[babystrangeloop]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'W')hile the wheels have decidedly not come off the tracks,

[AirlinePilot]

I think this depends a lot on your definition of the wheels coming off the tracks. So far we have pretty much held on to BAU, at least here in the states. I would however agree that we are boiling frogs at this point.

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'C')haracterizing total liquids production as "Soaring" given recent price trends is an obfuscation and a manipulation of the facts.

[AirlinePilot]

If that trend in the last two to three years continues into the next few, i'd say you might be justified in using the term "soaring". Right now not so much. The historic chart of oil production is filled with small peaks and valleys. Lets wait and see what happens over the next two years or so.

If you pull out to see the much longer history of production, that "soaring" level doesn't quite look so impressive. I'd say you are intentionally manipulating this by constantly showing only the last 10 years or so of what is a MUCH bigger chart.

[AgentR11]

Set your y range to start at zero, and pull the starting year back to when we began to really pump oil, and that little bumpy thing at 2004+ will look very, very, flat.

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'I')f you pull out to see the much longer history of production, that "soaring" level doesn't quite look so impressive. I'd say you are intentionally manipulating this by constantly showing only the last 10 years or so of what is a MUCH bigger chart.

[meemoe_uk]

Well, I'd only describe it as 'soaring' now because I know whats going to happen to it. See that 8Mbpd increase from 2002 to 2005? An increase similar to that is whats going to happen in the next few years. 2010 to 2012 is the foot of the mountain.

[meemoe_uk]

The 2012 February IEA oil market report is published.
http://omrpublic.iea.org/omrarchive/10feb12full.pdf

Can any peaker here guessed what it reported?

Can you?

page 58

January 2012 has just set a new all time monthly record for liquid fuels ( oil ) production, 90.23Mbpd average, which beats the previous all time record set in December 2011 - 90.07Mbpd.

The trend is expected to be about 0.1Mbpd increase per month ( 1.2Mbpd increase per year ) for the next few years, till about 2020.

[Serial_Worrier]

So much for the idea that "peak oil" occurred in 2005.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', 'T')he 2012 February IEA oil market report is published.
http://omrpublic.iea.org/omrarchive/10feb12full.pdf

Can any peaker here guessed what it reported?

Can you?

page 58

January 2012 has just set a new all time monthly record for liquid fuels ( oil ) production, 90.23Mbpd average, which beats the previous all time record set in December 2011 - 90.07Mbpd.

The trend is expected to be about 0.1Mbpd increase per month ( 1.2Mbpd increase per year ) for the next few years, till about 2020.

[AgentR11]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Serial_Worrier', 'S')o much for the idea that "peak oil" occurred in 2005.

[AirlinePilot]

Once again we learn who cannot seem to fathom the difference between that which is Oil and that which is Not Oil. Confusing Total liquids with Oil production is a complete obfuscation of the reality.

It is quite an important point to grasp. The Not Oil stuff probably wont be able to ward off the decline in the Oil stuff for very long.

Why is this so hard to understand? It begs the question Why the agencies moved to reporting "Total liquids" rather than just plain old Crude?

[meemoe_uk]

Once again we see the POisNow religion grasping at absurd excuses, like

a)
trying to dismiss IEA figures as irrelevant because they include bio and NGLs.
If this distinction was going to save the POisNow position, wouldn't you expect peakers to be falling over themselves to subtract NGLs and bio from the IEA figures to give an adjusted oil output?
They don't. They won't.
Why not? What are they afraid of?

b)
trying to dismiss oil because you didn't dig it up right. yep. That's sums up the desperation of the POisNow religion. Unless you dig it up like they did 40 years ago with technology from 40 years ago, peakers allude that it doesn't count.

c) They ignore that most of the new flood of oil is conventional crude coming from the 2001 middle east oil bonanza.

>Why is this so hard to understand? It begs the question Why the agencies moved to reporting "Total liquids" rather than just plain old Crude?
Because in its most important respect, its oil. Extracting combustibles from tar and bitumen is OK, but extracting them from any other medium magically invalidates them? Who decided that? God?
It's an absurdity that peakers utterly depend on.

[Kristen]

I remember when I joined this forum in inn 2005 and people were predicting electricity outages by now, which have yet to occur. The truth is no one has a crystal ball on these sorts of conundrums. Is the price of oil so high because it is priced in dollars and the fed has to print trillions of dollars to support CDC's and CDO's causing inflation? Hell if i know, but as a society America has certainly peaked in standard of living. 2/3's are living paycheck to paycheck and we have stubborn unemployment and a disturbing jobs field. The underlying point on this forum has been carrying capacity. Even if we reach 200 mbd the result will still be the same; more and more misery. How can one be happy when a new "need" is always being created via manipulation (and behavioral psychology)? Corporations are people and SOPA is being implemented. Poverty is a crime and if you're homeless you have no rights to be anywhere.

What I'm saying is I understand those who want Peak Oil only insofar that it gives all this suffering a retribution of sorts. If not then let the evilness continue under the virtue of a benign God,

[AgentR11]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kristen', 'I') remember when I joined this forum in inn 2005 and people were predicting electricity outages by now, which have yet to occur.

[ralfy]

http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2012/02/j ... upply.html

Looks like a dramatic increase when one looks at the second chart, but in the fourth chart, we see an increase from 70 to 85 mb/d from 1995 to a bit after 2005, but from 2005 to the end of 2012 an increase from 85 to a max. of 87 mb/d. If we were to follow the previous increase, then we should see 100 mb/d by 2015. For this to happen, we need to add at almost 5 mb/d each year, or at a rate two or three times better than what we used to do in the past.

[copious.abundance]

I guess meemoe_uk forgot about this thread.

Anyway here's the chart, courtesty of Stuart Staniford.


LINK

[AgentR11]

Hmmm, maybe the oily stuff will last until we don't need it.
I'm cool with that.

[meemoe_uk]

Oh yeah. Perhaps the mods could merge these 2 threads.

[Leutnant]

Looking at Oilfinder's chart, isn't it reasonable to suspect that this new high and the growth in production the last two years is mainly the result of restarting of projects that were put on hold after the crisis in 2008?

If so then the production-growth since the summer of 2010 is only a temporary anomaly.