[dinopello]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'P')eak oil is real. Oil reservoirs deplete and so production declines and eventually ends. This will happen to each well, every group of wells, field, region, nation, and finally the planet. There may be drops left, but not economic to drill. Our industrial infrastructure and economic system depends on inexpensive oil.

[Quinny]

Even given a following wind, the 'catalog' doesn't significantly alleviate the problems caused by the predicament we are in.

[SamInNebraska]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'P')eak oil is real. Oil reservoirs deplete and so production declines and eventually ends. This will happen to each well, every group of wells, field, region, nation, and finally the planet. There may be drops left, but not economic to drill. Our industrial infrastructure and economic system depends on inexpensive oil. You must understand this unless of course you are a proponent of abiotic oil?

[SamInNebraska]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SamInNebraska', '
')
Interesting. How do we know this? it would seem easy enough to check, do we have any domain tracking software available to show that no .gov, or .citibank, or .doe domains come here?

[SamInNebraska]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'Y')ou are partially correct. Among those named only Hubbert actually discovered oil. He always discovered peak oil.

[SamInNebraska]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Quinny', 'E')ven given a following wind, the 'catalog' doesn't significantly alleviate the problems caused by the predicament we are in.

[rockdoc123]

I'm going to reiterate something I said a few years back on pt 1 of this thread. The contribution of this thread should not be assessed on how good the numbers are. Oilfinder is simply reporting comments from various sources found and the value is in collating that information. Back before I retired I had access to IHS, WoodMac and a couple of other sources for this type of information but no longer due. I find it useful that when I see something posted as a new discovery I can do a bit of digging on the internet and find out whether or not a well was actually drilled (sometimes governments BS about "discovered" hydrocarbons but have only shot seismic and identified potential traps) and what was done (testing, logs etc) which validates or not the number reported. In some cases the numbers reported have come from audited reserve reports and in others they are simply early guesses by the operator or in others speculation by a third party. What is important is that there is activity going on and there still is hydrocarbons being discovered.

This of course has not a lot to do with Peak Oil at this point in our history simply because the time from discovery to production for big pools is actually quite long (10 years is the average for the big fields off west Africa) which means that the treadmill of depletion is running a bit too fast to catch up. What I think is important, as I've said countless times, is that by making the peak a bumpy, extended decline it gives time for governments to actually do something about transition.

I applaud the efforts put forward to get this information into one place.

[MrEnergyCzar]

Since we peaked globally over 50 years ago, of the good stuff, shouldn't there be some sort of multiplier to discount the poor resource discoveries i.e. oil in shale rock, Tar oil etc..? Is there an adjusted discovery graph to reflect this discounting?

Thanks,

MrEnergyCzar

[Quinny]

It's way beyond me (most things are), but I agree that a 'net' useful energy figure would be useful to help understand what's happening. I know someone's bound to scream that this is built into pricing, but IMO that is not a direct enough link.

Even if it could be done historically on actual production data it'd be interesting. It may even show us already on the downslope if EROEI is taken into account.

[SamInNebraska]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '
')I applaud the efforts put forward to get this information into one place.

[SamInNebraska]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrEnergyCzar', 'S')ince we peaked globally over 50 years ago, of the good stuff, shouldn't there be some sort of multiplier to discount the poor resource discoveries i.e. oil in shale rock, Tar oil etc..? Is there an adjusted discovery graph to reflect this discounting?

Thanks,

MrEnergyCzar

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ince we peaked globally over 50 years ago, of the good stuff, shouldn't there be some sort of multiplier to discount the poor resource discoveries i.e. oil in shale rock, Tar oil etc..? Is there an adjusted discovery graph to reflect this discounting?

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrEnergyCzar', 'S')ince we peaked globally over 50 years ago, of the good stuff, shouldn't there be some sort of multiplier to discount the poor resource discoveries i.e. oil in shale rock, Tar oil etc..? Is there an adjusted discovery graph to reflect this discounting?

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Quinny', 'I')t's way beyond me (most things are), but I agree that a 'net' useful energy figure would be useful to help understand what's happening. I know someone's bound to scream that this is built into pricing, but IMO that is not a direct enough link.

Even if it could be done historically on actual production data it'd be interesting. It may even show us already on the downslope if EROEI is taken into account.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SamInNebraska', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')he national average price for gas in 2012 was $3.60 per gallon, which is the most expensive annual average on record. The previous annual record was $3.51 a gallon set in 2011, while the third most expensive year for gas prices nationwide was 2008, when the average was $3.25 per gallon. Spot a trend?

[SamInNebraska]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '
')
In terms of Peak Oil all it refers to is having reached the peak in production....the idea that this represents half of the reserves is complete BS and can be shown to be wrong historically. Whether it is oil from conventional reservoirs or unconventional reservoirs doesn't make a difference as long as we are talking about production of a fungible commodity. There are finer points to argue regarding how fungible some of the liquids produced are, however.