[SilentRunning]

that we're at the latest peak of the undulating plateau, where the stock market prices and oil prices are at their highest - and are about to nose dive again as the economy once again tanks?

I am seriously thinking of taking most of my money OUT of the stock markets, and moving to a "cash" position. I've recovered nicely from 2008 - and I see us going back down into serious recession from the current quasi-recession mode.

[SGV]

move all your money away from stocks and banks; use some to prep.

[jbrovont]

Market instruments only have value when someone else values them enough to want them, and they have the liquidity to do so. Ask price means nothing if trade volume is tanking, so I'd act accordingly. If things pop off in the middle east, energy will sky-rocket and you can probably kiss any sentiment akin to investor confidence good-bye.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SilentRunning', 't')hat we're at the latest peak of the undulating plateau, where the stock market prices and oil prices are at their highest - and are about to nose dive again as the economy once again tanks?

I am seriously thinking of taking most of my money OUT of the stock markets, and moving to a "cash" position. I've recovered nicely from 2008 - and I see us going back down into serious recession from the current quasi-recession mode.

[JohnRM]

Well, we're definitely in that period of time where, barring global recession, oil prices will never come down substantially, due to the fact that no producer is capable of influencing prices to that end. What I call "would-be" demand is increasing faster than new production can come online. The question is; How much faster is would-be demand outpacing growth in production of oil, both conventional and not? We don't have to wait for peak oil. We're already seeing the limits to production growth stunting global economic growth. It is likely that growth will end and many recessions will come to pass before actual peak occurs. Increasing production capacity in Iraq and a few other producers will stave off the most severe consequences for a few more years, but I wouldn't count on smooth sailing, until then, especially if, as another poster said, instability spreads throughout the middle east.

[rangerone314]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SilentRunning', ' ')I am seriously thinking of taking most of my money OUT of the stock markets, and moving to a "cash" position. I've recovered nicely from 2008 - and I see us going back down into serious recession from the current quasi-recession mode.

[Mesuge]

Isn't it interesting how from the rear view mirror the surfing on the bubbles of the past decades finally makes sense. He who had the "insight" to jump on the bandwagon first and changed horses at the peak made fortunes or rather preserved his fortunes and multiplied it into the next round, rinse and repeat.

That's not to say there are no newcommers or loosers among TPTB,
but the core cadre knows their game very well.

[PrestonSturges]

Absolutley. I've been out for 6 months. Whenever you hear the phrase "record high," the smart money has already placed their sell orders. They never show the e-trade baby on a bad day.

[AgentR11]

More interesting question, after the next market... correction... what's likely to look good. If energy demand gets hosed by price spike/depression; then producers could very well end up selling oil below their cost, or at best trying to hold on to inventory/reserves (works poorly at scale). Doesn't matter if oil is still an "expensive" $80, if it costs you $80 to produce, it makes for unhappy and unpaid shareholders.

Financials... if the next reset breaks the dollar reserve status, and the Euro remains in trouble; how do you even go about making long range actuarial decisions when you have no idea what your currencies will be valued at 10 years out.

Tech? (gack) Ag? If climate remains with modest change, and population is still soaring, profits could be quite good; but it depends on world trade, which with broken reserve currencies, ought to give anyone the willies.

Last time was obvious, Financials got punched down way low, the government could really only choose between declaring us all bankrupt and in anarchy, or prevent the banks from failing, guaranteeing that in any condition where your cash was worth anything, the valuation of the various non-criminal financials would return to reasonably decent levels.

This time, the bubble is the currency itself, how does a currency bubble pop, and what does it improperly smush on the way down.

[Arthur75]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnRM', ' ')We don't have to wait for peak oil. We're already seeing the limits to production growth stunting global economic growth. It is likely that growth will end and many recessions will come to pass before actual peak occurs. Increasing production capacity in Iraq and a few other producers will stave off the most severe consequences for a few more years, but I wouldn't count on smooth sailing, until then, especially if, as another poster said, instability spreads throughout the middle east.

[Sys1]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')hat we're at the latest peak of the undulating plateau, where the stock market prices and oil prices are at their highest - and are about to nose dive again as the economy once again tanks?

I am seriously thinking of taking most of my money OUT of the stock markets, and moving to a "cash" position. I've recovered nicely from 2008 - and I see us going back down into serious recession from the current quasi-recession mode.

[Mesuge]

_
Oh Olduvai, oh Olduvai,
yellow river streams and smoked grass,
just seing those 4horses running by.

Today I feel no more mega corny,
nice little horsie, yuck, come on !?
don't bite me in the da ..
_

This is an excerpt from larger epic Poem called
The last follies of shaved humanoids
prepared for relase by Simon & Shuster on 31.12.2012, advanced copies for review available at your local Mayan cemetery ltd. info desk.

[rangerone314]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', 'M')ore interesting question, after the next market... correction... what's likely to look good. If energy demand gets hosed by price spike/depression; then producers could very well end up selling oil below their cost, or at best trying to hold on to inventory/reserves (works poorly at scale). Doesn't matter if oil is still an "expensive" $80, if it costs you $80 to produce, it makes for unhappy and unpaid shareholders. ...
This time, the bubble is the currency itself, how does a currency bubble pop, and what does it improperly smush on the way down.

[AgentR11]

I was thinking more sector specific thought, not index funds (however aggressive).

[careinke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mesuge', '_')
Oh Olduvai, oh Olduvai,
yellow river streams and smoked grass,
just seing those 4horses running by.

Today I feel no more mega corny,
nice little horsie, yuck, come on !?
don't bite me in the da ..
_

This is an excerpt from larger epic Poem called
The last follies of shaved humanoids
prepared for relase by Simon & Shuster on 31.12.2012, advanced copies for review available at your local Mayan cemetery ltd. info desk.

[JohnRM]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Arthur75', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnRM', ' ')We don't have to wait for peak oil. We're already seeing the limits to production growth stunting global economic growth. It is likely that growth will end and many recessions will come to pass before actual peak occurs. Increasing production capacity in Iraq and a few other producers will stave off the most severe consequences for a few more years, but I wouldn't count on smooth sailing, until then, especially if, as another poster said, instability spreads throughout the middle east.

[eastbay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrestonSturges', 'A')bsolutley. I've been out for 6 months. Whenever you hear the phrase "record high," the smart money has already placed their sell orders. They never show the e-trade baby on a bad day.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrestonSturges', 'A')bsolutley. I've been out for 6 months. Whenever you hear the phrase "record high," the smart money has already placed their sell orders. They never show the e-trade baby on a bad day.

[SilentRunning]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')hat we're at the latest peak of the undulating plateau, where the stock market prices and oil prices are at their highest - and are about to nose dive again as the economy once again tanks?

I am seriously thinking of taking most of my money OUT of the stock markets, and moving to a "cash" position. I've recovered nicely from 2008 - and I see us going back down into serious recession from the current quasi-recession mode.

[Mesuge]

Silent> ~25hectares per relatively compact family using some perma- tricks could be doable, but certainly wouldn't be enough in modern fossil agriculture setup, which ends anyway, just saying for rough estimation/comparison.