[AgentR11]

Being a pessimist, I can't say that I'm hopeful, but I'm not opposed to change that is meaningful. Greenwashes tick me off to no end though.

I'm just not seeing how people will go from "I swear GW is a hoax" (silent-brain-voice... this drought is amped up by cc) to "GW is real, and we need to rearrange our taxation system to disfavor carbon emissions". I don't think the people that are claiming hoax can make the shift, and I don't think people currently talking about needing to make changes for AGW/CC will allow them to make the shift in a politically survivable manner. aka gridlock. Unfortunately, this time, gridlock is going to get a lot of people dead.

[Graeme]

When the choice is as stark as that - life or death - change will occur for the better. I don't think the decision-makers will tolerate heat waves, hurricanes, floods and droughts indefinitely because they will be affected too. Perhaps they will lose their life in such a unnatural disaster.

[dohboi]

Well, we've had some pretty good heat wave, droughts, hurricanes, floods...but we're pumping more carbon into the atmosphere than ever, with no hint of real movement at the top.

It's very much like we're all just sleep-walking right over a cliff--just mostly continuing to do what we have always done even though many know on some level that it's a death walk.

[Graeme]

That was then, this is now. I think we are fast approaching a political tipping point as far as major decisions on climate change are concerned. Take a look at these statistics:

Natural catastrophes caused $160 bn in damage: Munich Re

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')atural catastrophes including US hurricane Sandy caused $160 billion (122 billion euros') worth of damage in 2012, the world's leading reinsurer, Munich Re, estimated on Thursday.

"Last year, natural catastrophes caused $160 billion in overall losses and $65 billion in insured losses worldwide," Munich Re said in a statement.

About 67 percent of overall losses and 90 percent of insured losses were attributable to the United States, with the year's highest insured loss caused by Hurricane Sandy, with an estimated amount of around $25 billion, the reinsurer said.

In addition, the US was also hit by severe droughts, as well as tornadoes, it added.

Overall, global losses were significantly lower in 2012 than in the previous year, when record figures were posted due to the earthquakes in Japan and New Zealand and severe floods in Thailand, Munich Re continued.

In 2011, overall losses came to $400 billion and insured losses to $119 billion.

In terms of fatalities, about 9,500 people lost their lives in natural catastrophes last year compared with 27,200 in 2011 and a 10-year average of 106,000.

"The relatively small number of fatalities was due to the fact that, in 2012, few severe natural catastrophes occurred in emerging and developing countries, where natural catastrophes tend to have far more devastating consequences in terms of human lives," Munich Re explained.

Hurricane Sandy made landfall on the east coast of the US on October 29.

While at that point, its maximum wind speeds were no more than 150 kilometres (94 miles) per hour, "it was an exceptionally wide storm, measuring 1,800 kilometres in diameter -- one-and-a-half times as big as Texas -- so that the losses extended over a vast area," Munich Re said.

The second major loss event of 2012 was the summer-long drought in the US that plagued the Corn Belt in the midwest, where most of the US's main agricultural crops, corn and soybean, are grown, Munich Re said.

Nearly half of US arable acreage was hit and overall agricultural crop losses in the US in 2012 totalled around $20 billion, "making it the biggest loss in US agricultural insurance history."

In average years, insured losses are around $9.0 billion.

The head of Munich Re's Geo Risks Research, Peter Hoeppe, said Hurricane Sandy and the drought "clearly demonstrate the type of events we can expect to contend with more often in the future."

[clif]

I think the power is being removed from the decision makers hands a little more every day.

They didn't decide to allow Hurricane sandy, or Irene, they occurred because the conditions in the planets climate allowed them. Just as the climate allowed the droughts of 2011 and 2012 in the US.

The decision makers are going to become more and more irrelevant to what happens and with both the ever increasing severity and regularity of the climate problems combined with the slowly creeping stranglehold of lower and lower energy resources availability to respond. Within a decade or two the decision makers will be just as helpless as the rest of us, but very visible targets for retaliation when the truth finally rips the ideological scales from the deniers eyes, and the vast number of people they bamboozled for short term monetary and political profit.

It ain't gonna be pretty, but nothing about the future we are being doomed to follow is.

[Graeme]

I can't see politicians sitting on their hands while chaos ensues around them.

Killer (Heat) Waves: Heat-Related U.S. Deaths could Increase by 150,000 By Century's End Due to Climate Change

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')RDC released a report today projecting that more than 150,000 additional Americans could die by the end of this century due to excessive heat caused by climate change. This startling conclusion is based on peer-reviewed scientific papers published recently by Dr. Larry Kalkstein and colleagues.

The “Killer Summer Heat” report gives the results for all 40 cities analyzed in the original papers. The three with the highest number of projected heat-related deaths through the end of the century are: Louisville, KY (19,000 deaths); Detroit (18,000); and Cleveland (17,000). Other cities’ death tolls include:

Baltimore: 2,900 deaths
Boston: 5,700 deaths
Chicago: 6,400 deaths
Columbus: 6,000 deaths
Denver: 3,500 deaths
Los Angeles: 1,200 deaths
Minneapolis: 7,500 deaths
Philadelphia: 700 deaths
Pittsburgh: 1,200 deaths
Providence, R.I.: 2,000 deaths
St. Louis: 5,600 deaths
Washington, D.C.: 3000 deaths.
The projected deaths are based on the widely-used assumption that carbon pollution will steadily increase in the absence of effective new policies, more than doubling the levels seen today by the end of the century.

These findings bring home the fact that global climate change has a number of real life-and-death consequences in our local communities. One of which is that as carbon pollution continues to grow, climate change is only going to increase the number of dangerously hot days each summer, leading to a dramatic increase in the number of lives lost.

Already an average of 1,300 heat-related deaths occur per year due to direct and indirect effects of heat exacerbating life-threatening illnesses, such as heat exhaustion, heat stroke, cardiovascular disease, and kidney disease, according to Dr. Kalkstein's analysis. That estimate comes from analyzing the 40 largest U.S. cities from 1975 through 2004, so it doesn’t account for the impact of the record-setting heat seen more recently. Last summer at least 42 states saw record daytime highs and 49 states saw record high nighttime temperatures, according to NOAA. And last week NOAA reported that the twelve months that ended on April 30th were the warmest twelve months in the United States since reliable record-keeping began in 1895.

[clif]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') can't see politicians sitting on their hands while chaos ensues around them.

[Graeme]

Well, if all else fails like protests in streets, then you could "storm the Bastille" or protest from senate/congress galleries.

In the meantime, progress with legislation is being made.

"climate change is a threat to our freedom"

[Graeme]

James Hansen outlines climate science and strategies to persuade politicians.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YrlRk-bHxk

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'I') can't see politicians sitting on their hands while chaos ensues around them.

Killer (Heat) Waves: Heat-Related U.S. Deaths could Increase by 150,000 By Century's End Due to Climate Change

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')RDC released a report today projecting that more than 150,000 additional Americans could die by the end of this century due to excessive heat caused by climate change. This startling conclusion is based on peer-reviewed scientific papers published recently by Dr. Larry Kalkstein and colleagues.

The “Killer Summer Heat” report gives the results for all 40 cities analyzed in the original papers. The three with the highest number of projected heat-related deaths through the end of the century are: Louisville, KY (19,000 deaths); Detroit (18,000); and Cleveland (17,000). Other cities’ death tolls include:

Baltimore: 2,900 deaths
Boston: 5,700 deaths
Chicago: 6,400 deaths
Columbus: 6,000 deaths
Denver: 3,500 deaths
Los Angeles: 1,200 deaths
Minneapolis: 7,500 deaths
Philadelphia: 700 deaths
Pittsburgh: 1,200 deaths
Providence, R.I.: 2,000 deaths
St. Louis: 5,600 deaths
Washington, D.C.: 3000 deaths.
The projected deaths are based on the widely-used assumption that carbon pollution will steadily increase in the absence of effective new policies, more than doubling the levels seen today by the end of the century.

These findings bring home the fact that global climate change has a number of real life-and-death consequences in our local communities. One of which is that as carbon pollution continues to grow, climate change is only going to increase the number of dangerously hot days each summer, leading to a dramatic increase in the number of lives lost.

Already an average of 1,300 heat-related deaths occur per year due to direct and indirect effects of heat exacerbating life-threatening illnesses, such as heat exhaustion, heat stroke, cardiovascular disease, and kidney disease, according to Dr. Kalkstein's analysis. That estimate comes from analyzing the 40 largest U.S. cities from 1975 through 2004, so it doesn’t account for the impact of the record-setting heat seen more recently. Last summer at least 42 states saw record daytime highs and 49 states saw record high nighttime temperatures, according to NOAA. And last week NOAA reported that the twelve months that ended on April 30th were the warmest twelve months in the United States since reliable record-keeping began in 1895.

[Rod_Cloutier]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's very much like we're all just sleep-walking right over a cliff--just mostly continuing to do what we have always done even though many know on some level that it's a death walk.

[AgentR11]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clif', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') can't see politicians sitting on their hands while chaos ensues around them.

[AgentR11]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Repent', 'T')he death walk is my only option now.

[Graeme]

Tanada, At first glance, your criticism would appear to have some merit, but I am going to conclude that their results are valid. The NRDC is not going to publish nonsense. They have quoted peer-reviewed articles and they have published their methodology. Although I don't fully understand the details, the broad outline is clear. It is obvious that heat stress can cause death and that climate change is going to induce more extreme weather events. You could argue that the absolute numbers are meaningless - fine - but I think that they have the right order of magnitude. I presume they have filtered out winter deaths (they use 2 styles of heat wave), and I can't see migration being too significant. Where are people going to go? I cannot see large portions of the population of major US cities migrating to Canada. You cannot stay inside an AC room forever.

Repent, As Agent pointed out, climate change is intergenerational. It's not life or death now.

Agent, I watched all of the Hansen video. I'd like to point out that a carbon tax has already worked in Ireland without adversely affecting their economy.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')nvironmentally and economically, the new taxes have delivered results. Long one of Europe’s highest per-capita producers of greenhouse gases, with levels nearing those of the United States, Ireland has seen its emissions drop more than 15 percent since 2008.

Although much of that decline can be attributed to a recession, changes in behavior also played a major role, experts say, noting that the country’s emissions dropped 6.7 percent in 2011 even as the economy grew slightly.

[AgentR11]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', ']')carbon tax[/url] has already worked in Ireland without adversely affecting their economy.

[Graeme]

Does the response to question 11 help then?

[rangerone314]

I tell you what would have an effect... Dr. Stephens from "12 Monkeys". That would solve the hairless primate problem, I suppose.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'I') tell you what would have an effect... Dr. Stephens from "12 Monkeys". That would solve the hairless primate problem, I suppose.

[AgentR11]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'D')oes the response to question 11 help then?

[Graeme]

Agent, The issue of compensation for low-income in the form of a rebate will surely be addressed by legislators. I'm sure details will be well publicized before bill is signed into law. Other options (e.g. SSI, SNAP, EITC and LIHEAP) are discussed in this CBO working paper.


The NRDC and 69 signatory groups wrote a letter to the President yesterday.