[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')roppe agrees: "In order to merely replace lost production from now on, the industry needs to develop around 3.5 million barrels of oil a day. All our research indicates this won't be possible."

[The_Virginian]

well well, it doesn't get more mainstream that "Yahoo news"

Yodle it to your friends....

[Aaron]

indeed...

I expected more on this thread actually.

Or perhaps everyone is just as stunned as I am to have a group as mainstream as Groppe's confirm peak oil.

[Desire]

Peak Oil has already been "mainstream" for a while now, but almost every time it is in fact explicitly mentioned, bizarrely the potentially dire implications just doesn't seem to register as well.

[big_rc]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Desire', 'P')eak Oil has already been "mainstream" for a while now, but almost every time it is in fact explicitly mentioned, bizarrely the potentially dire implications just doesn't seem to register as well.

[meemoe_uk]

> All our research indicates this won't be possible
All of your research was wrong.
Evidenced.

[Cloud9]

Great, prices should be falling any day now.

[meemoe_uk]

No, prices will fall only when the oil industry has completed it's upheaval in the middle east. There's still the full works on Syria to do yet.

1. Destablise the country <- current work
2. Move anglo american troops or sponsored militia in to smash up old syrian establishment
3. Set up new anglo-america backed government
4. Bring in anglo american oil majors.
5. Set up new oil wells.
6. Pump oil.

It'll take years. Probably around 2018-19.
Once that's done prices will fall.
and btw, high oil prices are not an indicator of geological peak oil. History (1970s oil crisis much worse than today, faster oil price rise , but not PO ) , and the peak oil leaders ( ' the demand and supply price gauge is broken ' - Matt Simmons ) have been telling you that for a long time. But you'll never understand.

And oil prices are an off topic deflection from :
"Impact Of Oil Output Fall At Ageing Fields Seen As Acute" in 2004.
History has now shown the supposed depletion has been countered by more oil from more sources.
If you post again please stay on topic and comment on the supposed depletion and the inability of industry to replace 3.5mbpd of the 2004 supply and what history has shown us since that PO hype story of 8 yeras ago.

[eXpat]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', 'N')o, prices will fall only when the oil industry has completed it's upheaval in the middle east. There's still the full works on Syria to do yet.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', '[')i]> All our research indicates this won't be possible
All of your research was wrong.
Evidenced.

[meemoe_uk]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')eah!!! lets invade Syria so we can have back cheap prices what the hell!!!
Nor only delusional but warmonger too boot!!

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')o, prices will fall only when the oil industry has completed it's upheaval in the middle east. There's still the full works on Syria to do yet.

[meemoe_uk]

>Yeah, they were way off. We are getting what, .5mbd over depletion so, 4mbd?
No.
From the graph you can see we are now 6Mbpd above the August 2004 figure. The hype article said there'd be a 3.5Mbpd shortage in just sustaining 2004 output.
So it's a 9.5Mbpd difference. That's a clear fail by any standard.

>Compare that to Yergin for example, who said in 2005 we'd easily be able to produce over 100bbd in 2010.
The difference is, back in 2004, most POer's reckoned peak oil would be about 2004. Such articles as the one in this topic, were representative of the PO community consensus. Yergin was a lone voice, representing only his own wild imagination.

Dredging up old predictions is pretty silly,
It also happens to be the pillar of the modern understanding of reality. The scientific method. And its fitting that the leaders of any religion see it as "pretty silly" .

> it just proves no one knows the future.
Cornies predicted right. No peak oil in 2004. At the very least, no peak till after 2025, although I think geo-peak oil won't happen till late in the 22nd century if we continue to use oil up till geo peak.
I think we'll move off oil onto more powerful energy sources long before a geologically induced oil supply peak occurs. In which case we'll get another artificial peak, like the US production peak of 1970 which wasn't geologically induced. The US oil majors abandoned US oil because they'd found better oil in the middle east.

[meemoe_uk]

>So you work for TPTB, eh (minion class)..........
Anyone in the 1st world does to a degree. Going to supermarket, having an account at a big bank, using gasoline, paying tax, buying consumer items from large corporations are all fundamental ways of supporting TPTB, without which they couldn't exist and couldn't have grown to be TPTB over the decades.
I acknowledge it. Perhaps peakers like to think they are not supporting TPTB. But don't fool yourselves. And don't accuse me of wanting in principle to support TPTB, otherwise I'll accuse you of being a delusional hypocrite, because chances are, you support them as much as I do.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', '[')i]>Yeah, they were way off. We are getting what, .5mbd over depletion so, 4mbd?
No.
From the graph you can see we are now 6Mbpd above the August 2004 figure. The hype article said there'd be a 3.5Mbpd shortage in just sustaining 2004 output.
So it's a 9.5Mbpd difference. That's a clear fail by any standard.

[Mesuge]

The peaksters of early 2000s made an error or rather underestimated the technology progress in gas liquids category, which boosted the all liquids total, and the power of shuffling global demand, i.e. African/Central Asian hunger equals few more months of happy western and chindian motoring. Simply, what we get served as "trade off" will be shorter and bumpier plateau, which we observe right now, plus more horrible Hubbert's downward slope. That's all what is to it in a nutshell..

Otherwise the overall doom predicament and 4horses are very much on the schedule..They don't care about our silly months and few year delays or oil category accounting gimmicks.

[meemoe_uk]

>Ah, I see the problem, you don't understand depletion....
After that you went on an over-elaborate rant. I think you're just trying to obfuscate the simple OP statement and that I've grasped it perfectly well and that you messed up 1st time.
Your 2nd attempt I follow, you manage to say in a lot of words what can be seen from the OP statement. But seems you've just dug a deeper hole for yourself with a 28Mbpd deficit for 2012 according to your interpretation of the 2004 PO_doomer statement.

The bit that interested me was...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat they weren't expecting was how much expensive low-net substitutes like ethanol, gas condensate, heavy and the really expensive stuff like shale and deepwater the economy would try to buy.

[Cloud9]

Mee, it is a bit early to declare winners and losers on this debate. More oil coming on line that staves off collapse does not prevent collapse. We can look at the declines in the United States, the North Sea and Mexico and see a discernable pattern. To jump up and down and claim victory because the world did not implode on a specific date is in my opinion short sited. Yes as prices go up more and more people will be driven out of the oil based economy and yes higher prices will encourage production from unconventional sources, but will it be enough to perpetuate global growth? Or will we lose the periphery and then have the periphery turn and sack the center?

I know the premise is scary, but the evidence seems to be piling up. I hope it is not true. I want to finish my life in the level of comfort to which I have grown accustom. I want an unfettered future for my grand children. Still, I have this nagging thought, in the last days to the Great Plains Indians, an Indian named Wovoca wished so greatly that all he loved would not be swept away by the inevitable that he dreamt a dream. In that wish fulfillment dream he had the great spirit come to him and tell him that if all the Indians did the sacred dance that the White men would be swept from the earth, the buffalo would return and all the lost braves would come back to life. His dream gave rise to the ghost dance which resulted in the massacre at Wounded Knee.

We both believe more than we know. One of us is wrong. If I am wrong then I have needlessly stocked up some beans and rice and honed my gardening skill. If you are wrong then you are dancing the Ghost Dance and all those who you convince to dance with you will suffer a similar fate.

[Serial_Worrier]

With Iraqi oil coming online now, the peak will be extended another decade. Good times ahead.

[ralfy]

Cross-post:

"Oil’s getting harder and harder to come by"

http://peakoil.com/geology/oil%E2%80%99 ... o-come-by/