[Graeme]

Shortages: Is 'peak oil' idea dead?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ince humans found that oil was better than coal for shifting vehicles, people have fretted over oil wells running dry.

Bouts of anxiety are periodic. In the seventies a Shell geoscientist, M King Hubbert, sounded an alarm that supplies would peak by 1995 "if current trends continue."

They didn't peak. Fear is a powerful motivator and forecasting a shortage can be a good way of avoiding one.

Instead of seeing the 1970s oil crisis end in a long-term shortage, we responded by developing more fuel-efficient cars and burning less oil for heating. And what's more, oil production continued to grow.

The latest bout of worry over oil supplies was provoked by a series of events in the 2000s, including the 9/11 terrorist attacks on New York, the Iraq War and an unfortunate incident in which Shell's chairman resigned after the firm overstated its oil reserves by 250 million barrels.

It all disturbed President George W Bush. And his fears over energy security brought him into alignment with Tony Blair, who was pressing to combat climate change. The two agendas fortuitously converged - for a while - in the shape of home-grown energy sources like renewables and nuclear.

And by 2006 it looked as though the oil doomsters were being proved right.

Production actually fell, and by 2008 the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security began warning that an oil shortage could destabilise economic, political and social activity potentially by 2015.

A new parliamentary committee on Peak Oil amplified their concerns. And the government-funded UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) said forecasts suggesting oil production will not peak before 2030 were "at best optimistic and at worst implausible".

Fears over Peak Oil have been exacerbated by the extraordinary surge of car ownership in China - 14.5 million new cars shipped to dealers last year.

[SeaGypsy]

We've always found more, so we will always find more. Logic? Why bother, rhetoric is so much easier to ignore.

[SilentRunning]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'W')e've always found more, so we will always find more. Logic? Why bother, rhetoric is so much easier to ignore.

[Lore]

Anything much lower then the current price means operators will be producing at a loss. Which should tell you something about what point we are at along the path of peak oil.

[Keith_McClary]

"If oil goes below $80, forget about looking for jobs in oil exploration."

I heard said.

[SeaGypsy]

Going there doesn't matter; staying there- forget looking for any job pretty soon, there won't be any.

[ralfy]

Hubbert stated 1995 + 10 years (or after 2005) in a 1976 interview:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImV1voi41YY

He adds that the peak may move or extend, but the principle is the same.

In April, 2011, ABC looked back at at a report about peak oil made in 2006:

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid ... 3952854011

and noted that the IEA has acknowledged that world oil production has peaked:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v0ujDVRIzGM

A few weeks later, BP released data showing energy consumption exceeding production from conventional sources from 2006 to the present, with the difference met by non-conventional sources:

"Running dry"

http://www.economist.com/node/21519035

The peak for global production, though, will look more like a plateau, probably with slight increases and decreases, before starting to drop, because it involves a larger data set. Move away from a chart illustrating that and look across more decades, and the peak will appear and look sharper.

Also important together with demand are production per capita (peaked in the late 1970s), the energy cost of non-conventional sources, the additional energy required each year to maintain a level of economic growth, and the various resources needed (fresh water, etc.).

[seenmostofit]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'W')e've always found more, so we will always find more. Logic? Why bother, rhetoric is so much easier to ignore.

[sunweb]

For those who support fracking, oil sands and the northern pipeline or for those who encourage investing in fracking, oil sands or the northern pipeline, I have this suggestion. Move your home next to a fracking well and put down your water well along side. Or better yet move your children there or better yet move your grandchildren there. Let the pipeline filled with toxic fluid come along the boundaries of your land here in lovely Northern Minnesota or wherever you live. The same for the oil sand works in Canada. Move your grandchildren up there in the poisonous air and next to the polluted rivers and environmental degradation.

Here is an interesting quote from a proponent of oil sands:
Oil Sands Could ‘Delay’ Peak Oil - Candice Beaumont
http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/featu ... k-oil.html
** from a portion of the interview****

“Ludwig: Where else are oil sands located besides Canada?

Beaumont: There are some oil sands in the United States as well. In Utah there are some oil sands, and in West Texas. But it's harder to produce in the U.S., because it's still environmentally very difficult.

In Canada, it's in very remote places, it's 40 below zero, nobody is going to that neighborhood. In the U.S., in West Texas, people live where the oil reserves are and so you couldn't have the type of environmental impact that they are doing in Canada, where they are basically destroying the environment. If a bird flies over a river near the oil sands, the bird dies just from flying over the river. It's that toxic. They are just dumping all the waste into the waterways. If you did that in the U.S. you would be in jail.

Ludwig: Is that going to be an issue over the long term?

Beaumont: It's an issue. But because it's in remote areas and not inhabited, they aren't worrying about the pollution, because nobody lives in that area. So, they can do it.”

And I say, “We do live there, it is our earth.”
To be found in my essay: http://sunweber.blogspot.com/2011/02/cu ... eport.html

and http://sunweber.blogspot.com/2012/01/walk-walk.html

[ian807]

No, the peak oil idea isn't dead, assuming you can do arithmetic. Admittedly, this excludes both the inept and lazy which make up the majority.

The peak oil denial stories are coming out at just the right intervals to create brand awareness, and ever more frequently on sits that don't allow user comments. Pretty obvious and blatant to anyone who's paying attention, but that's not too many.

[AgentR11]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'S')hortages: Is 'peak oil' idea dead?

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sunweb', 'T')hey are just dumping all the waste into the waterways. If you did that in the U.S. you would be in jail.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sunweb', 'T')hey are just dumping all the waste into the waterways. If you did that in the U.S. you would be in jail.

[ian807]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'S')hortages: Is 'peak oil' idea dead?

[FarQ3]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Agent R11 wrote:

Not dead, but the idea that a peak in oil production would cause a huge crash has obviously been eliminated.

[SeaGypsy]

I think that's what's happening now with the Saudis planning to curtail production in July (when the could have done so at $90). A bit of a grind at the bottom ensures a stronger spike, when it does come, because of this mothballing of tight oil projects.

[sunweb]

Keith_McClary - Your reply seemed inane to me. No matter where we destroy our nest (earth) we or our future generations will pay for it.
However, our oil wells, tar sands and fracking are rather limited in Minnesota (Dakatos are making up for it). I suggest the book Willful Blindness by M. Hallernan

Willful Blindness, Willful Hypocrisy,
What’s your spin?

Here’s the deal. Research reveals that we lie to ourselves. Not you and I of course, but others do prolifically. Willful Blindness is one of various books and research papers that verify this. We seem to fool ourselves for a variety of reasons. Two of the main reasons, one is self protective and the other is social protective.
From:
http://sunweber.blogspot.com/2012/06/wi ... y-you.html

[Heineken]

The PO idea may not be dead, but it certainly doesn't capture my imagination the way it once did.

For now, the economy still leads and oil follows. When that situation turns around, we'll be at the peak. Who knows how long it will take. Decades.

[SeaGypsy]

Someone else captures that these days Heini!

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'T')he PO idea may not be dead, but it certainly doesn't capture my imagination the way it once did.

For now, the economy still leads and oil follows. When that situation turns around, we'll be at the peak. Who knows how long it will take. Decades.