by soilmaker » Wed 06 Jun 2012, 09:49:54
I recommend the book "The Upside of Down..Catastrophe, Creativity and the Renewal of Civilization" by Thomas Homer-Dixon (2006). I especially liked what he had to say about the breakdown of complex systems.
p.23 " ...some complex systems adapt to their changing environment by going through a four-stage cycle of growth, breakdown, reorganization, and renewal....while breakdown is essential to long-run adaptation and renewal, it must not be too severe. In other words, breakdown must be constrained....for [renewal] to happen.
Of course, even constrained breakdown...can hurt many people, sometimes very badly. But it can also shatter the forces standing in the way of change and the deeply entrenched and too-comfortable mindsets that keep people from seeing exciting possibilities for renewal.
(p.24) But beware. Breakdown can also usher in a period of great danger --- of turmoil, confusion, frustration, and anger---a period when demagogues can rush into the breach and turn one group against another with ferocious violence.
'In times of upheaval', wrote the great Irish poet W. B Yeats in "The Second Coming", 'the best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity.' When social breakdown happens, as it will in coming years, we can be sure that the worst will be full of passionate intensity. We must be equally sure that the best will have the conviction, the knowledge, and the resources to prevail."
Let's hope so.