[Revi]

This thread is devoted to the Titanic analogy, since we are going to be at the 100th anniversary of the sinking next week. It was supposedly unsinkable and it was a problem even before it sailed, since in sea trials it managed to almost sink a couple of British naval vessels. It was a marvel of engineering and it failed. It has been used as an analogy for the peak oil crisis for many years. Any ideas?

[The Practician]

You forgot to mention the deck chairs. Nobody talks about the titanic and peak oil without bringing those up. Are you new or something?

[Pops]

Good Revi.

One of the problems with the analogy on the macro level (or it's attraction, depending on your perspective) is that the iceberg ripped a hole so big the Titanic took on water and sank right out of sight very quickly. That demonstrably isn't going to happen with PO, if it was $150/bbl would have continued right up to $500 and beyond.

I mean it could, if PO leads to GTNW. Or if we are able to force the plateau farther and farther (even at greater negative EROI that normal) until the peak and slope become a cliff. But even in that case we won't crash to no oil over-night or over-decade either I guess. We'll just see a progression of vulnerable secors fail.

More than likely we'll keep trying substitutes and "extenders" while depleting reserves apace 'till we can't. Then we'll simply use less and less, no iceberg, no overnight dieoff, just lots of pain.


But the part about rearranging deck chairs is certainly apropos as it applies to the initial response we are seeing to expensive oil. Surveys say people start doing something about their usage at $4/gallon. Maybe buy a hybrid(!), maybe buy some weatherstrip or a bike. That is rearranging. What will they do do at $8? or $16? Or when they inevitably get their pink slip and the 40 mile commute is irrelevant?

The rearranging is thinking there is a fix on sale down at the Quiky Mart.

[dinopello]

The Hubris !

[Newfie]

I dunno Pops.

Think of the iceberg as a Black Swan. The Captain was in denial about his vulnerability, as we are now, charging ahead into the dark, head up keester.

[Pops]

I try to never say never Newfie, I'm wrong enough when I say 'sometimes' :^D

The Tipping Points" paper a year or two ago laid out a scenario where the "market" gets it in its head that PO means the end of growth, which means the end of credit payments, which means the end of business, and everything comes to a stop virtually overnight. I could see that happening maybe. Probably along with the WWIII scenario that's about the only Overnight Iceberg I can see.

The problem with that scenario or any uber-doomerish plot (aside from Global Nuke Rain) comes the virtual next day when people wake up and need to find something to do with themselves and we basically start over.


Even the survivors of the Titanic ended up where they were going eventually, it just wasn't in the manner they'd envisioned.

[Revi]

My favorite Titanic analogy is the fact that they locked the poor under the decks while the first class passengers got into the lifeboats. Meanwhile the middle class passengers listened to the band play on while the ship tilted into the icy north Atlantic. Another thing was that there was a representative from the White Star Line who delayed the distress call because he didn't want to alarm the passengers.

We are beginning to see the decks tilting and it's only a matter of time before everyone knows what's going on.

[The Practician]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'M')y favorite Titanic analogy is the fact that they locked the poor under the decks while the first class passengers got into the lifeboats. Meanwhile the middle class passengers listened to the band play on while the ship tilted into the icy north Atlantic.

[Roryrules]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'M')y favorite Titanic analogy is the fact that they locked the poor under the decks while the first class passengers got into the lifeboats.

[evilgenius]

I think this is an interesting analogy. Right away it makes me think more about what a sudden nuclear war would do to the world than what a rapidly escalating PO resource/economic conflagration would do. There is another option to consider, however. That option is what happens if the US fails to maintain its hegemony. Suppose after going into the next Middle Eastern country the US military loses the ensuing conflict? It's what this whole brouhaha over Iran is about when you get right down to it, avoiding that possibility. You see, the US can't invade an Iran that possesses nuclear weapons. They can invade, at huge cost, successfully an Iran that doesn't. If you take the long view that there will be no fossil fuel replacement and that in response it is of utmost strategic importance to stay on top until the oil runs out, then you take the path we seem to be on (all the bad news doesn't matter as long as we maintain hegemony). Of course, following on from this is again the threat of nuclear war, which probably is more of a danger going forward than most people think. It is a threat precisely for the same reasons that the pre-WWI political situation was a threat to world peace and stability, it cloaks the agreements and alliances which given the right circumstances could bring about the unthinkable. If the US is on a maintain hegemony at all costs footing the likelihood of running into a snarl of agreements which would compel a country like Russia or China to act against it becomes greater, moreso because the US would willfully refuse to either acknowledge or work with them. Take the wrangle over the missile defense shield as a for instance and go forward from there. It isn't too hard to see how it could get out of hand without publicly rising to any level of concern.

[Keith_McClary]

Titanic is a good analogy for Katrina or Fukushima. These are failures in risk management for rare but statistically predictable events. PO is not that type of risk.

I again plug my friend Roy's entertaining presentation:
"The RMS Titanic and its Times: When Accountants Ruled the Waves"
This a brief version on one webpage with a few images (links to his full presentation at bottom).

[Newfie]

Pops,

I think the point is that the iceberg represents things you either can nor or will not see. Thus they are Black Swans. Or, critical nodes if you like. James
Burke called it the "Trigger Effect."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OcSxL8GUn-g

(An oldies but goodie!)

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'P')ops,

I think the point is that the iceberg represents things you either can nor or will not see.

[Revi]

Very interesting background about the Titanic. So the mania for speed was one of the culprits. Could there be an analogy made between the Titanic and the craze for speed nowadays?

[LittleWilly]

My favorite part is their confidence in the safety systems, just like today. A lot of people argue about what goes into the formula for disaster, but two items are pretty much agreed on. The more complex a system is, and the more interconnected a system is, the greater the chance for a catastrophic disaster. Safety systems help avoid problems, but because all safety sytems increase the complexity and the interconnectiveness, they actually increase the chance for a catastrophy. (they also lower the frequency and consequences of minor emergencies, so people get more complacent). Less safe ships stopped for the night, and were there to pull out the survivors.

[Newfie]

Two authors come to mind.

Laurence Gonzalez: Deep Survival and Everyday Survival

And

Henry Petroski: To Engineer is Human
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Petroski

[Revi]

The Titanic was travelling on a very complex ocean, much as we are navigating on a very complex planet. Here's Ambrose Bierce's take on it:

“Ocean: A body of water occupying about two-thirds of a world made for man - who has no gills.”
Ambrose Bierce

From The Devil's Dictionary

[AgentR11]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '�')��Ocean: A body of water occupying about two-thirds of a world made for man - who has no gills.”
Ambrose Bierce

[JohnRM]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'G')ood Revi.

One of the problems with the analogy on the macro level (or it's attraction, depending on your perspective) is that the iceberg ripped a hole so big the Titanic took on water and sank right out of sight very quickly. That demonstrably isn't going to happen with PO, if it was $150/bbl would have continued right up to $500 and beyond.

I mean it could, if PO leads to GTNW. Or if we are able to force the plateau farther and farther (even at greater negative EROI that normal) until the peak and slope become a cliff. But even in that case we won't crash to no oil over-night or over-decade either I guess. We'll just see a progression of vulnerable secors fail.

More than likely we'll keep trying substitutes and "extenders" while depleting reserves apace 'till we can't. Then we'll simply use less and less, no iceberg, no overnight dieoff, just lots of pain.


But the part about rearranging deck chairs is certainly apropos as it applies to the initial response we are seeing to expensive oil. Surveys say people start doing something about their usage at $4/gallon. Maybe buy a hybrid(!), maybe buy some weatherstrip or a bike. That is rearranging. What will they do do at $8? or $16? Or when they inevitably get their pink slip and the 40 mile commute is irrelevant?

The rearranging is thinking there is a fix on sale down at the Quiky Mart.