by GoIllini » Tue 24 Jan 2012, 16:14:07
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', 'N')o, what I'm saying is the fact that Saudi Arabia is a swing producer keeps oil prices about $5 higher than they otherwise would be-
Does it now.
So if the price is higher than it should be, buyers would drop out of the market because they cannot afford it. The oil price is set by what consumers are prepared to pay. If you dont want to pay a price for oil but another consumer does, the market shifts the supply there. If no one wants to pay that price a glut builds up and people have to supply at a lower cost to entice a buyer into the market.
That buyer maybe a tupperware box, an airtravel ticket or petrol at the station.
It's also set by what producers can produce it for and how much speculators are willing to pay for the
At $200/barrel, Saudi Arabia's price floor of $60 wouldn't matter very much. (Of course at that point, they would up it to $100). But here, that floor is something that speculators can take advantage of in their pricing.
This is coming from a quant- an active participant in the markets who doesn't disparage speculators at all, but also knows how it works. Take out the price floor, you take out the convexity. Take out the convexity, and you reduce the premium over fair value that speculators are willing to pay.
Also, I think the tupperware box is made from natural gas these days.