Serial-worrier wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s food supplies stop, imagine the horror of millions of people dying agonizingly in the mega-cities.
PeakOil is You
Cities completely abandoned in the post-oil world?
Re: Cities completely abandoned in the post-oil world?
by glaucus » Tue 12 Jun 2012, 17:25:31
I'd rather not. I'm not sure this is likely anyway, barring an overnight crash scenario. But as I mentioned previously, third world megacities are precarious places. Resource limits in general and food supply issues specifically will manifest there before anywhere else.
"Today's city is the most vulnerable social structure ever conceived by man." -Martin Oppenheimer
Check out my urban planning blog:
https://planningdown.wordpress.com
Check out my urban planning blog:
https://planningdown.wordpress.com
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Re: Cities completely abandoned in the post-oil world?
by kublikhan » Tue 12 Jun 2012, 17:30:12
I predict the opposite: cities will continue to exist and function in a post oil world. Cities were around for a long time before oil and will be around for a long time after. They are centers of commerce, residence, and social functions. The urge to flee to the boonies is the old "fight or flight" response and speaks more about our fears than rational thought. Even in times of dire strife, like the collapse of the Soviet Union or the Great Depression, the cities fared better than those living in rural settings. People migrated to the cities looking for food, jobs, and shelter. City populations increased during these hard times, not decreased. No man is an island. No matter how well prepared you think you are for times of dire strife, you will still need society to function.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s I was thinking about this topic, I was struck by the following realization, counter-intuitive but supported by evidence. The limiting factor in the survival, on both the level of the individual and the community, was not the ability to produce your own products and not even the available resources or lack of them. It was transport and infrastructure - the ability to trade, deliver your surplus elsewhere and from there get other things you need.
This is why rural areas and small towns in Russia took a very hard hit in the 90s, and may never fully recover, as some say. One would think it should be exactly the opposite - people would have gone into the remote villages and live off the land and the woods. However, even in the most self-sufficient household one cannot produce or make everything needed. And being in a remote location makes it difficult to deliver surplus to others in a timely manner for trading or exchange, especially with the roads being as atrocious as they were.
The lesson from this is that the desire to hide out in the boondocks results from a 'fight or flight' emotional response to a stressful situation, and in the long run is counterproductive. Instead, a survivor should network within the community, stay just close enough to major traffic routes, keep the transportation lines open and have some kind of vehicle at one's disposal. A truck is good if there is reliable fuel available (the rising prices of oil should be considered). A horse too, if things get that bad. It is best to be by a river or another body of water, it is very good to live by the bridge, ferry or a dock on one's property, and a boat.
One thing that is important to mention is that organized crime moved in very quickly to control all the trade and businesses. Mafia and gangs banded together based on location and/or ethnicity. Therefore, one shouldn't be afraid so much of people with guns who come to take your food away, but rather of people who come with guns and demand a regularly paid share of your profit or surplus.
The value of education didn't decrease. On the contrary, it increased, especially for certain professions. In truth the most valuable major in my college ended up being geology and geophysics. It was the easiest to get into but the graduates were snapped up by Russian and foreign corporations in the booming oil and related industry, to do the exploration of natural resources, and have on average done exceedingly well.
USSR Collapse - Russia in the 1990s$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s I was thinking about this topic, I was struck by the following realization, counter-intuitive but supported by evidence. The limiting factor in the survival, on both the level of the individual and the community, was not the ability to produce your own products and not even the available resources or lack of them. It was transport and infrastructure - the ability to trade, deliver your surplus elsewhere and from there get other things you need.
This is why rural areas and small towns in Russia took a very hard hit in the 90s, and may never fully recover, as some say. One would think it should be exactly the opposite - people would have gone into the remote villages and live off the land and the woods. However, even in the most self-sufficient household one cannot produce or make everything needed. And being in a remote location makes it difficult to deliver surplus to others in a timely manner for trading or exchange, especially with the roads being as atrocious as they were.
The lesson from this is that the desire to hide out in the boondocks results from a 'fight or flight' emotional response to a stressful situation, and in the long run is counterproductive. Instead, a survivor should network within the community, stay just close enough to major traffic routes, keep the transportation lines open and have some kind of vehicle at one's disposal. A truck is good if there is reliable fuel available (the rising prices of oil should be considered). A horse too, if things get that bad. It is best to be by a river or another body of water, it is very good to live by the bridge, ferry or a dock on one's property, and a boat.
One thing that is important to mention is that organized crime moved in very quickly to control all the trade and businesses. Mafia and gangs banded together based on location and/or ethnicity. Therefore, one shouldn't be afraid so much of people with guns who come to take your food away, but rather of people who come with guns and demand a regularly paid share of your profit or surplus.
The value of education didn't decrease. On the contrary, it increased, especially for certain professions. In truth the most valuable major in my college ended up being geology and geophysics. It was the easiest to get into but the graduates were snapped up by Russian and foreign corporations in the booming oil and related industry, to do the exploration of natural resources, and have on average done exceedingly well.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s the Depression deepened, cities attracted beaten people from all parts of the country. Farmers whose livelihoods had been foreclosed packed up their families and moved into the cities. Hoboes and other itinerants sought shelter in cities during harsh winters. City dwellers themselves were not immune to the rails of the nation. Thousands of unemployed residents who could not pay their rent or mortgages were evicted into the world of public assistance and bread lines.
At President Hoover's beckoning, charities had stepped in to help ease the burden on municipal resources. Hoover was a firm believer in volunteerism. Feeling that each community was responsible for aiding people in distress, Hoover created programs that bolstered morale and encouraged charity.
In 1930 the International Apple Shippers Association was faced with an oversupply of fruit and came up with a unique solution to a national problem: to clear out their warehouses and give the unemployed a way to make a little money, they sold apples on credit. The ploy worked. Months later a shivering apple vendor could be found standing over a fruit crate on the corner of every major American city. By the end of November there were six thousand people selling apples in New York alone. The trend spread, and suddenly there were pitchmen of all persuasions standing alongside the apple sellers, handling everything from patent medicines to gaudy neckties.
Many people planted subsistence gardens in vacant lots or rooftops to feed themselves when grocery money was really scarce. Twenty thousand of these gardens were reported in Gary, Indiana, alone.
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: Cities completely abandoned in the post-oil world?
by cephalotus » Tue 12 Jun 2012, 18:28:20
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', 'C')uba is often cited as a successful post oil society. It ususally has and is currently ranked higher in life expectancy and healthcare than the United States.
Yeah, Cuba, the good old peak oil porno....
Cuba consumes 176,600 barrel oil per day for 11,07 Million people.
That's around 6 barrel oil per capita at a GDP of 9,900US$ per capita (=1,700US$ GDP for one barrel oil consumed)
For comparison Germany consumes 2,495,000 barrel oil per day for 81,3 million people
That's around 11 barrel oil per capita at a GDP of 37,900US$ per capita (=3,400 US$ GDP / barrel oil)
Ok, Cuba consumes less oil / capita than Germany , but we still really waste that stuff and we still heat lots of buildings with oil. If you compare the German and the Cuban industry and the car culture and the climate I fail to understand, why Cuba is always used as an example for a country that managed peak oil. Imho they are wasting HUGE amounts of oil, compared to what they do with it.
Others might disagree, but in my opinion Cuba has not mastered peak oil, they are not even on a way to become less dependent on (cheap) oil. In relation to peak oil problems that "growing you own food" thing is absolute nonsense in my opinion.
Maybe countries with an oil consumption of less than 1 barrel per capita (and year) do exist and a GDP of at least 5.000US$ per capita, that could be called examples for an oil efficient country?
Source for all data: https://www.cia.gov/library/publication ... index.html
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...it depends.
The same could happen within the grand ole' US and I'm damn near certain that it would happen on a worldwide basis thanks to globalization. Of course, should savings and wealth be totally wiped out by hyperinflation, all bets are off. 
