road we've chosen (and yes, we chose it every time we bought a Wallyworld T-shirt for a buck less than the American shirt).

The only way out of the debt situation is a controlled default. Since we're going to have to default anyway - there's really no question about it - we might as well spend into oblivion. Let's face it: if you were about to declare bankruptcy, and have all your debts washed away, the prudent thing for *you* personally would be to buy as much as you could before walking away. We will do the same in the US because there's no other option. Just try to eliminate food stamps; housing subsidies; unemployment funds - you know, the popular things to get rid of because these people are supposed moochers. The economy will be in total freefall.

If not for my own selfish sense of survival, I'd almost say let them burn the mother down by cutting all spending.
After fueling up their cars, Twyman says they bowed their heads and asked God for cheaper gas.There was no immediate answer, but he says other motorists joined in and the service station owner didn't run them off.
User avatar
jdmartin
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1272
Joined: Thu 19 May 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Merry Ol' USA

Re: The Debt Limit

Unread postby Kez » Wed 23 Jan 2013, 16:12:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kez', 'I') don't really see the Debt Limit issue as Obama's fault.... The idea of going in debt and letting your successors figure out how to pay it off has been going on for a long time.


Obama lied...

If you aren't willing to criticize a politician like Obama when he has clearly lied about the budget deficit issue, then how do you ever expect to get honest politicians or a competent goverment? :roll:


Yeah I know all of that. I'm no fan of any politician that I can think of, but as I said, the system is broken. I *know* that whatever a politician says is mostly crap. I saw Obama on TV make most of these insane promises in 2008. He said he was closing Guantanamo and "first day" doing something about climate change. Still nothing serious has been done. Voters obviously don't care - again, the system is broken.

Who cares if I critisize him? Nothing changes. He laughs in the face of anything and everything. To get mad about it doesn't help. To rant to your friends who are ignorant just makes you look dumb, even though you are correct. Posting facts on the internet, if done with civility, is fine, but again, who reads that stuff? The ignorant people don't care and it won't help them vote for someone else. The only true way to make a difference at the federal level that I can think of is to become successful in your community and get elected to the house of representatives - as an independent. Partisan politics and all the stupid games they play with each other is part of the reason everything is so broken.
Kez
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 218
Joined: Fri 06 May 2005, 03:00:00
Location: North Texas
Top

Re: The Debt Limit

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 23 Jan 2013, 18:51:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kez', ' ')Partisan politics and all the stupid games they play with each other is part of the reason everything is so broken.


Partisan politics is how democracy works----its been that way ever since the US was established. And its always been a mess. As Mark Twain said over a century ago ...when you are in politics you are in a wasp's nest with a short shirt-tail

What would you prefer instead of democracy and its stupid reliance on partisan politics?
Would you prefer a dictatorship?

Image
Partisan politics are held to a minimum in dictatorships----or else.
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 26765
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Top

Re: The Debt Limit

Unread postby jdmartin » Tue 05 Feb 2013, 17:04:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')Partisan politics is how democracy works----its been that way ever since the US was established. And its always been a mess. As Mark Twain said over a century ago ...when you are in politics you are in a wasp's nest with a short shirt-tail

What would you prefer instead of democracy and its stupid reliance on partisan politics?
Would you prefer a dictatorship?

Partisan politics are held to a minimum in dictatorships----or else.[/size]


Democracy is really a messy way to run anything. As Plato recognized, the philosopher-king system - a ruling class of benevolence - is really a far superior setup. The rub is that humans cannot be trusted to run anything for very long before skewing the system towards their own benefit. As such, democracy is probably the best of what we have left to try, at least for the long term good. That said, there are serious impediments to any third viewpoint in our system until the situation reaches condition critical. 50+1 creates a constant source of friction, as a huge minority of people are left without a voice. This is what the Constitutional framers wanted, especially Madison: a system where everything was log jammed all the time and little could be accomplished. Very few ideas can run the gauntlet of government, so it more or less preserves the status quo. This is why changes of any kind take generations in the US, compared to all other countries using a parliamentary system.

As our resources become stretched, the manifestation of those weaknesses is becoming more obvious, to the detriment of the country's well-being. Parliamentary systems either force compromise or require constant citizen participation and vigilance, neither of which is a bad thing. In the US, you can harden your position and still sit in power for 30 years. We've allowed an oligarchy to seize control, which is almost worse than your dictator cartoon, because at least in the dictatorial system you don't maintain an illusion of control.
After fueling up their cars, Twyman says they bowed their heads and asked God for cheaper gas.There was no immediate answer, but he says other motorists joined in and the service station owner didn't run them off.
User avatar
jdmartin
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1272
Joined: Thu 19 May 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Merry Ol' USA
Top

Re: The Debt Limit

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 05 Feb 2013, 20:35:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdmartin', 'c')hanges of any kind take generations in the US, compared to all other countries using a parliamentary system.


Really?

I don't see any rapid changes happening in the EU to adapt to the gobal downturn or to peak oil to anything, anymore than in the USA. In fact, the parliamentary governments in the EU seem even more befuddled by the current high energy prices and downturn in the global economy then the goverment here in the USA.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdmartin', 'W')e've allowed an oligarchy to seize control, which is almost worse than your dictator cartoon, because at least in the dictatorial system you don't maintain an illusion of control.


The US has always been controlled by an oligarchy. George Washington was the wealthiest man in the British Colonies, and Jefferson, Adams and almost all the founding fathers were wealthy planters or traders or printers or successful businessmen. Its no different now---folks like John Kerry and Romney are extremely wealthy, while the rest DC is filled with the merely wealthy.

What makes it still function is some mobility for the talented poor-----Franklin and Patrick Henry started out poor but talented in the 18th century, as did Obama, Ronald Reagan, Steve Jobs, George Romney etc. in recent times. 8)
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 26765
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Top

Re: The Debt Limit

Unread postby argyle » Wed 06 Feb 2013, 04:59:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdmartin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')Partisan politics is how democracy works----its been that way ever since the US was established. And its always been a mess. As Mark Twain said over a century ago ...when you are in politics you are in a wasp's nest with a short shirt-tail

What would you prefer instead of democracy and its stupid reliance on partisan politics?
Would you prefer a dictatorship?

Partisan politics are held to a minimum in dictatorships----or else.[/size]


Democracy is really a messy way to run anything. As Plato recognized, the philosopher-king system - a ruling class of benevolence - is really a far superior setup. The rub is that humans cannot be trusted to run anything for very long before skewing the system towards their own benefit. As such, democracy is probably the best of what we have left to try, at least for the long term good. That said, there are serious impediments to any third viewpoint in our system until the situation reaches condition critical. 50+1 creates a constant source of friction, as a huge minority of people are left without a voice. This is what the Constitutional framers wanted, especially Madison: a system where everything was log jammed all the time and little could be accomplished. Very few ideas can run the gauntlet of government, so it more or less preserves the status quo. This is why changes of any kind take generations in the US, compared to all other countries using a parliamentary system.

As our resources become stretched, the manifestation of those weaknesses is becoming more obvious, to the detriment of the country's well-being. Parliamentary systems either force compromise or require constant citizen participation and vigilance, neither of which is a bad thing. In the US, you can harden your position and still sit in power for 30 years. We've allowed an oligarchy to seize control, which is almost worse than your dictator cartoon, because at least in the dictatorial system you don't maintain an illusion of control.


Parliament = Democracy, but Instead of having career politicians that stay in power for too long, that launch their kids, or family into politics,..
The parliament/government should be composed to a certain percentage not only of elected people (as you need money, connections, etc to get elected) but of a number "everyday" ppl as well as intellectuals (doctors, professors, economics, engineers) for one or two terms, then things change again..

The problem with politicians is that when they are in office too long, they get into the sway of lobbyists and get disconnected to the general public. In general any lobbying should be illegal, or any private funding of political parties. Public money to finance parties, based on the number of voters they get. Keep private money out of politics and you might be able to get rid of a lot of conflict of interest (general public vs companies). Also, politicians should not be able to get any income from being on boards of any company, etc.
If politicians break any of the rules, they should get 2x-3x the prison time as the general public as they are elected and play and exemplary role.
"People should not be afraid of their governments. Governments should be afraid of their people."
argyle
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 248
Joined: Tue 31 Mar 2009, 04:39:02
Top

Re: The Debt Limit

Unread postby Quinny » Wed 06 Feb 2013, 06:35:51

I was talking to a politician just yesterday and it's interesting our discussion led to a position that becoming a politician should mean accepting higher standards and certain restrictions being imposed.

The tories have just lost a vote to cut significantly the number of MP's to 'equalise' the value of a vote and cut costs. The problem is that some constituencies would be ridiculously large and representation would be virtually non-existence for some.

My suggestion was to increase the number of MP's but cut their wages significantly also banning any secondary income. He said about cost of living in London, but I would say that there should be politicians accommodation provided in 'houses of residence' and then the politicians would need much less money to live on.

I realise that this would be a severe restriction in freedom/human rights etc for politicians, but it's only like going to work in another country and accepting restricitions for more money, but in this case you'd be accepting the restrictions to improve society as a whole. It would however ensure that politicians were in the job for the right reason.
Live, Love, Learn, Leave Legacy.....oh and have a Laugh while you're doing it!
User avatar
Quinny
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3337
Joined: Thu 03 Jul 2008, 03:00:00

Previous

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests

cron