[Graeme]

This report was posted on the front page a few days ago but I think it should be posted here too.

USGS Releases Global Oil & Gas Reserve Growth Estimates

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he U.S. Geological Survey has released a new global estimate for potential additions to oil and gas reserves due to reserve growth in discovered fields outside the United States. The USGS estimates that the mean undiscovered, conventional reserve additions in the world total 665 billion barrels of oil (bbo), 1,429 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas, and 16 billion barrels of natural gas liquids.

These volumes constitute a significant portion of the world’s oil and gas resources and represent an estimate of the potential future growth of current global reserve estimates over time based on better assessment methodology, new technologies and greater understanding of current reservoirs, among other advances.

Reserve growth is the increase in estimated volumes of oil and natural gas that can be recovered from existing fields and reservoirs through time. Most reserve growth results from delineation of new reservoirs, field extensions, or improved recovery techniques thereby improving efficiency, and recalculation of reserves due to changing economic and operating conditions.

[seenmostofit]

You know, the numbers being reported which OilFinder2 rounds up, and these types of estimates from oil and gas scientists, (including this recent update of the 2000 USGS work)

http://www.doi.gov/news/pressreleases/U ... ources.cfm

if you add up all the billions, suddenly you are talking about real amounts of oil.

[ralfy]

It is accepted that we've used only around a quarter of oil resources worldwide. The problem is that one report indicates that the extraction rate from NA will add 4 to 6 mb/d to production for the next two decades. Unfortunately, demand may have to go up around 2 mb/d a year to maintain economic growth.

[seenmostofit]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'I')t is accepted that we've used only around a quarter of oil resources worldwide.

[dissident]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')robability distributions of original
in-place volumes for U.S. fields were
assigned to reported original in-place vol-
umes for fields outside the United States.
Probability distributions of recovery fac-
tors for the 68 U.S. oil accumulations were
assumed for oil fields outside the United
States. A uniform probability distribution
of the mean reported recovery factor of
nonassociated gas fields outside the United
States was assumed for recovery factors
in gas fields. The original in-place and
recovery factor distributions assigned to
a given field were statistically combined
(multiplied) by Monte Carlo simulation
to provide a probability distribution of
estimated reserve growth.

[Pops]

You stopped just short of the money line graeme
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')o attempt was made to estimate economically recoverable oil and gas as part of these future projections.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissident', 'Y')eah, climate models are dubious but this is really solid work here.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') thing the people at the USGS forgot about the SEC rules and that oil producers in the US always lowball their reserve estimates to be on the safe side. This is not the practice around the world.

[Graeme]

I didn't expect to see this response! While a discussion of reserve numbers is, well relevant, if one looks at the overall picture, it becomes moot. Firstly, we have been advised repeatedly by individuals and agencies to move away from oil for mainly environmental reasons. The oil is best left in the ground. Do you think oil companies will heed these warnings? Nah. Then again they may have to invest in renewables eventually because, secondly, we have seen reports in the media that grid parity is fast approaching. We'll be there in a decade or two if not locally already. This means that these reserves are unlikely to be completely depleted, which should be a relief in more ways than one to us all.

[Pops]

[Graeme]

In an ideal world, where everyone cooperates perfectly, exponential growth of renewables (esp solar) would solve our energy problems. However, in America the powerful right-wing will try to disrupt this trend and maintain the status quo. It is in this regime where a lack of oil supply (PO) could come into play.

I just saw this disturbing article about the growth of renewables in China. Again it illustrates how imperfect our world is. Surprise, surprise, China plans to use it's coal! However, on an optimistic note right at the very end, the article says that China's contribution will be "driving down the cost of renewable energy for everybody else".

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'n') an ideal world, where everyone cooperates perfectly, exponential growth of renewables (esp solar) would solve our energy problems. However, in America the powerful right-wing will try to disrupt this trend and maintain the status quo. It is in this regime where a lack of oil supply (PO) could come into play.

[ralfy]

Related, and prob. reposted:

"Dirt Cheap Natural Gas Is Tearing Up The Very Industry That's Producing It"

http://www.businessinsider.com/capital- ... gas-2012-6

As mentioned in

"Shale Gas Reality Begins to Dawn"

http://theautomaticearth.com/Finance/sh ... -dawn.html

[Pops]

Now doc you gotta admit, tree huggers didn't vote for Drill Baby. LOL I kinda think some folks believe that oil wasn't mentioned in the creation story because making it is still God's daily Job One, right after punishing the US for tolerating queers.

But you are right about Oil cos, Shell was one of the biggest PV manufacturers for a while but they got out of it in favor of biofuels. Which I think points up the real challenge, transport is liquids based and we'll naturally move to a substitute liquid first.

But I guess the question of how governments respond to the problem is contained in your and Graeme's comment. Graeme says China is "driving down PV costs" – they are doing that by subsidizing their PV industry, the American response can be one of 2 things, either subsidize our PV industry, including it's missteps – the right doesn't like that idea – so the only option is to subsidize profits: give up on competing, impose a tariff and let China do the making and innovating.


--
Thanks for the link Ralfy. Exactly what I've been saying about nat. gas and fracking as a whole. The headlong rush and crowing about a glut sound like parched desert travelers descending on a camel's piddle puddle, not salvation from the problem but a sign post of the problem.

[Graeme]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'n') an ideal world, where everyone cooperates perfectly, exponential growth of renewables (esp solar) would solve our energy problems. However, in America the powerful right-wing will try to disrupt this trend and maintain the status quo. It is in this regime where a lack of oil supply (PO) could come into play.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')henever you try to defend the oil industry, I smell a rat (corruption)

[Graeme]

New Assessment of Oil and Gas Reserves Released by USGS

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he United States Geological Survey (USGS) is charged with the cataloging and assessment of land formations and mineral reserves in the United States. They have recently assessed the potential additions to domestic oil and gas reserves from reserve growth in discovered, conventional accumulations. All the assessed reserves are believed to be technically recoverable and do not include Federal offshore areas. The numbers show significant growth in the known (discovered) fields throughout the country.


The following are some highlights from the USGS report:
- Convention reserve growth for Oil: 32 billion barrels
Natural Gas: 291 trillion cubic feet
Natural Gas Liquides: 10 billion barrels
- Most reserve growth for oil is in the Alaska/Pacific region (20 billion barrels)
- Most reserve growth for natural gas and natural gas liquids is in the Gulf Coast region (144 trillion cubic feet).

USGS also released a report of oil and natural gas reserve growth in the entire world outside of the US. There was a total of 665 billion barrels of oil, 1.429 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 16 billion barrels of natural gas liquids.

Link to USGS US Report
Link to USGS World Report

[Pops]

Same report you posted before...

No that doesn't mean reserves doubled - LOL!

[Graeme]

Thanks. I saw another reference and thought it was new. . . Actually, there is a separate link for US oil and gas reserves.