http://www.aspo-usa.org/conference/2011 ... bowski.pdf
Somehow I missed this from last November and I have not seen anyone else posting about it so here it is.
PeakOil is You
Chris Skrebowski’s ASPO2011 Megaprojects Update
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Chris Skrebowski’s ASPO2011 Megaprojects Update
by Tanada » Sun 29 Jan 2012, 09:39:54
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alfred Tennyson', 'W')e are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Chris Skrebowski’s ASPO2011 Megaprojects Update
by MD » Sun 29 Jan 2012, 11:46:14
A nice graphic, but hard to follow if you're not familiar with the topic.
I suggest studying the very last graph until you grasp its significance.
I suggest studying the very last graph until you grasp its significance.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.
Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Re: Chris Skrebowski’s ASPO2011 Megaprojects Update
by Pops » Sun 29 Jan 2012, 12:53:19
Thanks Tanada
Skrebowski is a smart guy, his chart from Nov 5: "High oil prices now needed to balance supply and demand - Again", looks like mine from September 5
LOL!
Back around 2003 or 4 the Megaprojects Report forecasted trouble starting in 2007 and was what I based my plans on. He seems to be forecasting peak in 2015 now.
Couldn't find the original report, it is no longer on ODAC and I can't find a reprint from Petroleum Review, here's an article, http://www.commondreams.org/news2004/0128-11.htm
Skrebowski is a smart guy, his chart from Nov 5: "High oil prices now needed to balance supply and demand - Again", looks like mine from September 5
LOL!
Back around 2003 or 4 the Megaprojects Report forecasted trouble starting in 2007 and was what I based my plans on. He seems to be forecasting peak in 2015 now.
Couldn't find the original report, it is no longer on ODAC and I can't find a reprint from Petroleum Review, here's an article, http://www.commondreams.org/news2004/0128-11.htm
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Chris Skrebowski’s ASPO2011 Megaprojects Update
by dorlomin » Sun 29 Jan 2012, 13:22:46
Unfortunately the wikipedia page has not been updated since 2010.
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Re: Chris Skrebowski’s ASPO2011 Megaprojects Update
by dolanbaker » Sun 29 Jan 2012, 13:32:42
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')This page was last modified on 23 January 2012 at 11:03.
ISTR that someone said that the data is frequently updated, but the page format isn't.
Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by rulers as useful.:Anonymous
Our whole economy is based on planned obsolescence.
Hungrymoggy "I am now predicting that Europe will NUKE ITSELF sometime in the first week of January"
Our whole economy is based on planned obsolescence.
Hungrymoggy "I am now predicting that Europe will NUKE ITSELF sometime in the first week of January"
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Re: Chris Skrebowski’s ASPO2011 Megaprojects Update
by dorlomin » Sun 29 Jan 2012, 13:51:18
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')This page was last modified on 23 January 2012 at 11:03.
ISTR that someone said that the data is frequently updated, but the page format isn't.
I get OPEC 2012 1275
and 1000 for non OPEC so a slight change of down 200 bpd to the one in the totals.
I also get 1070 for 2013 OPEC and 1575 for non OPEC so a total of 90 bpd higher.
So if we assume a depletion of 3% on 75 million barrels a day we'd need 2.25bpd per anum to replace that depletion. Just about squeeking it.
But if the depletion is 6% we can be expecting to see falling numbers, unless some of the new production capacity Saudi has claimed to have is coming onstream.
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