[SidneyTawl]

ONW,

Yep, I thought you meant BG.

I'm a camera operator/DP mainly.

FYI I saw a story this morning that they had found Avian in pigs.

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v4 ... 5390a.html

Says they think 1/2 of the pigs have it with no signs of infection.

[OilsNotWell]

ST, that's not good news at all. It's very, very bad. It seems to be perhaps only a matter of time before H5N1 does find a way for rapid sustained H-2-H transmission...pigs are known carriers of human flu strains...and so recombinations are quite probable eventually. From all that I have read, influenza is capable of extremely rapid genetic drifts and shifts. The fact that the pigs are asymptomatic doesn't mean we should be unconcerned...On the contrary...it's lulling people into complacency. The Dr. Nidom quoted in the article took his case to the press after the authorities ignored him. Like he did in 2003 and proved H5N1 was endemic in poultry there, and had caused the mass deaths of chickens.

Most folks don't realize that bacteria and viruses are extremely prevalent in every human body, from in utero till we die. Millions and millions of years of 'mostly' symbiotic processes...the bacteria in our gut, for example...we feed them...they feed us...it's how we digest our food literally,. 'Germ warfare' between these bacteria and viruses and 'counter-defenses' go on at very rapid clips, mutations built into the system to create advantage. It's Darwin at relative nano-speeds. Our modern-day miracle, penicilin, is actually just such a example of counter-bactierial-warfare-creating by other organisms...And we are beginning to see the bacterial response to its use by humans....resistant infections...

Oh well.

I debated whether to continue posting on this thread as much as I have because of the ignorant comment of PMS (chuckle)...but if he chooses to ignore it...so what...I really don't have a duty to warn him or his family. It's his life. More for me later then, I guess. But to dismiss this much consensus from every major infectious disease expert is astonishing. Oh, and PNS....if you want to dismiss something...try to find at least ONE opposing expert viewpoint (unless YOU are an expert) ok? Your criticism of the number of pages for what has been termed "the world's number one threat" doesn't hold water. If even a medium-level pandemic occurs, it pushes peak oil off quite a while, don't you think? So, in essense, the progression of this problem, H5N1, goes hand in hand with this website, and the timing of the peak. And we know you're are not here because you believe PO won't be a problem, right?

Which is why I asked if anyone was still reading or cared...

Here's a few facts that are useful:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')OUTES OF EXPOSURE TO AVIAN FLU

Most human influenza infections are spread by virus-laden respiratory droplets that are expelled during coughing and sneezing. Influenza viruses range in size from 0.08 to 0.12 micrometers.6 They are carried in respiratory secretions as small-particle aerosols (less than 10 micrometers in diameter).7

In an agricultural setting, animal manure containing influenza virus can contaminate dust and soil, causing infection when the contaminated dust is inhaled. Contaminated farm equipment, feed, cages, or shoes can carry the virus from farm to farm. The virus can also be carried on the bodies and feet of animals, such as rodents. "The virus can survive, at cool temperatures, in contaminated manure for at least three months. In water, the virus can survive for up to four days at 72º F and more than 30 days at 32º F. For the highly pathogenic form (of influenza A), studies have shown that a single gram of contaminated manure can contain enough virus to infect 1 million birds."

and other info on avian influenza virus and how to handle it here:

OSHA Avian Inflenza Guidelines

[OilsNotWell]

Go back to sleep PMS....yep, just a few more experts yakking it up to scare you...


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')r. Anthony Fauci & Laurie Garrett
PBS News Hour
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIRD FLU
May 26, 2005

RAY SUAREZ: Throughout the past week, there have been new alarms and new calls to action about a possible flu pandemic. It all stems from a deadly flu strain passed from birds to humans. The strain, known as H5-N1, and more commonly referred to as Avian Flu, turned up again this winter in Southeast Asia, leading to new cases in Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia.

So far, there have been 97 recorded human cases and 53 deaths since 2004. While those numbers are not so large now, the World Health Organization reports the virus is continuing to mutate in ways that makes it increasingly infectious to people. And today the scientific journal Nature devoted much of its issue to the subject, warning of a potential pandemic that could kill millions if preparations did not improve.

For a closer look at all of this, I'm joined by Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. He wrote a commentary in today's issue of Nature. And Laurie Garrett -- she runs the global health program at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Dr. Fauci, one of the core issues, I guess, for understanding this disease is what we know about how it gets passed from birds to humans and whether humans pass it to other humans. Do we have a good handle on that yet?

DR. ANTHONY FAUCI: We know it has already jumped from birds to humans, and that's the thing that is the first part of the real concern, because this is a virus, the H5-N1, which the human society has had no prior experience with. So there's no residual or baseline immunity. It's a brand-new thing for them, which means that the protection that we generally get from year to year.

Like right now this season the regular seasonal flu was an H3-N2, was a little bit different than last year's H3-N2, a little different than the previous year, but we have cumulative experience. The H5-N1 is a major shift. As we call it, those little changes are drifts. And what happens is that you get chickens infected and this virus has adapted itself to jump from chickens to humans in Asia.

The biggest focus right now is in Vietnam. When it gets efficiency in going from human to human, and viruses tend to evolve, to go toward that which will help propagate it -- there have been now 97 infections, as you mentioned, and 53 deaths. So it's still inefficient in going from bird to human. There have been two well-documented cases of human-to-human.

So by mutation or adapting itself, it very likely could get better and better in its efficiency in going from human to human. Once that happens, Ray, then you have a really bad situation, because if it spreads widely, you have people who have no prior experience, so they don't have any baseline immunity to respond rapidly.

The other important point is that this is a very highly lethal virus; it's killed 53 out of the 97 documented cases. It's unlike what we see in the regular flu, which is less than 1 percent. So the potential for this being a really serious problem is there, and nothing that's happening is telling us that it's going in the other direction. It keeps going in the direction that is making us quite anxious. It's increasing its host range, and it's changing ways, there are more clusters that are not explainable. So we have a very serious situation here.

RAY SUAREZ: Laurie Garrett, what's the best scientific opinion if you survey about how much of the threat Avian Flu poses worldwide and Asia in particular?

LAURIE GARRETT: Well, certainly in the public health community and in the community of virologists that know a lot about flu, concern is very, very high. I was just at the World Health Assembly, which is the governing body of the World Health Organization, for a week of meetings in Geneva, and everybody was talking about flu.

It's the number-one concern on the minds of most global health experts right now. And there are a number of reasons why this year we're more worried than we have been in my lifetime. We've seen this H5-N1 strain, which is unlike any strain, as Dr. Fauci was explaining, human beings have ever seen before. So you don't have antibodies to it; I don't have antibodies to it.

As far as we know, nobody has antibodies to it. We've seen this thing go through a series of mutational changes over the last two, three years, and just very recently it's been confirmed -- actually just today -- confirmed by the Indonesian government that they've identified an outbreak of it in pigs in Indonesia.

This is very worrying, because what this means is that the virus may have found a way to infect another species of mammals, big difference from infecting birds, Ray. If it starts infecting pigs and other mammals, then it's a quick leap to whatever genetic change is necessary for this virus to evolve into the kind of flu that is incredibly contagious from person to person.

And it's important to understand, when we talk about contagious viruses -- and I know lots of people have heard of the so-called scary ones like Ebola and Marburg -- these are actually really hard to get compared to flu. This influenza virus can sit on a doorknob for six days and still be infectious to somebody who comes along six days later; someone rubs their hand on that doorknob and, as we all do, happens to infect themselves.

It is so infectious, so contagious that at the World Health Organization meetings I was at, people are really tearing their hair out trying to figure out how we could control it, how could can stop it from spreading all over the world. Our host of classic ways of dealing with public health problems of various kinds is very, very limited in this case.

RAY SUAREZ: Well, is there, Dr. Fauci, a public health approach to seal up something like a flu in a geographical area? Laurie Garrett mentioned Ebola and Marburg. Those haven't spread worldwide. Is there a way with a flu like this to just cordon it off?

DR. ANTHONY FAUCI: Yes and no. Because, as Laurie said very accurately, it spreads so rapidly that it isn't the kind of thing that's easily containable. But, having said that, good public health measures of identification, reporting accurately and in a transparent way, when you get the opportunity to isolate people, and the president himself signed a quarantine, an executive order to be able to quarantine and add pandemic flu to the list of quarantinable diseases.

But it's a combination of public health measures, coordination among nations, vaccine and drugs. Now, the problem that we're facing, we have assumed that this is serious enough that we are already in trials of an H5-N1 vaccine that we started in April. We've already completed the first two stages of it in healthy adults. We're going to analyze the data for safety and what's the right dose because, unlike the regular flu vaccine, where you know you can give one dose and get a good immunity.

Since we haven't seen this before, it is likely that we'll have to use a higher dose and/or two vaccinations. When this data comes, we'll move to the elderly and then we'll go to children. The problem is that the vaccine-manufacturing capacity of the world is only anywhere between 300 million and 450 million. There are six billion people in the world.

So we have a problem with capacity that even if we don't -- and it is likely we don't -- even though we're very concerned, Laurie and I and many others, that we'll have a problem soon, if we don't have it this year, this isn't something that's going to just disappear. This is here to stay. We will have a pandemic sometime. It may be this year, next year, the year later.

And what we're concerned about is that we've got to build up the capacity to have countermeasures in the form of vaccines and therapeutics as opposed to saying, "We got through this year; let's just go back to square one." We have a vaccine production industry that is in fact very, very fragile, and we actually discussed this on this show not too long ago when we were dealing with the shortages of flu vaccine from the previous winter.

RAY SUAREZ: So, Laurie Garrett, does the world end up on the horns of a paradox again where those countries that are most able to provide vaccine to their people are actually the places least in threat of having an Avian Flu outbreak, while the places that are most threatened are the least able to respond?

LAURIE GARRETT: It's worse than that, Ray. I mean, the problem is when you sit down with a global organization like WHO, 192 member countries, everybody passes a resolution saying, "We're very worried about pandemic flu; we're terribly concerned this could be the year that we see a flu that could take millions and millions of lives worldwide."

Well, then you pass a series of resolutions. You must stockpile drugs, you must try to make vaccine; you should have a national plan of action. All those are great to talk about in the context of a wealthy country like the United States or any of the European countries.

But what do you say to Chad? What do you say to Tanzania? What do you say to Vietnam? Poor countries can't muster up the kinds of plans we're talking about. And worse yet, in 1918, we did not have hundreds of millions of people with immune deficiency in the world -- immune deficiency either because they were elderly, cancer patients, or probably most significant because they had HIV disease and did not have access to drugs to treat the HIV disease.

We basically have the equivalent of a hillside of dry brush, when you think about Africa right now and the amount of HIV there, where you're lighting a match at one end and just watching that fire burn up that hill. That's what pandemic flu might be when it hits Africa.

RAY SUAREZ: Let me get a quick response on that point from Dr. Fauci. Are we getting ready enough in advance to help stave off some of the worst effects?

DR. ANTHONY FAUCI: There's no doubt this is the number-one priority of secretary Levitt in the Department of Health and Human Services rights now. We meet virtually daily about this. I mentioned the vaccine trial. We've stockpiled Tamiflu, which is the drug that this particular microbe is sensitive to. We don't have enough. It's 2.3 million treatment courses.

We need a lot more, and we'll get a lot more. So we're being very proactive about it. Again, being proactive is what we need to do, but this is such an enormous problem involving the entire global community, as Laurie mentioned, that we alone, even though we are far ahead of others in this regard, we alone are not going to solve the problem. It's got to be global collaboration.

RAY SUAREZ: Anthony Fauci, Laurie Garrett, thank you both.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/heal...5/flu_5-26.html

[oowolf]

OK, it's coming. What are we going to do about it?
http://www.homeowatch.org/history/oscillo.html
http://www.life-enthusiast.com/master/i ... arsley.htm
http://www.holistic-online.com/Aromathe ... ee-oil.htm
http://www.medicineflower.com/melissa1010ml.html
Others?

[Rhinestones]

What are we going to do? HIDE

I consciously avoided this topic for the longest time. I mean how much can one person wonder over? When i finally clicked and read through all 12 pages, watching the progression of reporting over weeks was jaw-dropping scary. I hope you'll continue ONW. Great job.

My neighbor is a UPS pilot who shares PO awareness. While talking today I asked where he's flying to next. Louisville, Phillie, Cologne, Honk Kong, Euro-sumthin, Shentzin (sp) etc, and then home is his response. As he's telling it, I'm feeling the coldest dread come over me. I say " Bud, that makes you the Most dangerous person I know."

25 days til we move. I think i'll avoid him for 4-5 days after his return. tick, tick, tick...

[threadbear]

Where you moving to, Rhinestones?

[OilsNotWell]

Rhinestones...I share your feelings. There is no place to hide really, that's why all the scientists were "pulling their hair out"...unless you are wealthy or committed enough to remove yourself from all human contact for about a year or so...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's the number-one concern on the minds of most global health experts right now. And there are a number of reasons why this year we're more worried than we have been in my lifetime.

[OilsNotWell]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]China Acknowledges Bird, Livestock Epidemics
27 May, 2005 23:07 GMT

After stonewalling for weeks, China acknowledged Friday that two epidemics had spread among its animal and bird populations, renewing questions about its readiness to provide prompt information about infectious disease.
The belated announcement came amid fresh criticism that China's disease-surveillance system is inadequate to deal with an avian flu virus that scientists say may turn into a global pandemic among humans.

DNC Health News

[SidneyTawl]

Yep the transferrence to pigs or something like mice is a big deal. However, we don't know yet how it will transfer to humans and its potency.

No one knows, that is why it is important.

The problem is what is the real info, China is not a reputable source for facts.

[OilsNotWell]

And now for something completely different:
Python

Ring around the rosies
pocket full of posies
Ashes, ashes
We All Fall Down

Which, as some know, was based on The Black Death in Europe (1/3 died)..

BringOutYerDead
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')What are we going to do? HIDE

[Rhinestones]

Oh, i just can't stop.

[gg3]

Assuming one wants to stockpile a couple of courses of Tamiflu:

How long does it keep? Do you store it in the fridge or some other way?

How much does it cost for one course for one adult human?

Is it available in pediatric dosages and if so, how much does that cost?

I'm thinking here about the idea that a sympathetic family doctor could write prescriptions now, and you could get them filled at a pharmacy in any decent-sized city.

If we stock up now, that shouldn't impact the larger community/national/global preparedness since this activity won't impact the manufacturers' capacity during the acute phase of the crisis. By analogy, stocking up on plywood months ahead of the hurricane season, rather than waiting until a storm has been sighted. Or is that analogy flawed?

[OilsNotWell]

good news, bad news

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '*')**[ProMED regrets that this response published 25 May 2005 to our post of
the same date was not brought to our attention until today]

Date: Sat 28 May 2005
From: ProMED-mail <promed@promedmail.org
Source: sympatico.ca, ex Canadian Press, Wed 25 May 2005 [edited]
<http://mediresource.sympatico.ca/health_news_detail.asp?channel_id=133&news
_id=6817


WHO: China Denies Reports of Human Cases of H5N1 Influenza Infection
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Chinese health authorities have denied Internet reports that there have been
human infections and deaths caused by the H5N1 influenza virus in their
country, the head of the World Health Organization's influenza branch said
on Wed 25 May 2005.

Dr. Klaus Stohr said the WHO conferred with representatives of the Chinese
Ministry of Health both in Geneva and in Beijing and was given assurances
the reports, published on some Chinese websites, were unfounded. "We have
spoken with the Ministry of Health representatives here in Geneva today. We
have also had contact with our colleagues in China. They have come back and
said that there is no indication of human cases. They have not seen any
human cases," Stohr said in an interview from Geneva. The WHO will continue
to monitor the situation, Stohr added.

A report circulated by ProMED-mail -- a mailing list operated by the
International Society for Infectious Diseases -- said at least 6 [Chinese]
tourists to Qinghai province died after being infected with H5N1 influenza
virus. The discovery that 178 migratory geese carrying the virus had died
in a nature reserve in Qinghai Province has had Chinese authorities
scrambling to ensure the deadly H5N1 virus doesn't get a toe hold in their
country. Their response includes mass vaccination of two million chickens in
the area. [China’s report to the OIE of 21 May 2005 stated that 519
migratory waterfowl of 5 species had been found dead from avian flu, see
ProMED post: Avian influenza, geese - China (02) 20050523.1423. - Mod.JW]

Stohr said Chinese authorities responded in writing and in detail to WHO's
queries, explaining the vaccination program and precautions being taken by
workers involved in it. As well, authorities are on the lookout for cases of
severe respiratory disease among workers or people who visited the nature
reserve, he said.

Influenza authorities fear the H5N1 avian influenza virus, which has become
endemic in bird stocks in some parts of Southeast Asia, may acquire the
ability to transmit easily to and among humans, sparking a flu pandemic.

(By: Helen Branswell)

--
ProMED-mail

[OilsNotWell]

thanks Shannymara-

I too have been keeping as fully briefed on the China situation...

There continue to be additional reports (from the same source again, so it's REALLY hard to confirm), but at the very least it bears investigatiing further. I haven't posted the details here because it's still an ongoing development. But the details are very, troubling, and detailed...The problem is the translations ALL SUCK and it's hard to really tell what's going on to confirm this and the rest of the media has basically taken the Chinese denials at face value (Again!)...This is an issue that has worldwide ramifications and yet I hear virtually nothing....

HOWEVER, I want to ask ANYONE on this board, WHO CAN TRANSLATE CHINESE INTO ENGLISH COHERENTLY (Mandarin I think) to CONTACT ME via PM.....Even if you KNOW SOMEONE WHO KNOWS SOMEONE....

The other news is that H5N1 has now been acknowledged to be completely endemic in Indonesia...in pigs in Java too...sigh....

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')U must prepare now for flu pandemic -commissioner
27 May 2005 14:56:41 GMT

Source: Reuters

STOCKHOLM, May 27 (Reuters) - Europe will almost certainly be hit by an influenza epidemic, possibly a mutation of bird flu which has already killed more than 50 people in Asia, the European Union's health commissioner said on Friday.

Launching the EU's European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) in the Swedish capital, Commissioner Markos Kyprianou said EU states must make immediate preparations for tackling such an outbreak.

An "influenza pandemic seems inevitable," he said.

Reuters AlertNet

[OilsNotWell]

That info earlier about the chemical resveratrol (RV) in grapes inhibiting flu virus?

Posted in Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy (CIDRAP) now..


CIDRAP

However, the concentration at which it seemed most effective was at

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'a')n initial cell-culture experiment, treatment with resveratrol at 20 mcg/ml reduced flu virus replication 90%,

[OilsNotWell]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Brazil Orders Slaughter of 17,000 Chickens Wednesday June 1, 2005 3:16 AM

SAO PAULO, Brazil (AP) - Authorities ordered the slaughter of 17,000 chickens after 6,000 chickens died from a mysterious respiratory illness in a central western Brazilian state, officials said.

Sanitary authorities do not know what kind of disease the chickens had, but expect to identify it by the end of this week, Gladys Raquel, an animal sanitation manger with the state government of Mato Grosso do Sul state, said Tuesday in a statement.

Raquel and officials with Brazil's Agriculture Ministry refused to answer questions about the illness, or whether it had similar symptoms to bird flu disease in Asia, saying they want to wait for the test results.

``Several diseases have similar symptoms, and as a result, we can't say which of them is present in the area,'' Raquel said.

Millions of chickens and other fowl have been slaughtered across Asia since bird flu was first discovered in late 2003 in attempts to stem the disease. A strain of the disease has jumped to humans, killing 54 people in Asia, with Vietnam accounting for 38 of those deaths.

The Brazilian farm in the town of Jaraguari where the chickens died was surrounded with road blocks.

The Agencia Estado news agency also reported that more than 100 other chicken farms were quarantined in Jaraguari, 20 miles from the Mato Grosso do Sul state capital of Campo Grande. Campo Grande is about 750 miles northwest of Sao Paulo.

*Brazil is the world's largest chicken exporter*. Production in South America's largest country rose 8 percent last year, with exports skyrocketing 26 percent, in part because of the outbreak of bird flu in Asia.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/s ... 12,00.html

[OilsNotWell]

ProMed says:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')NDIAGNOSED DISEASE, POULTRY - BRAZIL (MATO GROSSO DO SUL): REQUEST FOR
INFORMATION
***************************************************
A ProMED-mail post
<http://www.promedmail.org>
ProMED-mail, a program of the
International Society for Infectious Diseases
<http://www.isid.org>

Date: 31 May 2005
From: Luz Alba Fornells <luzalba@bioqmed.ufrj.br>
Source: Folha de Sao Paulo online 31 May 2005 [translated & edited by Mod.JW]
<http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha/dinheiro/ult91u9675.shtml>


Mato Grosso do Sul culls 17 000 poultry with respiratory illness
---------------------------------------------------
Iagro (State Agency for Animal and Plant Health Protection) announced
yesterday [30 May 2005] that the previous weekend it had culled 17 000
chickens in a poultry farm affected by a disease with respiratory symptoms
in Jaraguari (30 km from Campo Grande) [the state capital], in Mato Grosso
do Sul.

According to Iagro, besides the 17 000 culled, about 6000 birds had already
died from the disease. The farm and 107 neighboring properties were
quarantined by Iagro.

Technicians collected specimens of poultry viscera, which were sent to Mapa
(Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries & Food) in Campinas (Sao Paulo state).
Test results should be available tomorrow [1 Jun 2005].

At least 15 Iagro staff set up roadblocks on the 3 access roads to the
property. They sprayed disinfectant on cars and trucks passing.

The director-president of Iagro, Gete Ottono da Rosa, said that 15
different types of disease cause respiratory symptoms in poultry. "Only
with the test results on Wednesday [1 Jun 2005] will we know which it is."

--
ProMED-mail
<promed@promedmail.org>

[Although it is disturbing to have this many birds affected with
respiratory signs, there are many diseases with very similar clinical
signs. Infectious laryngotracheitis and avian influenza are the 2 that
would certainly be on the differential list. We will be anxiously awaiting
the results of the testing and actions deemed necessary based upon those
tests. - Mod.TG]

[SidneyTawl]

ONW,

What is also an effect of this virus is not that it moves to man and reeks havoc. Its that it kills fowl and we kill fowl to remove it. What about a vaccine for the birds. Seems to me we may be putting the cart before the horse.

Oh I know. its just to simple. stop it at the source and not before it jumps.

Well there is a program sorta that trys to stop the source, but it may end up being worse than the cure.

silly me

always wondering why we choose one method over the other.

And we wonder why we waste energy.

[OilsNotWell]

ST, I'm all for it if we can do it in time. I'll be the first to jump up and say 'Boy am I glad to be wrong."

But that's what the Chinese announced recently, is that they supposedly had two new vaccines to prevent transmission between birds [that's what they rushed to Qinghai] (it also had some species specificity (what it worked for, chickens v. other, but I can't recall offhand)...but there are expert opinions that even if such as vaccine "works" (the Chinese claim "100%" and nearly every doctor or expert quoted in that regard scoff at such a claim), is that the birds are still shedding virus...what it really does is maybe protect the chickens from the virus...not the humans...I take that back...they DO claim it prevents infection to humans (but others disagree apparently):

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')hinese scientists announced Wednesday two newly developed vaccines are fully capable of stopping the spread of the deadly H5N1 strain of the bird flu virus to fowl, water birds, mammals or humans.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/do ... 445950.htm

[SidneyTawl]

Those migratory patterns are what I think is another problem.

It can jump. It may have jumped. Again, my source was concerned the Chinese were not truthfull in their reporting of deaths in humans (unofficially).

If this ends up in US as only a "bird flu" and hits "purdue, or other fowl companies, the result will be disastorous. Can you imagine the "fowl" plants having to kill all their bird "here" in the US.

We are not farms. We have huge "grow farms'.

Bird Flu alone in the US fowl population will most like also cause "panic" in the uniformed populace