THE Julian Robertson Thread (merged)

by **OilsNotWell** » Mon 06 Jun 2005, 14:30:20

I just MAY have debunked the incredible distortion by Al Martin of this interview. Julian Robertson was indeed on CNBC on May 24th, but I could not find any reference to the supposed catastrophe he supposedly talks about. Well, I just found the archived video hosted on the Wall Stree Journal of the interview...and he says nothing REMOTELY close the disaster as described...concerned yes, but not apocalyptic!

CNBC Video - Julilan Robertson - and Al Martin EXPOSED.

Play through the first "Sun" "ad" and the relevant comments are about halfway through...

by **Carrie** » Mon 06 Jun 2005, 15:18:45

WOW!! Thanks, OilsNotWell, that's just what we needed! I guess we can put this to rest now.

I'm sorry about stirring everyone up with this article, but I'm glad that we found out what the real story was. And it looks like Al Martin may be scamming his subscribers. :evil:

by **OilsNotWell** » Mon 06 Jun 2005, 15:46:54

The earlier post was Part II, this is part I...

CNBC - Julian Robertson - Part One

by **Worried** » Tue 07 Jun 2005, 18:44:39

You think the government will play by the rules in the case of a collapse? They are creating the problem and have made new rules too. See http://www.tbrnews.org/Archives/a1280.htm for a complete rundown of the executive orders and secret plans just waiting to take control. Here's a piece of it:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Under "REX" the President could declare a state of emergency, empowering the head of FEMA to take control of the internal infrastructure of the United States and suspend the constitution. The President could invoke executive orders 11000 thru 11004 which would:

2- Draft all citizens into work forces under government supervision.

3- Empower the postmaster to register all men, women and children.

4- Seize all airports and private and commercial aircraft.

5- Seize all housing and establish forced relocation of citizens.

by **DomusAlbion** » Tue 07 Jun 2005, 18:56:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Worried', 'S')ee URL... for a complete rundown of the executive orders and secret plans just waiting to take control.

by **PenultimateManStanding** » Tue 07 Jun 2005, 19:18:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')The poor migrate to now-empty shopping centers where the government sets up sleeping warehouses in abandoned superstores like Cosco and Walmart. The destitute and cramped conditions require pacification so drugs of every sort are legalized and given away free by the government. The enclosed malls halls become ersatz communities where bored, drugged Americans live out their pathetic lives. Just like they always have.

And that is the fun future.

by **walker** » Fri 10 Jun 2005, 16:25:50

It's difficult to know what to think any more. I read and hear so many people uttering their doomsday predictions. I wonder how many people are mockingly taking advantage of trustful readers. I'm very open minded, but when I experience what seem to be blantant exaggerations such as this whole Julian Robertson interview bit and how 'Conspiracy Planet' proposed it, it makes me wonder whether today's 'doomsday conspiracy mountain' is a total illusion... I wonder if anything has any validity at all. Perhaps I should not expect real news from anything called 'Conspiracy Planet' at all.

This is frustrating for someone who is willing to prepare for such things, and is trying to get a clear picture of what is happening.

-Peak oil is coming
-The housing bubble is going to burst
-We're all going to scrounge around in abandoned K-Marts while we're high on heroin

Right... right... should I toss all of this onto the burning bed of worthless illusions too?

by **jjames3157** » Fri 15 Jul 2005, 20:33:03

<b>Or are we all a bunch of panicked parots?</b>
Listen. I know you guys - all of us really - are scared about what's going on in our world today. But lets not forget to research.
I went out and did some research on the prominent figurse in this story. <b>According to everything I could find, Martin essentially fabricated several parts of his story, or at least seriously blew them out of proportion, even going so far as to directly and repeatedly mis-quote robertson on key points.</b> I am still working on it, but all the sources I saw seemed to indicate that it was in fact a very tame interview, nothing like the dire warning of apocolypse portrayed in martin's article.

Here is what I found on the central figures:
-The interview did occur. May 24, 2004, CNB, with Ron Insana. Clips are no longer available online at major sites (others, perhaps, but not easily avail.);

-Julian Robertson IS in fact a major wallstreet figure. He left his company, Tiger Management, in the late 90's when his macro-investment strategies did not prove succesful in tech-boom/bubble era. Today doing quite well in us and int. personal holdings. His macro-investment strategy seems to have either been-modified/come back into style;

-Al martin is a fringe analyst. He has at least one book out, but all of his work is published through the dubious do-it-yourself publishing house of National Liberty Press, LLC, which is apparently a small, DIY publishing house that prints books for a variety of far-left/right groups about the coming apocolypse, government conspiracies, ex-kgb officers now spying on americans in their own homes, and things like that. There are no links on Mr. martin's page for validation of his credentials or history, beyond one to Uri Dowbenko, author of www.conspiracydigest.com. While I wouldnt call him a nutjob, I would say that I certainly didnt find any information after two hours of seraching to attest to his integrity as a source;

-above all else, while other references to the Robertson-Insana can be found, none of them protray it as extreme or even anomalous in any way except in reference to its portrayal by Martin.

Those are the facts I found. Maybe there are more, but at this point I think that Martin seems like a kook, and that he probably made up robertson's teary-eyed endtime predictions.

Check out these Websites for yourself. Below the websites are some handy search strings.

http://www.investopedia.com/university/ ... ertson.asp
(Julian Robertson profile)

http://dmoz.org/Business/Publishing_and ... /Business/
(Popular list of some national publishers)

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/produc ... 8&n=283155
(Martin's book)

http://www.insightmag.com/main.cfm?incl ... yid=161343
(Story that mentions Uri Dowbenko's WS)

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg. ... d=21387557
(Investment Reader forum mentioning Martin article)

http://randomroger.blogspot.com/2005/05 ... rtson.html
(Another of the same. More informative, better replies)

Search: "Julian robertson" "CNBC" ""may 24 2004"
Search: "Al martin"
Search: "Julian Robertson" "ron insana"

by **shady28** » Fri 29 Jul 2005, 22:11:22

" Often called "Never Been Wrong Robertson", the former head of Tiger Management (once the largest hedge fund in the world), is extremely worried about the speculative bubble in real estate.
Specifically, he is very worried about a world that is sustained by American consumer spending which is in turn 1/4 sustained by a property bubble. He predicts that 20 million people could lose their homes once the property bubble bursts. ...
The planet's net liquidity, that is its, net free cash flow. Is now a negative number. The planet is not simply sinking into a sea of red ink; it is already sunk. "

Note : CNBC contends the story is a fraud. http://andongkim.com/articles/2005/06/J ... llapse.htm

by **Carrie** » Fri 29 Jul 2005, 22:47:26

It's been discussed in this thread:

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic8524.html+cnbc

The consensus is that even though the interview took place, the reported content is completely false.

by **gego** » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 00:37:38

How is it that the housing bubble will burst, meaning that prices will collapse, and at the same time we will need wheelbarrows full of money to shop for groceries? Seems like inconsistent statements????

by **Eli** » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 01:11:32

I do not think it is consistant Gego.

The housing market has been in a boom state since 1996 one reason for this fact which is often over looked was the tax law passed by President Clinton that allows an individual to pay no tax on the sale of a house up to 250,000 profit and 500,000 for couples.

So you have this inflated value in home sales, buy a house flip it and make cash and pay no taxes. Do the same thing with a stock and you pay 15% on any gain.

Anyway interest rates are rising home sales are maxed out and people have over paid for housing because it is going up every year and is a great investment because it is going up every year.

So you have an abundance of homes that have inflated prices for sale with buyers who can no longer afford the interest rates. Low interest rates have been a key to getting people to buy in this current market.

Food production on the other hand is totally Dependant on the price of oil and energy. It is also a product that people cannot do with out. You can live in a one bedroom flat rather than a mansion but you can't live in either without food.

So the in elasticity for food and it's direct tie to oil prices will cause the price of food to be driven up. Every step of the way in our modern food production system oil is the key to our current production.
There is only so much you can trim your belt.

"A quart of wheat for a day's wages and three quarts of barley for a day's wages,but do not touch the oil and wine"

by **jaws** » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 17:51:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', 'H')ow is it that the housing bubble will burst, meaning that prices will collapse, and at the same time we will need wheelbarrows full of money to shop for groceries? Seems like inconsistent statements????

by **MonteQuest** » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 21:01:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', 'H')ow is it that the housing bubble will burst, meaning that prices will collapse, and at the same time we will need wheelbarrows full of money to shop for groceries? Seems like inconsistent statements????

by **skiwi** » Mon 01 Aug 2005, 12:22:00

Doomsday: The Final Months of the “Housing Bubble”

“The worldwide rise in house prices is the biggest bubble in history. Prepare for the economic pain when it pops.”

-- The Economist

by **skiwi** » Mon 01 Aug 2005, 18:09:29

And here in New Zealand a lot of people are going to be just as screwed
And from the attitude of most people I've spoken to in the last few weeks

Burn baby burn you've got it coming

Household borrowing rampant

There is little evidence that the Reserve Bank has broken the back of the housing market boom, with households still borrowing.
Reserve Bank figures showed that borrowing rose more than 15 per cent in the June year, with household debt up about $16 billion to about $112 billion.
Last week the Reserve Bank said the housing market represented "an upside risk for the future path of household spending and inflation".
The blistering rate of growth in household borrowing has been steady for the past nine months around 15 per cent.
The racking up of debt was "frothy", according to Bank of New Zealand economists, and was aligned with continuing strength in the housing market.
But households were not the only big borrowers.
Business debt was up 15.6 per cent, by $7 billion, in the June year. Farmers borrowed another $3.3 billion, up 15 per cent.........

by **jtmorgan61** » Tue 02 Aug 2005, 02:02:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '�')��The worldwide rise in house prices is the biggest bubble in history. Prepare for the economic pain when it pops.”

-- The Economist

by **OilsNotWell** » Tue 02 Aug 2005, 02:24:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')reenspan also worked for Clinton, in fact was one of only a few people to stay on when the government changed.

THE Julian Robertson Thread (merged)

collapse

Re: collapse

So, does anyone actually do any RESEARCH around here?

Global Economic Collapse, says Julian Robertson

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