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Romney: Peak Oil is Nigh

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Romney: Peak Oil is Nigh

Postby seenmostofit » Fri 24 Aug 2012, 20:57:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seenmostofit', '
')
So when the MMS does a scientific inventory, using modern geophysical methods, to count this stuff up, it doesn't count?

http://www.boem.gov/Oil-and-Gas-Energy- ... Index.aspx


Sheesh. You didn't even bother to read your own link so you got the facts wrong.


Oh, I'm not so sure about that.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')
(1) the MMS doesn't do surveys---it doesn't even exist anymore. The Obama administration transmogrified it into the BOEM after its disastrous performance during the BP oil spill.


No, they changed the name. Calling a cows tail a leg doesn't mean the cow has 5 legs, it just means someone changed the name and presto! Instant change. 99.999% of the people who were MMS are now BOEM, and its sidekick agency BSEE (Bachelor of Science in Electrical Engineering?)

http://www.boemre.gov

So for many decades it was called MMS. Now all the same people, with a new figurehead, is called something else. And the reason they aren't BOEMRE? They didn't like being referred to as bummer. Distressing acronym, bummer.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')(2) The BOEM only surveys potential LEASE areas. They don't do these expensive surveys on areas that aren't open for leasing----and the vast majority of the offshore areas around the east coast, west coast, Puerto Rico and Alaska have never been open for leasing, and they've never been looked at with modern multi beam, 3-d seismic, and other geophysical methods.


Who says that a survey requires such methods? Certainly your Lewis and Clark cartoon ( an expedition which fell under the title of "Discovery", not "Survey"), while quite amusing, didn't have as much to do with surveying as it did survival and exploration. The great surveys of the west happened later, and some explanation of them is offered here.

http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/c1050/surveys.htm

As far as only lease areas, well, can you tell me when they put offshore Maine up for lease? Because certainly here is a "survey", particularly in the Lewis and Clark sense (or at least until someone else does the work, which they will then turn over to Bummer, the MMS, or their descendants.

Here is the current "survey" for the east coast. And nice chunks of Alaska.

http://www.boem.gov/Oil-and-Gas-Energy- ... Index.aspx

Certainly if they had all the new and cool stuff, they would use it, if only because the companies cough it up along the way. A requirement they are happy to tell you about, should you bump into any of these "surveyists".

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')(3) Making a modern, scientific survey of US coastal waters is just common sense. In the same way that Lewis and Clark and John Wesley Powell did scientific (and economic) surveys of the American west in the 19th century, its time for the US to survey its submarine waters.


It is common sense. But certainly Obama isn't about to pay for 3D seismic across the entire eastern seaboard, hell, he might be responsible for finding some conventional oil fields! And a Republican will demand that industry pay for it, because private industry does it better and why should taxpayer money do it for them!

In either case, it looks like bummer is doing about as much modern inventory they can, with the restrictions available. And unless you have a palatable scheme for funding god knows how many billions of dollars of seismic, it isn't even a feasible concept until the price of crude justifies the companies taking the risk and investing the money themselves.

As far as what seismic is capable of, I wonder if it is capable of finding the unconventional accumulations which appear to be pumping so much new oil into the system nowadays? When things aren't structure dependent, seismic strikes me as wonderful way to miss what in North Dakota has turned into one of the larger oil "structures" in the entire country.

And considering the amount of oil in old oil fields, versus new ones (another thread around here somewhere about the new US Survey estimates), who needs the new ones for awhile yet anyway? Go heat some old oil up, flush it out with CO2, drill crapy rock and frac the crap out of it, all the things which keep changing the baseline of how much is actually recoverable, a problem that peak oil continues to trip over every year as another round of reserve increases come along.
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Re: Romney: Peak Oil is Nigh

Postby dinopello » Fri 24 Aug 2012, 21:15:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seenmostofit', ' ')Go heat some old oil up, flush it out with CO2, drill crapy rock and frac the crap out of it


Romney/Ryan would probably agree that when you forcibly rape her, mother nature has a way of shutting that whole thing down. And, she won't get pregnant, but the rapist will be the primary one punished.
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Re: Romney: Peak Oil is Nigh

Postby Plantagenet » Fri 24 Aug 2012, 21:54:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seenmostofit', 'w')hen the MMS does a scientific inventory...MMS...MMS....the MMS...


Its impossible for the MMS to do anything now----it doesn't exist anymore. Why not just admit you made a mistake about this?

Cheers! :lol:

--------------
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', '.')..rape....rapist...


SHEESH! Get a grip on yourself, dino. Enough with the rape fantasies.
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Re: Romney: Peak Oil is Nigh

Postby seenmostofit » Fri 24 Aug 2012, 22:59:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seenmostofit', 'w')hen the MMS does a scientific inventory...MMS...MMS....the MMS...


Its impossible for the MMS to do anything now----it doesn't exist anymore. Why not just admit you made a mistake about this?

Cheers! :lol:


Oh, certainly I made a mistake. But interestingly, while the name shows up on their cards, I have seen them introduced more than once (within say, the last 3 months) as "members of the organization formerly known as...."

I'm not the only one who gets a kick out of the name change. :-D
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Re: Romney: Peak Oil is Nigh

Postby Plantagenet » Sat 25 Aug 2012, 01:04:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seenmostofit', '
')
Here is the current "survey" for the east coast. And nice chunks of Alaska.

http://www.boem.gov/Oil-and-Gas-Energy- ... Index.aspx

Certainly if they had all the new and cool stuff, they would use it.


Again, I don't think you read your own link. The "survey" you are so impressed with is just a general discussion of the regional geology, regional structures, a general review of geologic history, and a review of prior oil discovery (generally none, since these areas aren't open to leasing or drilling). There is no new data in it---in essence its just a literature review.

Thats not adequate to identify specific structures and potential drilling targets and make accurate estimates of the resource potential. AND your suggestion that "they would use" the cool stuff if they had it" is silly, because the government can hire the same independent private companies to do surveys that the oil majors use.

Ignorance is expensive----its time to find out what resources may or may not be present in US waters. 8)
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Re: Romney: Peak Oil is Nigh

Postby seenmostofit » Sat 25 Aug 2012, 09:28:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')Again, I don't think you read your own link. The "survey" you are so impressed with is just a general discussion of the regional geology, regional structures, a general review of geologic history, and a review of prior oil discovery (generally none, since these areas aren't open to leasing or drilling). There is no new data in it---in essence its just a literature review.


A geological survey of a new area can be exactly that. Particularly when the result is an estimate of how much oil and gas could be there, like the amount of oil possible off the eastern seaboard between New Jersey and Maine.

http://www.boem.gov/uploadedFiles/BOEM/ ... M-2012-016[1].pdf

Part of that evalution included some 240,000 miles of 2d seismic, quite an acquisition through 1988. At the time, that probably would have been modern, and certainly wasn't just a literature search.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')Thats not adequate to identify specific structures and potential drilling targets and make accurate estimates of the resource potential.


Says who, considering the number of fields found elsewhere with just such technology? And what is accurate? Or your definition of potential? To some people, it isn't even discovered until the field has been delineated, which is ridiculously conservative. Others feel free to randomly speculate with nothing more than the hope of oil....and seismic wouldn't identify a continuous accumulation anyway, a miss which by defintion make any estimate based on seismic not "accurate" right from the get go.

Are you implying that only putting a well into every square mile up the Atlantic seaboard would be sufficient for an accurate estimate?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
') AND your suggestion that "they would use" the cool stuff if they had it" is silly, because the government can hire the same independent private companies to do surveys that the oil majors use.


so the government will fund all oil exploration in an area the size of the Atlantic seaboard, including the drilling of wells to test for and delineate continuous accumulations? You can hire all the private contractors you'd like, and geophysicists to process and interpret everything, some drilling companies to sink the exploratory wells to determine which structures are full of oil rather than water, test for and delineate the continuous accumulations, I think it sounds like one of the greatest work programs ever imagined for government to undertake, and industry will think it is probably fantastic as well. Count me in!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')Ignorance is expensive----its time to find out what resources may or may not be present in US waters. 8)


I'm with ya. I don't think anyone is going to be happy with the cost of it all, but in a world of declining resources, it does make good sense. And will put tons of coin in people's pockets who do this stuff for a living, so some part of the economy will be firing on all cylinders (at taxpayer expense of course) but I am also a firm believer in narrowing the uncertainty involved in how much resource we have in the US.
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Re: Romney: Peak Oil is Nigh

Postby Plantagenet » Sat 25 Aug 2012, 12:43:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seenmostofit', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')Again, I don't think you read your own link. The "survey" you are so impressed with is just a general discussion of the regional geology, regional structures, a general review of geologic history, and a review of prior oil discovery (generally none, since these areas aren't open to leasing or drilling). There is no new data in it---in essence its just a literature review.


A geological survey of a new area can be exactly that.


Sure---if you want a book report on what is already known.

But if you want new and better data on which to make an accurate appraisal of energy resources based on modern geophysical data you have to actually collect the modern geophysical data.

----------------------------

I don't think you want scientists to do the research needed to learn more about these offshore areas. Personally, I do. Less ignorance about the earth and more scientific knowledge is always a good thing, IMHO. 8)
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Re: Romney: Peak Oil is Nigh

Postby seenmostofit » Sat 25 Aug 2012, 13:59:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seenmostofit', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')There is no new data in it---in essence its just a literature review.


A geological survey of a new area can be exactly that.


Sure---if you want a book report on what is already known.


A literature review of the geological processes which allow geologic and engineering professionals to then decide what, if any, of the organic matter was trapped under the right conditions of generation, if the rocks exist for migration and trapping were then not breached later, and if the conditions exist for the oil to be technically recoverable, and how much that might be, is certainly not a book report. Or conversely, if it were, everyone on this website could whip up one of their own, and then we could compare all of those estimates with the ones bummer has made. Have you seen even ONE of those at this website, ever?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')But if you want new and better data on which to make an accurate appraisal of energy resources based on modern geophysical data you have to actually collect the modern geophysical data.


The idea of the government hiring people (most oil and gas industry professionals won't fit within the government GS pay scales for such work, assuming they want to, and give up financial ties required for such government work) to analyze all the seismic, supervise the drilling of the wells, manage the data flow and then have competent modelers turn that into an estimate encompassing the appropriate ranges of uncertainty strikes me as...a difficult endeavor. Worthwhile to be sure, but more difficult than some might expect. Not that a politician has any appreciation for how difficult his new stump speech desire might be to accomplish.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')I don't think you want scientists to do the research needed to learn more about these offshore areas. Personally, I do. Less ignorance about the earth and more scientific knowledge is always a good thing, IMHO. 8)

Actually, I do. And I agree with you about scientific knowledge always being a good thing. I just don't think it will proceed without a cost/benefit analysis done by someone political, and with the clout to make it happen, let alone $$.
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Re: Romney: Peak Oil is Nigh

Postby Plantagenet » Sun 26 Aug 2012, 00:40:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seenmostofit', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')I don't think you want scientists to do the research needed to learn more about these offshore areas. Personally, I do. Less ignorance about the earth and more scientific knowledge is always a good thing, IMHO. 8)


Actually, I do. And I agree with you about scientific knowledge always being a good thing. I just don't think it will proceed without a cost/benefit analysis done by someone political, and with the clout to make it happen, let alone $$.


Well, its sure not going to happen on Obama's watch, if thats what you mean.

However, Romney's energy plan includes doing new surveys of US coastal waters to evaluate US energy resources, and then to increase leasing of prospective offshore tracts for oil development.

This would be great for Alaska and similar states who would like to see more offshore oil exploration in order to create more jobs and grow their economies.

Image
US offshore oil production plummetted after the BP oil disaster
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Re: Romney: Peak Oil is Nigh

Postby seenmostofit » Sun 26 Aug 2012, 10:10:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')
Well, its sure not going to happen on Obama's watch, if thats what you mean.


I don't figure it will happen on any Republicrats watch. It requires foresight, clout, the ability to understand why it is important, and the willingness to force others to agree with you to spend the money to make sure it gets done right. There isn't a Republicrat in sight capable of doing this as far as I'm concerned. Its called work. That isn't what the political establishment does any more.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')However, Romney's energy plan includes doing new surveys of US coastal waters to evaluate US energy resources, and then to increase leasing of prospective offshore tracts for oil development.


Romney is a Republicrat. At best Romney will task the usual government agencies to add up their numbers in a new and exciting way, and will tout whatever the result of that exercise is as fulfilling his plan. He won't do the hard work necessary to do it right. None of the Republicrats will.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')This would be great for Alaska and similar states who would like to see more offshore oil exploration in order to create more jobs and grow their economies.


Sure it would. But that doesn't mean it will get done. Republicrats aren't into doing actual work, or anything of use to their constituents nowadays.
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Re: Romney: Peak Oil is Nigh

Postby Ibon » Sun 26 Aug 2012, 11:46:08

Does it really make sense to speculate and argue over what corporations or political parties know about peak oil?

Consider this. It has been speculated that oil companies deny peak oil because they want their product to remain the dominant energy source and taking peak oil seriously would mean that investments, subsidies and infrastructure would start to leave this industry. We conclude therefore that the oil industry acts in their own self interest in controlling the message.

We speculate the same for politicians in that admitting peak oil does little for their election or reelection. It's a bad news story that labels you a pessimist etc.

Add to this the lobbying power of the oil industry inside the government.

If you assume the above is true than how can we even entertain the argument that one party more than the other is aware of the problem?

Furthermore, what real concrete value is there in entertaining what government or industry knows or is willing to communicate.

Do any of you really think that we can affect any change in this scenario?

Any industry leader or politician browsing this thread for example would smile down with a paternal smugness at how the pawns are squabbling over this topic. Pawns who hold absolutely know authority or power to affect any change whatsoever.

Why do we persist in playing at the game that we are really participants in the trajectory or outcome of this peak oil story.
Does this come from some need we have to feel empowered when deep down inside we really do know that we aren't .

So why do we persist?
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Re: Romney: Peak Oil is Nigh

Postby Plantagenet » Sun 26 Aug 2012, 12:11:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'D')oes it really make sense to speculate and argue over what corporations or political parties know about peak oil?


Depends on your worldview.

For cynics who discount every public statement of politicians or for people who think elections are shams and hidden corporate conspiracies are in control of every aspect of their lives, it doesn't make a bit of sense.

But for people who believe in education and the importance of the public arena of discourse and ideas, then it does make sense. I'm in this group---I believe strongly in things like the importance of science and education, and the power of knowledge and ideas and research and technology. I think its important when politicians and corporations publicly acknowledge the peak oil problem, because there is then a chance of educating the public and eventually we may even see intelligent governmental policies to deal with the peak oil problem. 8)
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Re: Romney: Peak Oil is Nigh

Postby Plantagenet » Sun 26 Aug 2012, 14:16:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')peak oil is not a problem, something to be solved like a budget impasse or a constitutional crisis.


You obviously don't know what the word "problem" means. Not every problem is solvable, as you assume.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')he Modern Suburban Technocrat (MST), ensconced in an electronic womb, suckling on an industrial umbilical cord, can not be expected to understand its place in the world. Our education system does not train its subjects to be informed


The education system has its own set of problems.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')he study of black holes, and sub-atomic particles will not create energy.


You lack of knowledge about sub-atomic physics and science in general shows you are a product of the American education system

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'F')orensic anthropology, the science of ecology, exponential human population growth/fossil-fuel declines, should make it clear that overshoot, dieoff and collapse will trump pop science.


Nothing "trumps" science. Science is simply the description of physical reality---you can't "trump" it. It just is what it is.
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Re: Romney: Peak Oil is Nigh

Postby seenmostofit » Sun 26 Aug 2012, 14:23:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'D')oes it really make sense to speculate and argue over what corporations or political parties know about peak oil?


No.

But I would respond with the same answer if the question was "Does it really make sense to speculate and argue what individuals or websites know about peak oil?" as well.

It is what it is. We will all respond differently, and to some of us, it has nearly already become a non issue, as you point out in some of the text I snipped.
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Re: Romney: Peak Oil is Nigh

Postby seenmostofit » Sun 26 Aug 2012, 14:30:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')You lack of knowledge about sub-atomic physics and science in general shows you are a product of the American education system


Unfair. Some are forced through circumstance to...say...participate in the state undergraduate and graduate systems because...well....good schools collect the good students...and leave the rest for the states to inflict their "learning" on. In pursuit of the American dream, there has to be some path for the less talented to convince them that they too have "won".
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Re: Romney: Peak Oil is Nigh

Postby Plantagenet » Sun 26 Aug 2012, 15:02:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seenmostofit', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')Your lack of knowledge about sub-atomic physics and science in general shows you are a product of the American education system


Unfair. Some are forced through circumstance to...say...participate in the state undergraduate and graduate systems because...well....good schools collect the good students...and leave the rest for the states to inflict their "learning" on. In pursuit of the American dream, there has to be some path for the less talented to convince them that they too have "won".


OK. I'll grant you that.

But the less talented---the kind of people who don't even know what the word "problem" means---should at least have had the common sense not to have lost every iota of common sense they ever had as they were "educated" in the American public education system.
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Re: Romney: Peak Oil is Nigh

Postby seenmostofit » Sun 26 Aug 2012, 15:31:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')But the less talented---the kind of people who don't even know what the word "problem" means---should at least have had the common sense not to have lost every iota of common sense they ever had as they were "educated" in the American public education system.


True. But for those trapped in a particular belief system, regardless of what that belief system is, there is no ability left to think outside the box they have created for themselves. Once the buy-in occurs, it is game over, intellectually speaking. That can happen to us, or be done to us (your example of public schooling being one), but I'm betting the ones who fall hardest are those who already have a propensity for an idea, and when given even illogical reasons, as long as they reinforce the preconceived notion, boom, game over, belief system installed.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3178

I often wonder if such a box can be broken out of, some earth shattering event or thing which blasts the individual out of their firmly established thinking patterns. It must be theoretically possible, even if rarely demonstrated.
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