[SelfGov]

Hello, Everybody!

Back in 2008 I was contracted to build a "Central Bank" type application for points-based incentive systems. Before this I had avoided economics completely because everything I had read up to that point sounded like pure fantasy or uninterestingly complex. My disinterest in economics was trumped by my interest in paying my rent so I started reading books/articles on economics and central banking.

The very first thing I read was Economics in One Lesson by Henry Hazlitt.

The first thing I concluded is that modern economics is a specialized branch of anthropology that studies greed under the assumptions that biology, ecology and physics are make-believe. Modern economics is specifically averse to anything having to do with the Second Law of Thermodynamics.

The second thing I concluded is that there was much more behind the last 250 years of exponential growth than the "freedom and human ingenuity" our elders would have us praise.

When I saw the graph linked below I knew I had found my source of economic growth...

http://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.c ... el-use.png

It doesn't take a college dropout to identify ecological overshoot when one sees it.

I don't believe humanity will go extinct. I don't think Peak Oil will mean the end of civilization.

I do believe there will be mass starvation and much chaos as humanity passes through what can be called a "Population Bottleneck."

I like to let facts speak for themselves...

Every day the Bakken produces a little over half a million barrel. This is enough to fuel the US for 40 minutes.

In its 30 year lifetime a Bakken well will produce enough oil to keep the world economy running for 9 minutes.

Since 1990 humanity has consumed as much oil as it did in the 1,000 years previous.

[Plantagenet]

When we ran out of mammoth dung to burn, humans shifted to wood
When there wasn't enough wood, we shifted to peat
When peat wasn't enough, we shifted to coal
When the coal wouldn't do it, we shifted to oil

I wonder what people will think of next?

[SelfGov]

It would seem that you believe natural gas is the next big thing.

That would lead to me believing you haven't done much math on the subject.

Natural Gas is a good investment but won't prevent a population bottleneck.

[vision-master]

LENR

[mmasters]

I don't think we have to worry about it too much in our lifetime, there's a lot we can scale back on and if you include natural gas we have a few decades before things start to get really bad. Our kids will get the bottleneck.

[Lore]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', 'I') don't think we have to worry about it too much in our lifetime, there's a lot we can scale back on and if you include natural gas we have a few decades before things start to get really bad. Our kids will get the bottleneck.

[vision-master]

Gas is $3.95 a gal here now, that $5 gal relality may be comming sooner than ya think.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SelfGov', '
')Natural Gas is a good investment

[Lore]

The world's bottleneck is being able to afford the exploitation of expensive alternatives to the cheap energy they've leaned to expect, no matter what the flavor.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', 'T')he world's bottleneck is being able to afford the exploitation of expensive alternatives to the cheap energy they've leaned to expect, no matter what the flavor.

[Lore]

Nat gas is only cheap now because we're not using enough of it. Switching to this as the next best fossil fuel alternative will change that. It's just basic economics. The transportation, the amount of energy produced per unit, and the ability to advance it at a productive rate are all detriments to its final use. In the end it's finite and then what?

[Scottie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', 'N')at gas is only cheap now because we're not using enough of it.

[ColossalContrarian]

I hate to hear people beat up on NG so much because I think it has transition potential. Everyone who thinks NG is still doomed should look at how well it's working for FedEx and UPS...

It won't last forever but has certainly been beneficial to those who jumped on the gravy train early!

Does anyone think UPS or FedEx would still be in business if they didn't switch?

[Lore]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Scottie', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', 'N')at gas is only cheap now because we're not using enough of it.

[Lore]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ColossalContrarian', '
')Does anyone think UPS or FedEx would still be in business if they didn't switch?

[Scottie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Scottie', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', 'N')at gas is only cheap now because we're not using enough of it.