by lowem » Tue 15 Jan 2013, 11:04:20
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'I') think the answer is no to your question because Asia does not have enough internal market structure to support itself yet. Globalization has discouraged it, especially the low wages for laborer's. It is hard to be a consumer when you can feed yourself but you have to live in company owned housing because you can not afford anything better. China has built a dozen beautiful modern cities that sit virtually empty because the workers can't afford to live in them and those who can afford to live better already have homes.
Who can the Chinese businesses sell too if the USA and EU are no longer buying? Nobody.
They would sell to the mythical Chinese consumer, of course!
But the rise of the Chinese consumer depends on the ability of the Chinese economy to deliver goods to the USA and EU and the rest of the world and the ability of said regions to continue to be able to receive said goods given the performance of their own economy. When you're producing for the whole world, you really can't use it all by yourself. Therein lies the rub. In terms of consuming power, we would have to have (all of) Asia >= US + EU and that might not happen any time fast. And yes, Peak Oil would get in the way any time between now and then. We are living in interesting times, surely.