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2012 Predictions Forum

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: 2012 Predictions Forum

Postby Sys1 » Sun 01 Jan 2012, 18:39:28

"2012 will be the end of the world as we know it" (tm) (c)

Degradation of France and Deutschland by S&P, Fitch and Moody's
Italia, Spain and Portugal economy collapsing.
Euro collapses.
Massive strikes and riots in whole Europe
Olympic games suspended in England
Iran attacked by Israel or USA then Hormuz's strait becomes an impossible route for supertankers.
Oil skyrockets to 300$
Hyperinflation in China and USA because of printing money+cost of energy
real estate bubble pop, more banks collapse

End of 2012 :
Solar CME hitting Earth, collapse of the grid
Exponential global warming with massive release of methane
collapse of food production
thermonuclear war
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Re: 2012 Predictions Forum

Postby Quinny » Sun 01 Jan 2012, 21:30:40

Can I put in an entry for the German and French leaders

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012 ... sfeed=true
Live, Love, Learn, Leave Legacy.....oh and have a Laugh while you're doing it!
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Re: 2012 Predictions Forum

Postby vtsnowedin » Sun 01 Jan 2012, 22:28:22

Lots of good stuff above but I think Sys1 is a bit too doomerish for me. Trying not to duplicate others work above I would add that the Islamic brotherhood will take control in Egypt, Libya and Syria and then find that they have no clue as to how to solve there countries problems as over population is the problem and the Islamist can't abide any form of birth control. Civil war and genocide will result. Perhaps a half million dead this year with more to follow. North Korea's new fearless leader won't last six months and we will find out what general is really running the country. Iran will miscalculate and close the strait for two days or so while the US and Israel lay waste to their navy ,air force, and what portions of their nuclear program we have been able to locate.
And last but not least gas will be $5.25 in the US by Christmas day.
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Re: 2012 Predictions Forum

Postby Cog » Sun 01 Jan 2012, 22:44:56

1) Romney will win the election but I will have problems collecting my $100 in wagers.

2) Oil prices will hover around $100/bbl WTI and the USA will slip back into an official recession since there will be no ability to stimulate the economy with the Republicans holding the House.

3) Nothing will happen with the Iranians except continued bluster and threats.

4) Joe Biden will not be Obama's running mate

5) Next fall there will be massive layoffs of teachers, firemen, and policemen. See #2

6) Pakistan will stop all further help to the US effort in Afghanistan, making our place there untenable.

7) There will be a middle class stimulus payment made to the taxpayers sometime in June or July to stimulate spending. Money will be found for this by cutting something ten years from now.

(8) Rossi of E-CAT fame will be indicted for fraud. Some other free energy scam will immediately take its place.

9) Arctic sea ice will reach a new minimum extent record

10) The Cornies will continue to post "All is Well" threads.
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Re: 2012 Predictions Forum

Postby Daniel_Plainview » Mon 02 Jan 2012, 00:38:06

As credit markets collapse and sovereigns go bankrupt, the USA and EU will experience a deflationary depression where GDP will plummet and commodity prices will plunge (including oil and gold). Already reeling from austerity measures, deeply indebted countries will be powerless to invoke fiscal stimuli.

The central banks will respond by printing gobs of money, which will delay implosion by a few months, and lead to a hyperinflationary collapse of fiat money. This will, in turn, cause commodity prices (oil and gold) to skyrocket.

The only question is whether the deflationary depression will happen in 2012, 2013, or 2014. But it will happen ... soon.
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Re: 2012 Predictions Forum

Postby Cog » Mon 02 Jan 2012, 00:44:20

I would say 2013 only because this is an election year.
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Re: 2012 Predictions Forum

Postby Pops » Mon 02 Jan 2012, 16:46:19

The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: 2012 Predictions Forum

Postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 02 Jan 2012, 22:49:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'I') think the course of world history will change in 2012 and it all hinges on Ron Paul.

Ron Paul is surging in the polls despite a media attempt to discredit him. They have failed. Too many people have heard him speak now as he is causing an awaking. He will win the nomination and the presidency if he is not assassinated first. One must understand that Ron Paul knows about secrets of the Federal Reserve and what the people behind the shadow banking system are up to. He is a true patriot who will not betray the US in the name of the evil bankers. He will End the Fed if elected. He knows this, they know this. So the show down is set. Whether he wins or looses the status quo is toast.

As a libertarian, and one who thinks Ron Paul actually believes in what he says, I WISH I could agree with Novus on all counts.

Unfortunately, being "crazy" enough to actually honestly answer questions, he is NOT planning on pandering to the "something for nothing" crowd, nor the spending (and profit) whims of all the special interest groups.

Therefore I predict that the (actual) 2012 presidential libertarian candidate is (as usual) completely unelectable, despite making more sense in the vast majority of the issues than his rivals.

So, I also predict that whoever wins, it won't matter -- they will (consistent with tradition) lie and spend and screw things up along with congress -- and things in the first world, with the U.S. leading by (bad) example, will continue to get worse.

I predict the right will blame the left, the left will blame the right, and both sides will continue to vote endlessly for their own spending priorities while whining about unsustainable deficits (and pledging to fix them "in the future").
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: 2012 Predictions Forum

Postby Shaved Monkey » Tue 03 Jan 2012, 00:57:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Serial_Worrier', 'N')orth Korea will nuke Seoul and launch all it's missiles into South Korea and Japan.

Wont happen there is no net long term benefit to NK to launch an attack.
Its only weapon is threat.
The "West" likes having the faux threat its great for arm sales and close military and economic ties for countries in need of a strong friend.
The US and its allies will continue to try and bankrupt NK by forcing it to spend on military hardware at the detriment of its people, by pretending its a threat and arming its enemies and giving them an excuse to have some weapons near China.
Ready to turn Zombies into WWOOFers
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Re: 2012 Predictions Forum

Postby careinke » Tue 03 Jan 2012, 04:57:29

I predict Ron Paul will lose the Republican nomination to Mitt Romney after a long and bitter fight. Paul will be recruited to run on the Libertarian ticket but will not be allowed to participate in the national debates. Still he receives 20 percent of the vote allowing Obama an easy win.

All of the Republicans who voted for the NDAA will be replaced, but curiously, none of the NDAA Democrats will be voted out of office.

Fracking will be outlawed.

Washington State will legalize pot, but the Feds will step in and make it a moot point. The racist drug war will continue and more law enforcement members will die from guns sold to the drug cartels by our own government.

We, or the Israelis will attack Iran. Of course if we attack, Obama will not take the time to obtain congressional approval.

Arctic Ice will extent will be below 2 million Square KM. Weather extremes will be even more prevalent than last year. A major earthquake will hit the west coast of the US.

A world wide great depression hits in the forth quarter. The Euro collapses bringing down the dollar with it. The underground economy booms as it replaces the official economy. The IRS goes after the underground economy hoping to garner more tax dollars.

Next year this time, I write an even gloomier prediction, but the new NET censors block it because it has "terrorist overtones", and I am hauled off to indefinite detention.
Cliff (Start a rEVOLution, grow a garden)
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Re: 2012 Predictions Forum

Postby Pops » Tue 03 Jan 2012, 13:31:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', 'N')ext year this time, I write an even gloomier prediction, but the new NET censors block it because it has "terrorist overtones", and I am hauled off to indefinite detention.

:lol:

--
This, from Gregor Macdonald,is kind of along the same lines as what I'm thinking:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')or 2012, therefore, I am planning not on rupture (or rapture) but on decay. The market will go through the year with a persistent desire for drama. But at this point, after psychologically anticipating a rupture in our tightly coupled financial system, the exit of a country from the Eurozone would more likely be greeted with relief. The Euro is not going away, neither is the Dollar, nor the Yen. Instead, like the system itself, they will simply continue their chronic declines against food prices, energy prices, and yes, gold. What’s frankly the most terrible outcome for young people in the West is that the placing of our unpayable debt into cold storage prevents the explosive reset of the system, which, although terrible, would trigger the blossoming of wildflowers. Let young people be not confused: the policies which crush your opportunities are designed to save the retirement of the aging class.

...Zooming to a larger view, if you read the scholarly work on collapse from Joseph Tainter and Jared Diamond, and also study the myriad ways in which resource scarcity halts the growth of large systems, you will come to understand better that fast collapse is the anomaly and decline is the norm.


Read the whole thing...
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: 2012 Predictions Forum

Postby evilgenius » Thu 05 Jan 2012, 11:22:54

Although I am very curious about it I don't really have a prediction for what direction executive pay will take relative to both worker's wages and company earnings. I have a hunch that it will continue to take a larger piece of the pie. I suppose I think that because even though it is a trend that you think would stop with the downturn, having been at the root of it, there is no mechanism to stop or restrain it. Those who make the decisions on this one continue to both make those decisions and benefit directly from them. It comes down to what happens if you make corrections to the executive pay scheme and you are wrong. It is too easy to see companies going down and/or mass layoffs because of loss of leadership.

The big question here is will the world begin to examine how much mythology there is behind those assumptions? On the one hand you have Ayn Rand telling you that only very special people rise to those positions. On the other hand you have the collectives telling you that anybody can be CEO. Neither side is right. It takes a more introspective society to recognize the situation for what it is, executives are overpaid but pitchforks are not the answer. Will the West become more introspective?


There seems to be a lot of talk lately concerning detention. Many people are worried they will wind up in some camp or suffer some loss of property or freedom just short of that. This begs the question, why? While people look at the possibility of camps they never seem to mention what kind of behaviors might bring them about, except to throw out this and that 'false flag'. What if those things you want to call false flags aren't? I think it may be time to recognize that the US could have a problem with domestic terrorism if the subset of people whose rhetoric and belief systems entertain alienation at the most worrisome level should have their worldview crushed. If their apocalyptic scenarios don't happen, they might try to make them happen. Most people will just be like those stuck holding gold after having bought in at the peak, miserable but ok. A small number could, however, get mean. While I do not think there is any danger of camps in the coming year I do think there is a great danger that the level of inflammatory rhetoric will increase. Perhaps there will be a person or two who will do the equivalent of flying their light planes into an IRS building? Who knows what kind of things will happen due to so many people thinking that Obama is the anti-Christ should he get re-elected. Certainly most people will just talk. I'm giving it a %30 chance that some will do more.
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Re: 2012 Predictions Forum

Postby Pops » Thu 05 Jan 2012, 11:43:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', 'T')here seems to be a lot of talk lately concerning detention. Many people are worried they will wind up in some camp or suffer some loss of property or freedom just short of that. This begs the question, why?

Seven million people in the US are either in detention, on probation or parole - 25% of the incarcerated population of the world is in the US. The US has the world's highest incarceration rate - 50% higher than the next highest, Russia.
80% (?) of the incarcerated are there for non-violent offenses.

Just sayin.


(Wiki's numbers on non-violent offenders are kinda confusing so of course I took the highest number that backs up my statement... :wink: )
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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