[Anvil]

I seek to dispel the roomers that the USA is going on a great democracy crusade in the mid east. Its more like a great puppet setting up crusade see your history the Shar in Iran, the royal family in Saudi to make it easier for USA to squeeze oil out of the mid east.

The USA great democracy crusade is one of the biggest jokes in history.

[Cloud9]

I don’t do predictions but I see a trend. The water is rising and I am looking for higher ground. Complex systems look stable to the casual observer before they collapse. The tipping point is often unrecognized when it is reached and then the cascade begins. The rapid mood swings in the markets reveal to me a system that is losing its momentum. The wild swings remind me of a spinning top that is about to fall off of its axis.

Peak oil has already been breached. Tar sands, shale and natural gas are different plays. Each will have its moment in the sun and then it too will peak. If our current colonization efforts stave off the collapse by ten years, does that give you hope? Do you think our politicians will be distracted from their pet agendas long enough to do the research necessary to formulate a soft landing for us? If you believe that then you have more faith in these venial self serving scoundrels than I do.

I will continue my projects in an effort to make my family more independent. The rest may do as they will as long as it does not harm me or mine.

[AirlinePilot]

Interesting thoughts Cloud, I tend to agree with your outlook.

With the slow decline of conventional crude comes the necessary attempts to stave off decline. These attempts work because the price of declining conventional crude makes them viable. It should be completely intuitive that the very means with which we are propping up total liquids is screaming Peak at anyone who chooses to listen. The desperation will shortly become palpable as we begin to be unable to supplant core large field decline with fringe resources and double counting total liquids numbers. We arent quite there yet so it looks quite promising and normal. Its a similar analogy to the doubling times for bacteria in the petri dish that Dr. Bartlett likes to use to show humans why waiting to do anything can be catastrophic.

Our Ghost Dance will not work either. Waiting to do anything to manage or cushion the coming decline will easily have consequences which I believe could be considered catastrophic. My hope for mitigation wanes as time marches on. Our awareness appears to be not that much above the colony of bacteria.

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cloud9', '.')..The rapid mood swings in the markets reveal to me a system that is losing its momentum. The wild swings remind me of a spinning top that is about to fall off of its axis.

Peak oil has already been breached. Tar sands, shale and natural gas are different plays. Each will have its moment in the sun and then it too will peak. If our current colonization efforts stave off the collapse by ten years, does that give you hope? Do you think our politicians will be distracted from their pet agendas long enough to do the research necessary to formulate a soft landing for us? If you believe that then you have more faith in these venial self serving scoundrels than I do...

[SeaGypsy]

I concur, apart from the fact that the research was already done, probably whilst most posters here were in their youth or prime work years. A travesty was done over the last 30 years. What we needed to know was known, what happened was Ponzi-ism/ banksterism/ faith in a NWO and endless growth based on economic mumbo jumbo. That's what really happened. The intelligencia and sciences were beat off by money and greed. Meanwhile we squandered what could have been. There may be yet one last chance, but not without a total shakeout of the existing status-quo.

[meemoe_uk]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cloud9', '.')..The rapid mood swings in the markets reveal to me a system that is losing its momentum. The wild swings remind me of a spinning top that is about to fall off of its axis.

[vision-master]

About time for T2........


The four Transition periods (T1, T2, T3, and T4) will roughly span the 2006-2020 era. Each Transition [will] cover, on average, three to four years.

The major palpable difference between the four Ts is their respective gradient of oil output decline -- very small for T1, perceptible for T2, remarkable in T3, and rather steep for T4. In fact, this gradation in decline is a genuine blessing for those having to cope and adapt.

It should be borne in mind that these four Ts are only an overall theoretical structure for future global oil output. The structure is thus so orderly because [it is] predicted with 'Pre-Peak' methods, 'Pre-Peak' assumptions, and [a] 'Pre-Peak' set of rules.

The problem is that we now are in 'Post-Peak' mode, and that none of [the] above applies anymore.

The fact of being in 'Post-Peak' will bring about explosive disruptions we know little about, and which are extremely difficult to foresee. And the shock waves from these explosions rippling throughout the financial and industrial infrastructure could have myriad unintended consequences for which we have no precedent and little experience.

So the only Transition we can see rather clearly (or rather, we hope to be able to comprehend) is T1. It is clear that T1 will witness the tilting of the 'Oil Demand' and 'Oil Supply' scales -- with the former dominant at the onset and the latter commanding toward the close (say, by 2009 or 2010).

But even during that rather benign T1, the unexpected might become the rule and the orderly 'Pre-Peak' rapidly give way to some chaotic 'Post-Peak.'

In any instance, the overall structure of the 'Four Transitions' is a general guideline for the next 14 years or so -- as far as global oil output is concerned. In practice, reality might prove to be worse than these theoretical Transitions; but certainly not better.

The decline of global oil production seems now irreversible. It is bound to occur over a number of transitions, the first of which I have called T1, which has just begun in 2006. T1 has a very benign gradient of decline, and it will take months before one notices it at all. But T2 will be far steeper…My World Oil Production Capacity model has predicted that over the next 14 years, present global production of 81 million barrels per day will decrease by roughly 32%, down to around 55 million barrels per day by the year 2020.

http://energybulletin.net/node/19701

[meemoe_uk]

>About time for...
About time a peaker dumped a random PO hype post on the thread I see.

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', '[')i]>About time for...
About time a peaker dumped a random PO hype post on the thread I see.