[nero]

ANWR (Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge) has become a political football in America. Some support opening this wilderness area to drilling for oil since it is estimated that there is another elephant somewhere in there. Others feel that it is the thin edge of the wedge and if they open this wilderness area there's nothing to stop them from drilling in Yellowstone or the Grand Canyon.
Where do you guys stand?

[Leanan]

I think we should leave it closed. There's not enough oil there to make a difference, even if the rosiest estimates are correct.
However, I think we will drill ANWR, when TSHTF. If gas prices get too high, the political pressure will be intense to drill anywhere and everywhere.
And maybe ANWR won't be worth saving by then, anyway. The Inuit are reporting that global warming is becoming very obvious in the Artic. Summers are longer, ice is thinner, and the animals that depend on thick ice are starving. Nowhere on Earth is truly untouched.

[buster]

My feeling on this isn't covered by any of the choices.
Here's the logic: If we really need it now, then our children will need it a hell of a lot more.
If we don't need it, we don't need it.

It's also true that the amount of oil likely to be there (estimated at anywhere from 3 billion barrels to 16 billion) isn't really that much in the overall scheme of things. On the other hand, 3-16 billion WILL be a lot of oil in 50 years or so, when we've better learned how to temper our usage.
As to "clean" methods of claiming the oil, if we have clean methods now, it seems likely our methods in 50 years will be even cleaner.

[JayHMorrison]

Don't forget about the National Petroleum Reserve. ANWR is to the east of where they are currently drilling. The NPR is to the west.
Why is it that ANWR is always brought up and nobody really mentions the NPR?
Here is a summary of what is available in ANWR: link

The USGS estimated:
-a 95 percent probability that at least 5.7 billion barrels of technically recoverable undiscovered oil are in the ANWR coastal plain,
-a 5 percent probability that at least 16 billion barrels of technically recoverable undiscovered oil are in the ANWR coastal plain, and
-a mean or expected value of 10.3 billion barrels of technically recoverable undiscovered oil in the ANWR coastal plain.
-80 percent of the technically recoverable oil is commercially developable at an oil price of $25 per barrel (1998 dollars)

In the National Petroleum Reserve of Alaska (West of Prudhoe Bay),
there is between 5.9 and 13.2 billion barrels of oil (BBO) of technically recoverable oil and between 39.1 and 83.2 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of natural gas on federal lands within NRPA

[JayHMorrison]

As part of the assessment, the USGS looked not only at the resources within NPRA but also at how these figures compared to estimates for oil and gas in the 1002 Area of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). As Table 2 shows, the technically recoverable resources available in NPRA and ANWR are similar in quantity. "The similarities between these estimates may be misleading, however, because of differences in accumulation sizes (the ANWR study are is estimated to contain more acculumations in larger size classes) and differences in assessment area (the NPRA study area is more than 12 times larger than the ANWR study area)." At market prices of less than $35 per barrel, the larger accumulations and proximity to existing infrastructure make the resources within ANWR more economically recoverable than those in NPRA. But these differences are moot when the market prices goes above $35 per barrel.
http://www.agiweb.org/gap/legis107/npra.html

[JayHMorrison]

With oil now significantly above $35 per barrel, I wonder how long it will be before we start hearing about Alaska again.
The limitation on Alaska drilling is the Alaska pipeline. It can push about 2.2 million bpd south to the loading terminals. At present, they are sending 1 million bpd through it.
So even if we start drilling in ANWR and NPR, then we only fill the pipeline again to maximum capacity for about 25 years if we assume that each field produces at about the middle of both of their estimates.

[Coolman]

I know I am protesting if they drill in ANWR, how dare they want to touch nature, i rather suffer Peak Oil then have them drill in ANWR.

[MrPC]

I picked the last option, not because I agree with it, but because it's the closest. ANWR's daily output will not make a scrap of difference in the grand scheme of things, even if you're an optimist.
Maybe in 50 years when all the critters are extinct and oil is valued, but not now while the critters are still there and oil is burned for fun.

[k_semler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Coolman', 'I') know I am protesting if they drill in ANEW, how dare they want to touch nature, i rather suffer Peak Oil then have them drill in ANWR.

[nero]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Buster', 'M')y feeling on this isn't covered by any of the choices. Here's the logic: If we really need it now, then our children will need it a hell of a lot more. If we don't need it, we don't need it.

[hymalaia]

K-semler - you may as well throw up the white flag and surrender with that additude. Perhaps you already have. ANWR is more a symbolic than practical item. By saying "we might as well finish the job", as your reason you are showing a lack of concern for the precarious state of our societies and our planet. As far as over-indulging in a convenient, high consumption life-style, I personally would rather work on curbing that step by step than rape the remaining wild-life. Many things we have are simply unneccesary and cost a lot of energy. It might be an uphill battle but it's better than giving up (which is what I consider running for the bunker to be).

So no, don't drill.

[Coolman]

K_semlar, first of all, I would love to live off the land, believe me, but I lack the training cause I was born into a society that does not require it, and I don't drive a car, I ride a bike everywere, I hate cars and refuse to get one. I feel depressed almost everytime I use electricity, such as this computer, so don't tell me how I am. Peak Oil is the best thing that could happen to the world in my eyes.

[buster]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nero', 'O')ne of the reasons why some companies wish to open ANWR is that if the pipeline is kept open longer they can pump a larger fraction of their existing fields. This analysis is of course moot when the prices spike because of peak oil, then almost any pipeline tariff will be acceptable.

[k_semler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hymalaia', 'K')-semler - you may as well throw up the white flag and surrender with that attitude. Perhaps you already have. ANWR is more a symbolic than practical item. By saying "we might as well finish the job", as your reason you are showing a lack of concern for the precarious state of our societies and our planet. As far as over-indulging in a convenient, high consumption life-style, I personally would rather work on curbing that step by step than rape the remaining wild-life. Many things we have are simply unnecessary and cost a lot of energy. It might be an uphill battle but it's better than giving up (which is what I consider running for the bunker to be). So no, don't drill.

[PhilBiker]

For cripes' sake let's put to rest the whole "there's not enough there to make a difference" fallacy. We're drilling all over the world in lots of areas a lot smaller than ANWR right now, thousands of small oil fields and a few really giant ones make up our total 80mbl/day appettite. Every one of those small fields contributes importantly to the total world production. ANWR most definitely absolutely is important. Just because it's not as big as Ghawar doesn't mean it's worthless. We're drilling right now in smaller reserviors all over the world. I guess they're all too small to make a difference also. I see it as the USA's "ultimate" strategic reserve. We will need it and use it.

[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')or cripes' sake let's put to rest the whole "there's not enough there to make a difference" fallacy. We're drilling all over the world in lots of areas a lot smaller than ANWR right now,

[nero]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd how much is really up there is still debatable. Remember, only a couple of years ago, people though the Caspian was going to be another Ghawar. Maybe bigger. But it turns out there's only 10% of what they thought was there.

[buster]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nero', 'I')f the richest most powerful country in the world can't resist the temptation to despoil one of their most pristine wilderness areas what hope is there for the Amazon or Africa's natural heritage (or Yellowstone)?

[Peachy]

We won't drill ANWR because (drumroll please):
1. Global warming has already shortened the season in which the tundra is frozen solid for travel and within a few more years ANWR will be unreachable by heavy vehicle.
2. We won't drill before TSHTF and once it does ANWR will be but a distant memory lost after only a generation or two.

[nero]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e won't drill ANWR because (drumroll please):
1. Global warming has already shortened the season in which the tundra is frozen solid for travel and within a few more years ANWR will be unreachable by heavy vehicle.
2. We won't drill before TSHTF and once it does ANWR will be but a distant memory lost after only a generation or two.