[SeaGypsy]

Interesting psychology game going on here where the real world price is solidly $20+ more than the nominated index everyone traditionally watches. WTI has lost it's worth as a central index, that is plain to see, so why else is it still being used except for the psychological advantage created as a quirk of a particularly landlocked field area in an importing country. The gap between psychological spin and real world costs will soon knock the cream off the markets again as in 08, even if WTI stays in a steady inflationary band.

[ColossalContrarian]

Do people make money trading off the value of Brent or Tapis vs. using WTI?

Is it possible that someone is making money off the spreads?

[bratticus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'I')nteresting psychology game going on here

[ralfy]

China's oil imports going up.

[M_B_S]

Forbes predicts 6$ / Gallon and a continuing recession for the US!

http://www.forbes.com/sites/steveodland ... /21/6-gas/

Last year was the highest priced year ever for gasoline and national averages for a gallon of regular are about $3.50 now. Consensus is that the current situation will result in prices over $4 by spring and any of the other possibilities, especially military action in the Middle East, could easily push gasoline prices to $6. Some people believe that rising gasoline prices are a sign that the economy is strengthening but one sure way to knock the economy back into recession is a $6 or even $4 per gallon gasoline price. And this, in turn, could have an impact on this year’s elections. Stay tuned.
***********************************

Yes 2012 is election year in the US and BIG OIL wants to get his candidate into the White House

6$ or more per Gallon is a big shot against Obama who end the oil war in Iraq so the oil fields there could fall to China or more worse to Iran .......and not to EXXON.

6$ per gallon gas is good for Big Oil and there candidate for president.

PEAK OIL!

M_B_S

http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy ... 329485004/

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('M_B_S', 'F')orbes predicts 6$ / Gallon and a continuing recession for the US!

http://www.forbes.com/sites/steveodland ... /21/6-gas/

Last year was the highest priced year ever for gasoline and national averages for a gallon of regular are about $3.50 now. Consensus is that the current situation will result in prices over $4 by spring and any of the other possibilities, especially military action in the Middle East, could easily push gasoline prices to $6. Some people believe that rising gasoline prices are a sign that the economy is strengthening but one sure way to knock the economy back into recession is a $6 or even $4 per gallon gasoline price. And this, in turn, could have an impact on this year’s elections. Stay tuned.
***********************************

Yes 2012 is election year in the US and BIG OIL wants to get his candidate into the White House

6$ or more per Gallon is a big shot against Obama who end the oil war in Iraq so the oil fields there could fall to China or more worse to Iran .......and not to EXXON.

6$ per gallon gas is good for Big Oil and there candidate for president.

PEAK OIL!

M_B_S

http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy ... 329485004/

[M_B_S]

My answer will be short but strong:

http://progressleague.org/index.php/201 ... on-profit/





Thanks for reading the facts.

M_B_S

[Mesuge]

Wasn't R. Paul yesterday on CNN POTUS debate saying something about $6 gallon in some spot of Florida already, or am I imagining-hearing things, perhaps that's just some coastal/island outpost like Keys?

[Milret2]

It is getting very close and I suppose some station somewhere in Florida may have broken that barrier. Five dollar gas easily broken-->http://www.myfoxorlando.com/dpp/news/local/022312-almost-6-a-gallon-for-gas-in-tourism-area

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('M_B_S', '
')

[Cog]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mesuge', 'W')asn't R. Paul yesterday on CNN POTUS debate saying something about $6 gallon in some spot of Florida already, or am I imagining-hearing things, perhaps that's just some coastal/island outpost like Keys?

[eXpat]

Eight Reasons Gas Will Hit $5 This Year
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '1'). Strait of Hormuz

About 20% of the crude oil produced in the world is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran has threatened to shut down shipping traffic through the Strait. At its narrowest, the passage is 30 miles wide, so there is a realistic case that a conflict could close it.
...
2. Iran

Iran contributes to a second problem in terms of global oil supply well beyond that of its ability to interrupt supply. Because of the embargo against the nation due to nuclear weapons violations, the U.S. has pressured large oil importers such as Japan to act to isolate Iran by cutting their imports. This puts Japan in a position in which it has to tap even tighter global supply. Japan apparently has agreed to cut its Iranian crude imports by 20%. But as the world’s third largest oil importer, Japan indeed will have to get its oil somewhere other than Iran — which will put more pressure on current production.

3. Refiners Likely to Raise Prices

Most of the oil refined on the east coast of the U.S. is Brent crude, a type of oil produced from the North Sea. The price of Brent — more than $124 a barrel — is almost $16 higher than the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, the amount most people read about in the media. But because Brent has replaced WTI as the global price benchmark, U.S. refiners set prices for gasoline and other products as if Brent were the only grade of crude used. That allows refiners with access to cheaper WTI to make larger profits.
However, when the prices converge, as happened in the final two months of 2011, WTI refiners lose their edge — and their hefty profits. “Refiners were losing money in November and December. You can only lose money for so long,” John Felmy, chief economist for the American Petroleum Institute, recently said. Many large refineries are owned by public companies that do not have much appetite for posting ongoing losses. To avoid losses, refiners will have to increase gasoline prices.

4. Other Geopolitical Risks

Iran does not present the only geopolitical challenge to oil production. In Nigeria, which is the 14th largest producer of oil in the world, Islamic terrorist group Boko Haram has continued to attack Christian areas of the country. The Nigerian Army has reacted by attacking Islamists. Militants have continued to attack pipelines, apparently in a move to disrupt the government.
...
5. European Union Recession

For now, Greece has been bailed out again. But that does not mean the eurozone is clear of financial troubles. The Greek economy likely would have collapsed under the weight of a sovereign debt default, and the trouble might have spread to weaker economies in the region. Even with the Greek bailout, however, the eurozone is not out of the woods, and nations are still implementing austerity measures.
...
7. It Is Almost Summer

In the U.S., summer vacation driving has historically boosted demand for gasoline. Over the past three or so years, however, that boost has been small, if present at all. In 2011, U.S. traffic volume decreased year-over-year in every month except January and February. But that was last year. So long as the U.S. economy continues to improve, more drivers will be on the road this summer.

8. Supply Risk

In December 2011, OPEC members produced nearly 31 million barrels a day, cutting the cartel’s spare capacity capability from 3.18 million barrels per day to 2.85 million. Saudi Arabia accounts for 2.15 million of those daily barrels of spare capacity.

Whether this data is accurate is arguable. What is not arguable is that starting to pump the spare capacity will take time, which will not be very helpful in the event that the Strait of Hormuz is closed or some other geopolitical risk is realized.

Then there is Russia, the world’s first or second largest producer, depending on which day you look at the data. The OECD is counting on Russian production to make up for some of the short supplies and to grow by 1.4% to 10.72 million barrels a day in 2012. Russia grew its production by 1.2% in 2011. An additional gain of 17% in 2012 could signify that the OECD is hoping that Russian production can grow even more. There is no guarantee that Russia will deliver.

Supply from Canada, the U.S., Australia and Brazil is expected to rise in 2012, though North Sea production is expected to fall. The OECD estimates global demand in 2012 of 90 million barrels a day and global supply essentially equal to projected supply. Nothing about that state of affairs should lead anyone to a conclusion that prices will fall.

[eXpat]

Yeessssssssssssssss, weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!! Party time!!!
U.S. weighs release of oil reserves, world frets about Iran
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '(')Reuters) - The United States is considering a release from its strategic oil reserves, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Friday, acknowledging the harm that supply disruptions from Iran could have on the global economy.

Rising tensions between Iran and the West over its disputed nuclear program have fuelled a rise in oil prices, pushing benchmark Brent crude above $125 a barrel on Friday.
"There is a case for the use of the reserve in some circumstances and we will continue to look at those and evaluate that carefully," Geithner said on CNBC television.

"Obviously Iran can do a lot of damage to the global economy," Geithner said. "We are working very carefully to try to minimize that risk, make sure there are alternative sources of supply from Saudi Arabia and others to help compensate for reduced exports from Iran."

The United Nations' nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, warned on Friday that Iran has sharply stepped up its uranium enrichment drive. The IAEA report was seen as inflaming fears in Israel, which has threatened pre-emptive strikes on Iran's nuclear sites to stop it pursuing Iran an atomic weapons program.

The fear of tightening supplies, exacerbated by a threat from Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz - the main Gulf oil shipping lane - have driven oil prices higher, putting political pressure on President Barack Obama, who is running for re-election in November.

The appetite for a coordinated opening of reserves by the United States and other nations may not be as high as last June, when Western nations agreed to release a total of 60 million barrels of oil in response to supply disruptions from Libya.

Angel Gurria, secretary general of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, said releasing reserves now would not help dampened oil prices.

"These prices are due to a great extent ... because there is a lot of tension, these discussions every day over the Straits of Hormuz and Israel," he said on the sidelines of a Group of 20 meeting in Mexico City.

[Pops]

I like reason #7, Its Almost Summer.
:^D

[Cog]

When supply and demand are in such a tight range, then it implies competition for each and every barrel. That will raise prices. Such is how peak oil works.

[Margarethe]

I hate #7. It's so unfair how gas goes up when I want to drive to the beach or Vegas!

Found this shirt design the other day that made me laugh...

[dolanbaker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Margarethe', 'I') hate #7. It's so unfair how gas goes up when I want to drive to the beach or Vegas!

Found this shirt design the other day that made me laugh...

[sweetyang]

Ah, well you don't seem to have much in the way of choices! Most folks here do have something to say about where to get gas, sorry it won't help you as much! But I'm sure you like where you've made your home and kind of just have to deal with some of the ups and downs of it.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

[M_B_S]

http://www.examiner.com/article/gas-pri ... ratosphere




Labor Day is traditionally one of the busiest motoring holidays of the year. Americans clamber to the nation's highways and byways in record numbers whether gas prices are prohibitive or not.

This year prices are at their peak partly due to Hurricane Isaac, which forced the closure of oil refineries on the Gulf Coast.

The average price of regular gas nationally was $3.83 per gallon last Friday, a 21 cent gain from just one year ago according to AAA.
This Labor Day's cost will beat the previous record of $3.68 set in 2008, the non-profit automobile association said.
********************************

We are on the way......

PEAK OIL!

M_B_S