[Lore]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', ' ')What insurance company is going to cover a house in the flood zone of Staten Island or NJ?

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '.')..state officials want to legislate against any mention of the rising oceans.

[Lore]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '.')..state officials want to legislate against any mention of the rising oceans.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '.')..state officials want to legislate against any mention of the rising oceans.

[Revi]

I heard that one, that the US will become energy independent by 2035. I think it's a good way to get everyone to pay attention to something else for a while. Climate change isn't stopping either, it's accelerating. It seems like they want Al Gore to come back on stage for a bit so they can call climate change some kind of liberal hoax. This thing isn't going to get much serious attention. Bill McKibben is going around with his Do the Math Tour, meanwhile his organization is 350.org, and we are already well over 400 ppm. I admire his courage in doing it, but the political will is not there to do anything about it. I think the time for exhorting government to do something is over. Now is the time for mitigating the consequences.

If the government was awake it wouldn't be paying for flood insurance, it would be buying up those shorefront properties for what they are worth now and using it's eminent domain power to turn them into beaches and dunes again. The response to this will tell us if they are up to the job.

I have a friend who is starting an organization that's interested in dealing with what's coming. He calls it the Adaptability Project. His name is Alder Stone Fuller and I am beginning to reluctantly agree with him. The time for turning back climate change is past. Time to figure out another way now.

http://alderstone3.com/?page_id=1926

[cephalotus]

If you take all the easy and cheap oil and natural gas and you burn it, CO2 levels would rise to an amount which will led to a global average temperature 4K higher than "usual". Give or take a few percent, this doesn't matter. The relation between burning fossil fuels, CO2 level in the atmosphere and global average temperature is quite well known.

But just burning all the cheap oil and gas is very optimistic and highly unrealistic. We also burn lots of coal and we are developing technologies to get access to expensive oil and gas.

World politics is depating how to stop global warming at +2K. This is 100% bullshit now. It is already impossible to stop it at +2K. To do so we would have to let half of the cheap oil and gas (and all of the coal) sit idle in the underground forever.

So we will end up with global warming and people will argue that it doesn't matter. Come on, 2K or 4K more wouldn't harm you so much, would it?

Of course it will, at least to the average person in the world, but those people affected in other countries or in the future have no lobby now. We accept to save 1 US$ now for 10US$ of destruction later. That's our nature.

Maybe we need a "Fukushima event" in the climate sector. Something happening that will show the poeple the costs of a warming world. Maybe a Hurrican in Europe, maybe the middle of the US drying to dust with forest fires burning for several months, maybe a Malaria epidemic, sand storms throughout China, whatever...

It sure need something much more powerful than Sandy. Nobody knows if this storm is related to climate change (and truth it that likely it isn't) and most people will have forgotten it in just 1 year.

The question is not: Can we afford climate change? The question is: How do we afford climate change. There is no "if" left in that debate any more. Maybe we had a chance 10 years ago, if we would have tried really hard, we sure would have had a chance 30 years ago.

Today? Zero chance. Zero.

(except a super SHTF event that will destroy the entire industry of the world, of course, but this is doomer porn)

Btw, at +7K which is unlikely to happen during our lifetime, but is entire possible in the next century, many places simply would become inhabitable to humans.

Thermogeddon:

http://barringtonstewart.wordpress.com/ ... or-humans/

best regards

[Tanada]

There is a problem with the Thermageddon theory. Sea Surface Temperatures in the tropics during the PETM were only 5C higher than today despite a huge GHG load in the atmosphere. This is why many scientists think there is a radiative cooling or albedo effect we have not discovered at this point that will kick in as temperature rises.

Yes we might hit 7C rises, after all the SST data could be wrong by a couple of degrees. Also short duration events lasting months to a couple of years might not get recorded in the climate proxies, it takes years of accumulation for a proxy estimate to be made, usually at least decade scale deposits for an estimate to be calculated.

IOW could thermageddon take place? It is possible. Will thermageddon take place? I think it is unlikely.

[cephalotus]

If an engineer tells you that the plane that you like to take will crash with a 50% chance, would you take that flight?

I wouldn't.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')Toughening up NYC is justifiable from a federal perspective, but I think we ought to get some annoying guarantees and conditions for the funding. After all, I had to put up with a ridiculous speed limit of 55mph for a long time in my back yard. Maybe someone can think of something that would REALLY rub the lefties the wrong way.

[Lore]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')
IOW could thermageddon take place? It is possible. Will thermageddon take place? I think it is unlikely.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')
IOW could thermageddon take place? It is possible. Will thermageddon take place? I think it is unlikely.

[Lore]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')
IOW could thermageddon take place? It is possible. Will thermageddon take place? I think it is unlikely.

[patience]

As individuals, we can't afford to NOT deal with both climate change and alternative energy issues. I say that because on the national level, I don't expect the US to do the right things until, as someone said, we try everything else first.

[sparky]

.
Stone age societies is probably the best ecological niche for us
kept us fed and breeding for a million years or so , can't argue it's working
that's probably also our less destructive footprint
and life wasn't so bad , nomadic herders also has it's merit
But good luck getting rid of the farmers , they are a stubborn lot ,

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '.')
Stone age societies is probably the best ecological niche for us
kept us fed and breeding for a million years or so , can't argue it's working
that's probably also our less destructive footprint
and life wasn't so bad , nomadic herders also has it's merit
But good luck getting rid of the farmers , they are a stubborn lot ,

[Lore]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '.')
Stone age societies is probably the best ecological niche for us
kept us fed and breeding for a million years or so , can't argue it's working
that's probably also our less destructive footprint
and life wasn't so bad , nomadic herders also has it's merit
But good luck getting rid of the farmers , they are a stubborn lot ,

[sparky]

.
the mortality rate for hunter gatherers and farmer is quite different
endemic mortality is much higger for settled communities so is birthrate
a much larger population is prone to epidemics , unhygienic water supply ,
and generaly big problem dealing with their own wastes
more people survive on a poor diet , many squeletons bear the sign of malnutrition
infant mortality is very high ,
every generation a bad harvest failure decimate the poors
while the propertied famillies survive ,

for hunter gatherer , low birthrate , a better diet and a cleaner living environment make for healthier population , the cull is every late winter when the food is scarce
starvation is a seasonnal thing but the individuals are much healthier
there is little social differentiation , any hunters is master of his fate
of course the inhibition of epidemics by low population density means that they will always tend to be very susceptible to urban diseases

[Lore]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '.')
the mortality rate for hunter gatherers and farmer is quite different
endemic mortality is much higger for settled communities so is birthrate
a much larger population is prone to epidemics , unhygienic water supply ,
and generaly big problem dealing with their own wastes
more people survive on a poor diet , many squeletons bear the sign of malnutrition
infant mortality is very high ,
every generation a bad harvest failure decimate the poors
while the propertied famillies survive ,

for hunter gatherer , low birthrate , a better diet and a cleaner living environment make for healthier population , the cull is every late winter when the food is scarce
starvation is a seasonnal thing but the individuals are much healthier
there is little social differentiation , any hunters is master of his fate
of course the inhibition of epidemics by low population density means that they will always tend to be very susceptible to urban diseases

[sparky]

.
In the American North East , the Indians were at the cusp between hunting and farming ,
some appalachians tribes were hunter farmers , settling and practicing both

that was the pattern of early middle East farmers , they hunted antelopes but didn't move and did some harvesting of seeds

malnutrition in the village folks is evident in their bones ,
indicative of poor diet , mostly grain , very worn teeth ,very little meat
with anemia symptoms lot of intra nasal pitting ,

Hunters have magnificent bones , superb teeth and seems to heal quite well
of course the fitness requirement are harsher , starvation is a common visitor
at least the village have a round the year stock ....usually

[Revi]

We have been living off of fossil fuels for a while now. Have you read "Eating Fossil Fuels"? We use about 10 calories of fossil fuel to produce one of food, and the ratio is getting worse. We are going to have to adjust to a lower ratio soon. In addition the changes in climate will force a shift north into poorer soils, so I could see a problem feeding people very soon. We can't afford climate change, but we can't afford to go back to regular agriculture either. Whatever we do, we're screwed.

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/w ... g_oil.html

Eating Fossil Fuels by Dale Allen Pheiffer