[nth]

People say how accurate Hubble's Model is in predicting US PO, but is he really correct?
If you plug in URR for US, Hubble's Model doesn't work.

The only thing that we can see for sure is that Hubble is right about estimating the Peak and that oil is a finite resource and will Peak before half the oil is recovered. After all, we hit PO before recovering half the oil in the US.

Now, my question... why don't people come up with more accurate models for US PO that will successfully predict US decreasing oil production?

[khebab]

Do you mean Hubbert's Model?

[ubercrap]

Right, Hubbert was the geologist, Hubble was an astronomer (among many other talents). I believe that Hubbert was actually wrong about how much we could pump, but was right about the date. I believe that Deffeyes, in his book, explains Hubbert's calculations.

[WebHubbleTelescope]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', 'P')eople say how accurate Hubble's Model is in predicting US PO, but is he really correct?
If you plug in URR for US, Hubble's Model doesn't work.

The only thing that we can see for sure is that Hubble is right about estimating the Peak and that oil is a finite resource and will Peak before half the oil is recovered. After all, we hit PO before recovering half the oil in the US.

Now, my question... why don't people come up with more accurate models for US PO that will successfully predict US decreasing oil production?

[RonMN]

IMHO i think because of stripper wells & other technology...we're seeing long tails on the "plateu"...not the downslope.

Because of these technologies, we can keep pumping at good rates of return but then there is no peak...it becomes a clif. 1 hour the well is pumping & the next hour you have nothing. Rather than accepting a slower production rate we force it to speed up until it's dead. Which (again IMHO) makes me think the downslope wont be a downslope at all...it will be a cliff we fall off of.

(Example: see Wile E. Coyote chasing the Road Runner)

[ubercrap]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RonMN', 'I')MHO i think because of stripper wells & other technology...we're seeing long tails on the "plateu"...not the downslope.

Because of these technologies, we can keep pumping at good rates of return but then there is no peak...it becomes a clif. 1 hour the well is pumping & the next hour you have nothing. Rather than accepting a slower production rate we force it to speed up until it's dead. Which (again IMHO) makes me think the downslope wont be a downslope at all...it will be a cliff we fall off of.

(Example: see Wile E. Coyote chasing the Road Runner)

[WebHubbleTelescope]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RonMN', 'I')MHO i think because of stripper wells & other technology...we're seeing long tails on the "plateu"...not the downslope.

Because of these technologies, we can keep pumping at good rates of return but then there is no peak...it becomes a clif. 1 hour the well is pumping & the next hour you have nothing. Rather than accepting a slower production rate we force it to speed up until it's dead. Which (again IMHO) makes me think the downslope wont be a downslope at all...it will be a cliff we fall off of.

(Example: see Wile E. Coyote chasing the Road Runner)

[nth]

Yes, wrong spelling.

[nth]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WebHubbleTelescope', '
')
http://mobjectivist.blogspot.com/2005/0 ... model.html
http://mobjectivist.blogspot.com/2005/0 ... model.html

We will see some other strange things on the downslope as we start capping Prudhoe Bay wells. HeadingOut at The Oil Drum has that analysis pegged; see what he wrote today:
http://theoildrum.blogspot.com/2005/06/ ... -come.html

[FrankRichards]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RonMN', '
')Because of these technologies, we can keep pumping at good rates of return but then there is no peak...it becomes a clif. 1 hour the well is pumping & the next hour you have nothing. Rather than accepting a slower production rate we force it to speed up until it's dead. Which (again IMHO) makes me think the downslope wont be a downslope at all...it will be a cliff we fall off of.

[Aaron]

Many of the stripper wells here in Texas actually produce as little as 1 barrel per day.

But statistically these wells are irrelevant.

ASPO & WOCAP both cream their models and acknowledge anomalies can introduce unforeseen changes in expected behavior.

In the end none of these predictions is any better than the data available.

And like most physical sciences, these are living computations which are updated as new data becomes available.

ASPO may be wrong by a large margin, but I bet they are closer than USGS in predicting peak.