[Pops]

I went ahead and updated the table because it changed on the close price from todays release.


---
But this is what I was really wanting to look at. I just dropped in the new plot leaving my scribbles the same and low and behold the price has bounced pretty close to my supply floor line and returned to the green line, what I had previously described as the "natural" price increase slope!




I relabeled that green line "depletion/EROI" thinking maybe those might explain why that rate of increase keeps showing up even though demand is falling and stocks are building. According to the old BLS (BS for short) inflation calculator, $35 in 04 equals 42.52 today so inflation ain't it.

It is just a simplistic straight trendline that equals about $15 per year.

[Pops]

Gypsy is firmly in control unless the price spikes to like 150 then drops back to 100!

--
So on the old Price Wedge chart, I dumped the old supply floor line and relabeled the green line the Peak Oil Constant,

I still have in place the orange line which I placed originally with the idea that the economy will not have a firm cap or even an increasing resistance level but the level at which oil price would impact GDP would actually decline as the economy gets weaker. That idea isn't disproved at all to this point, either the declining or constant economic pain threshold idea would expect to see the price flatten out any time now.

Look up the report and presentation I posted about the IMF study that modeled price on depletion rather than hubert linearization or the EIA/IHS style "production meets demand" theory. Their model predicts a constant rate of increase similar to mine, albeit somewhat shallower. Their model so far shows only a slight linear impact on GDP from oil price to this point but the guy who made the presentation said the next run will attempt to determine a "ceiling" at which demand and price is capped.

Of course the question is where does the price go if this is more or less the growth cap level?

[careinke]

Nice work Pops. So, are you thinking that we will stabilize and bounce along the red line? From a TA standpoint, I'm thinking a major breakout one way or the other (No clue which way), either when the green and red line cross, or it may be starting right now with the orange and green line cross.

If I were still playing the game, I'd bet both ways, looking for a rapid major move.

Thanks for the work.

[Pops]

Hey careinke, I meant to add that when I set the price to 150 you were the one in first place.
--

For the price to continue higher like it seems to want to, increasing demand in the poor world would need to continue to more than offset destruction in the rich wouldn't it? I mean we rich worlders seem to be puttering along at a pretty anemic rate, about the same as the All Liquids rate of growth.

On the strength of KSAs latest bump in production, the 7 year trendline of C+C has finally risen from flat to about a .2% per year increase so by the best measure we're not in depletion mode yet. But if you look at each one of the peaks in the chart below of C+C, except for '08 they were exactly that, a one month peak, the anomaly is the last 5 or 6 months at a sustained peak level.

So it will be interesting to see what happens, is the price high enough to keep production up? Can production stay up enough to keep the price in check? Or will the economy fold and crash the price?

I'm gonna guess production is falling right now and that is why the price is rising but I don't think it's gonna rise much more just because the economy everywhere is at a standstill. Obviously big news out of China, EU or the ME will change all that, and too it's the end of the summer and all the bad things happen in the fall...


http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2012/08/t ... nsate.html

[Daniel_Plainview]

So who's in first place for Brent crude so far in 2012?

Who's in first place for WTIC so far in 2012?

Who was in first place in 2011?

Who was in first place in 2010?

My point is there's no pattern. There's no consistent winner. It's all just randomness.

[Pops]

The names are in rank order, Rank is the first column.
You'd have to look at the WTI thread to see who is first there, probably Gypsy

The game was originally set up to combine the differences from Hi, Lo & last price to rank the winners, the last price plays as big a role as Hi & Lo which does throw in some randomness.

I added a "Range Diff" column way back (next to last in the green) which excludes the closing price, just considering the hi & lo. You could consider that as an alternate game, "Pick The Top and Bottom": Gypsy is 1st (21¢ off the lo) Midessa is 2nd and you are third.

Who knows who was in what place last year? I'll send you the spreadsheet if you want to figure it out.

There wasn't a Brent game in '10.

Yeah there is a consistent winner, ask Gypsy.

[SeaGypsy]

Heading for 3 years straight wins on WTI, plus this first on Brent. Daniel mustn't have been paying attention
I'm still not happy with my highs on either this year. Both out by more than a selling margin.

[PeakOiler]

I just checked this thread, and wow!, I like my rank here better than on the WTI Oil Price Challenge thread.

[sparky]

.
It's been noted before , the WTI index is an aberation
it has become a plaything of traders ,
the media keep quoting it out of habit and because "West Texas"sound cute
most of the oil consumed in the U.S. is either Brent or Tapis indexed

[SeaGypsy]

Many news outlets list WTI as: Oil $xx.xxbb With no mention of which index they are bullshitting about. Currently in Australia the ABC is the only major news publisher using Tapis (the Singapore exchange)as it's index price, and it does say so.

[Pops]

Another week the 120 ceiling holds.

Brent topped at US$117.45 before dropping back closing on the 28th at 112.62

Midessa is in the lead again followed by
DP
me
SG
POer

I played around and it is actually possible for me to win if the close is $115 +/50¢ or so, LOL! Higher and SG wins, lower and Midessa wins - within the existing hi & low anyway.

[SeaGypsy]

Just saw the news here that WTI/ Brent/ Tapis spread is going crazy again, just over $90 at WTI, $120+ for Tapis at the other end, with spread growing at both ends/ what gives?

[Pops]

I red in that article about the pricing of oil that Tapis is kind of going away as a benchmark because not much is actually sold...
here it is:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f alternative crude oils cannot be delivered against a benchmark, declining production volumes can weaken the status of that crude oil as a benchmark. This is because it becomes a less accurate barometer of current supply and demand as it becomes traded less frequently, and lower traded volumes enable individual market participants to influence the price more easily. Malaysian Tapis – which was previously a key benchmark for the Asia-Pacific region – is a case in point. Tapis's benchmark status has faded away in recent years owing to declining production volumes; recently, only a single cargo of Tapis has typically been available for export each month, down from around 8 cargoes per month in previous years.[7] This compares with around 45 cargoes per month currently for the Brent benchmark. Declining production volumes, coupled with the absence of any alternative similar crude oils produced in the region, have seen refiners and producers shift to benchmark against other prices, predominantly Brent.

[SeaGypsy]

Ok, just catching up, at posting Brent is $112.50:
http://ycharts.com/indicators/brent_cru ... spot_price

I'm amazed the drastic reduction in Tapis hasn't made news; it appears all Australasian fields are in rapid decline...

[Pops]

As mentioned elsewhere:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '�')��Daily trading in Brent jumped 14% to average 567,000 contracts in the year to Nov. 20 compared with all of 2011, while WTI fell 17% to 575,000, according to data from the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London and New York Mercantile Exchange compiled by Bloomberg. The number of Brent futures changing hands has exceeded those for WTI every month from April through October, the longest streak since at least 1995.”

[AdTheNad]

No posts for a month here. Bump for anyone looking for last minute inspiration in the 2013 challenge.

[Beery1]

I'm eager to post my 2013 prediction, but I'm going to wait until later today to see what the final end-of-year price is for 2012.

I guess a reminder wouldn't go amiss that today is the last day to get in the game for 2013. If we miss it, our prognostications will be shaded the dreaded gray and we won't get the full measure of respect if we win.

[Pops]

Here is the updated almost final, Brent is trading at 110.65 and climbing right this second, the official final won't be released until next Tuesday. Looks like another record year with an average over 111...

Brent Oil Price Challenge 12 31.png

Thanks to PeakOiler for checking up on me!

[Midessa]

Haha, in your face losers! Pay up suckas, I want my propers.

Just kidding. I played this one conservatively but in the WTI challenge I went with gloom and doom and lost badly.

[Pops]

You earn Respecto Mundo for that forecast, my Man!