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THE 2012 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

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Re: THE 2012 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby TheAntiDoomer » Thu 24 May 2012, 15:41:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheAntiDoomer', 'I') thought we got down to 89 something? or does the close only count?


Take your beating like a man. :-D

We still have a half year for more drama.


LOL Cog. IN all seriousness how do we determine the low price? at 3pm close? even if that is the case the new low should make us very close ;-)

UPDATE: According to this the May 23 close was 89.30! Bend over COG here i come! :lol: :? :shock:

http://www.livecharts.co.uk/futures_com ... orical.php

This puts me around 13.90 and Cog aroud 14.09!!! All Hail TheAntiDoomer and his infinite wisdom!

Unless we are going by Close and not Low, then its 89.90 and Cog may have me by a hair, but I should be close enough to surpass him at 100.3 :D
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Re: THE 2012 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Thu 24 May 2012, 18:59:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheAntiDoomer', 'I')N all seriousness how do we determine the low price? at 3pm close? even if that is the case the new low should make us very close ;-)


The very first post of this thread gives the clearly stated reference: The EIA. Click on that link. Go to the "Data 1" page (click the tab at the bottom) of the Excel workbook and you will see the WTI Contract price in column B. The closing price is the last entry in column B. The EIA does not report intraday low prices. You do have to have the Excel app or an app that can open an Excel file.

The reference link you see at the top of each scorecard is the html address where you can download the Excel file. The scorecard is a "snapshot" of my modified Excel workbook using the EIA data (copied and pasted.) The reference link in each posted scorecard doesn't work in a jpg file of course.

See http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_fut_s1_d.htm
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Re: THE 2012 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Beery1 » Fri 25 May 2012, 09:27:57

Dammit! How can I have gone down a point when the high is still the same and I've got closer to the low than I was last time? The stupid close is messing me up. I think the close shouldn't even count until the final analysis - it is, after all, the final close. The close price before then is irrelevant.
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Re: THE 2012 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby dolanbaker » Fri 25 May 2012, 14:46:03

Looks like I've called the low correctly, just need the ME to go silly to hit the high, followed by some sort of climbdown by one side or suchlike.
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Re: THE 2012 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Fri 25 May 2012, 19:30:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Beery1', 'D')ammit! How can I have gone down a point when the high is still the same and I've got closer to the low than I was last time? The stupid close is messing me up. I think the close shouldn't even count until the final analysis - it is, after all, the final close. The close price before then is irrelevant.


Three things:
1. We're using the same rules as pup55 laid down years ago.
2. If you'd like to post your own spreadsheet without the closing price, go for it.
3. The fluctuating closing price is what makes the "race" interesting. After all, changes in the high and low price happen less frequently.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: THE 2012 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Beery1 » Sat 26 May 2012, 23:33:50

I wasn't complaining. Just ranting out loud.

I like to rant. My wife sees it as a flaw. She's crazy. My ranting is just proof that I have lovable anger issues.
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Re: THE 2012 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Sun 27 May 2012, 15:26:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Beery1', 'I') wasn't complaining. Just ranting out loud.

I like to rant. My wife sees it as a flaw. She's crazy. My ranting is just proof that I have lovable anger issues.


lol @ Beery1

Actually, I thought of posting a "What If" spreadsheet that would only sort the players by high and low prices.

jdmartin, pup55, and Pops are good with Excel, and referees to check the math is a good thing. If anyone wants a copy of my Excel workbook, please send me an IM. I'd have to send you the Excel file as an email attachment.
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Re: THE 2012 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby careinke » Wed 30 May 2012, 18:16:26

Should be some changes this week. Sorry Cob.
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Re: THE 2012 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Wed 30 May 2012, 19:02:46

Looks like Obiwan will take first place this week.

The EIA doesn't release their report till tomorrow because of the Memorial Day holiday.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: THE 2012 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 31 May 2012, 06:40:03

I need the price of oil to climb back over $100. Help me Obi-Wan Kenobi, you're my only hope.
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Re: THE 2012 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Cog » Thu 31 May 2012, 11:03:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'I') need the price of oil to climb back over $100. Help me Obi-Wan Kenobi, you're my only hope.


You will sit back in second place behind me and like it.
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Re: THE 2012 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Thu 31 May 2012, 16:23:17

The latest scorecard:

Image

A new low was reported today by the EIA. The closing price was the same. We have a new leader, at least for a little while...
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: THE 2012 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Thu 31 May 2012, 17:14:24

Dropping like a rock this morning, the race is now officially ON!

(Whatever happens Cog must have broken the record for longest time in the lead? Up there with The Dude before last year's dip & spike.)?
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Re: THE 2012 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Thu 31 May 2012, 21:10:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'D')ropping like a rock this morning, the race is now officially ON!

(Whatever happens Cog must have broken the record for longest time in the lead? Up there with The Dude before last year's dip & spike.)?


This year, the leaders for the longest time have been:
Kublikhan, 34%
Repent, 33%
Cog, 29%
Daniel_Plainview, 3%
Obiwan, 2%

I think OilFinder2 held the #1 spot the most in the 2010 Oil Price Challenge. pup55 has those data. In 2011, TheDude held the #1 spot 31% of the time.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: THE 2012 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Revi » Fri 01 Jun 2012, 09:31:39

For some strange reason I have moved up a few places. My guess, er prediction is nowhere near what we're at and getting further from where oil is at.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: THE 2012 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby careinke » Fri 01 Jun 2012, 12:23:45

Darn the price just dropped below $84 (my low guess).

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fu ... electronic

Maybe the close will be above $84.00.

Looks like Oil and gold have just gone their separate ways.

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

I need more popcorn!
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Re: THE 2012 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Beery1 » Fri 01 Jun 2012, 12:56:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', 'M')aybe the close will be above $84.00.


Yeah, I hope so too.

To be honest though, right now it's looking like Greece is putting a damper on prices for the near future. If I were to make a guess right now, I'd say oil prices are likely to stay under $100 this year.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') need more popcorn!


Just how I feel, LOL.
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Re: THE 2012 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 01 Jun 2012, 18:18:08

Just passed my low estimate so I'm looking pretty good there. At this price a lot of expensive oil will get shut in. Plenty of time to get back up to my close guess and maybe even to my high.
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Re: THE 2012 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sat 02 Jun 2012, 06:49:24

It looks like the real losers are going to be those who guessed that the price would remain stable in a small price band.
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Re: THE 2012 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Sat 02 Jun 2012, 08:25:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', 'I')t looks like the real losers are going to be those who guessed that the price would remain stable in a small price band.


Recent history shows us that volatile prices seem to be the norm, at least in the last five years or so. That is, the range has been over $20 each year since 2004:

Image


And keep in mind that the 2012 column is incomplete (of course.) I'll update it again at the end of the next quarter.
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