by kublikhan » Thu 05 Jan 2012, 17:13:28
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse3', 'U')PS, FedEx nor Boeing have a single EV in their fleets and not anywhere on the horizon.
This is what I was referring to when I said you were wrong. UPS, Fedex, and many other delivery fleets are expanding their electric, natural gas, and other alternatively fueled vehicles. Like I said earlier, medium duty delivery fleets are even better poised to go electric than automobiles. I would expect EVs in this market segment to grow faster than cars.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')lthough less than 1 percent of the medium-duty trucks U.S. companies will buy in 2011 will be all-electric, according to Americas Commercial Transportation Research Co., LLC, some industry experts are predicting that the medium-duty market will be one of the fastest growing segments of the emerging plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market.
Fleet focus on total cost of ownership: Medium-duty trucks are heavy users of fuel, which means the economics of switching to all-electric can be very favorable for a company,” said Dave Hurst, senior analyst, Pike Research. “The upfront cost premium of electric trucks can be recovered increasingly quickly as the price of diesel climbs because the cost of electricity is much lower. Since fleet managers tend to look at total cost of ownership rather than just the up-front cost, this is a positive advantage for electric, assuming it fits their route.” Genevieve Cullen, vice president, Electric Drive Transportation Association (EDTA) agreed. “The battery-electric and plug-in hybrid medium-duty market is growing based on the advances in the technology that improves performance; the regulatory drivers that require increasingly clean and fuel-efficient vehicles; and the continuing volatility in the petroleum markets, which makes electricity an economically-attractive option for business and fleet owners,” Cullen said.
Recurring routes with return-to-base operations: “Many medium-duty trucks are used in return-to-base type routes. These vehicles leave a central point, run a pre-defined route, and return to base. As long as this route fits within the range of the vehicle then electric could work very well,” said Hurst of Pike Research.
Vehicle size conducive for carrying batteries and other PEV components: “Attributes of medium-duty trucks tend to lend themselves to electrification,” Hurst explained. “The vehicles have more space within or alongside the truck frame for the batteries. The batteries tend to take up a lot of space, which is one of the challenges in a light-duty vehicle and there just aren’t the same kind of space constraints in medium duty trucks.”
Ideal for off-highway, stop-and-go, lower speed applications: “Trucks used within urban environments often do not need high speed, so a top speed of 45-50 mph is often plenty,” Hurst said. “Since higher speeds tend to use a lot of energy, these lower speeds help extend the range of the vehicle.” According to Cullen, “Medium-duty vehicles tend to be used in more urban delivery/duty cycles, which optimizes the value of regenerative braking.”
Dave Hurst, senior analyst, Pike Research: “By 2017, we are expecting the market to support about 5,600 trucks per year. So, by 2017, that would mean about 20,000 all-electric medium-duty trucks on the roads. Growth in the market through 2017 is expected to be strong with a 36-percent growth rate between now and 2017.
“Unlike the consumer automobile market, the electric vehicle market for business is very new so it’s still early. However, interest is high — especially in categories such as local delivery, where vehicles are in use and we are beginning to see total cost of ownership analysis that are favorable for EVs.”
Genevieve Cullen, vice president, Electric Drive Transportation Association: “We are bullish on this market. It is an emerging one, but we expect meaningful growth in the next decade based on the factors described above. Technology advances, regulatory demands, and increasing oil costs all reinforce the movement toward electrification in this segment. In fact, Pike Research projects that sales of medium- and heavy-duty hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery-electric trucks will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 63 percent, with sales of almost 300,000 vehicles from 2010 to 2015.”
“We expect the commercial fleet market to develop ahead of the passenger EV market because the economic argument for cutting the cost of fuel for trucks that may get between 6 and 8 mpg by 80 percent is absolutely compelling.
As for the small 1% figure, the EV market for medium duty vehicles is very new, an emerging market. The ARRA(Stimulus bill) was only passed in 2009(contains incentives for EVs). And the new regulatory standards for emissions and fuel economy in medium duty vehicles were only passed in 2010. They don't even go into effect until 2014. The surprise to me is that so many fleets are going electric already. Battery prices are still very high right now. I expect to see accelerating EV growth as the new standards go into effect in 2014 and battery prices continue to fall sharply out to 2020.
And why in gods name would you want to create an EV heavy duty truck for long range shipping? Even today rail or ship can do the job cheaper and more efficiently. And that's before we get into the cost of adding the buttload of batteries the rig would need. The economics just don't work well for a long range EV heavy duty truck. I would expect this segment to continue to use diesel even with sky high prices. Plus further shifts to rail. Maybe some biodiesel. But an all electric long range heavy duty truck? Don't hold your breath. However I don't see this as a huge problem though. Consider this:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', 'I')f i did my math correct, a container ship used .0054 gallons of fuel per pound of cargo for a trip between China and Los Angeles. Then add the trucking from Los Angeles to La Crosse where i live...about 2000 miles...so a semi used.... .0074 gallons of fuel to ship my 1lb of veggies. SO to ship my 1lb of veggies from China to La Crosse consumed .0128 gallons of fuel vs my car using .4 gallons to get to the store and back!!! Holy crap.. I think it shows you that hauling large amounts is a heck of a lot more efficient then small amounts.