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Peaked!...????????????

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Peaked!...????????????

Unread postby nigel » Mon 19 Jul 2004, 12:44:10

What do you make of this? It has peaked because back in 1998 someone predicted it would do so at 80mbpd.

http://www.axisoflogic.com/artman/publi ... 0307.shtml
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Unread postby Aaron » Mon 19 Jul 2004, 13:09:42

Yes,

That is exactly what he is saying.

They speculate that around 80 mbd somewhere is the most we will ever produce.
Last edited by Aaron on Mon 19 Jul 2004, 15:08:52, edited 1 time in total.
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Unread postby nigel » Mon 19 Jul 2004, 15:03:20

It was a rhetorical question..

Consider the argument...

It has peaked - because the peak will occur when we are producing 80mbpd - we are producing 80mbpd - therefore it has peaked!

Don't you think there's a bit missing in the logic, Aaron?
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Unread postby Leanan » Mon 19 Jul 2004, 15:17:09

I don't think whoever wrote that really understood the issue.

But the Antiwar.com article is just as doofy. Just because Malthus' doom didn't happen when he predicted, it can never happen? Yeah, that makes sense.
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Unread postby BudDwyer » Fri 23 Jul 2004, 09:58:52

Has it peaked in extraction/production in 98 but hasn't meet the demand line untill now?
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Re:

Unread postby ObiWan » Sun 25 Dec 2011, 16:03:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BudDwyer', 'H')as it peaked in extraction/production in 98 but hasn't meet the demand line untill now?


Obviously it peaked at 80. And then a plateau at 85. Most recently, it has climbed to 90. Once upon a time these types of factual inconsistencies mattered, but nowadays, not so much. Let us face it, as long as you, me, and everyone else who needs it can acquire a tanker truck of fuel for whatever purpose we'd like, it doesn't really matter. So just pretend it hasn't happened.
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Re: Peaked!...????????????

Unread postby KingM » Mon 26 Dec 2011, 09:42:04

Is there a reason that you resuscitated a short, weak thread that is seventy-seven months old?
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Re: Peaked!...????????????

Unread postby dorlomin » Mon 26 Dec 2011, 09:47:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'I')s there a reason that you resuscitated a short, weak thread that is seventy-seven months old?

Thread necromancing is as old as bulletin boards, much older than the web.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bump_%28Internet%29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')quot;Necroposting" (also called "necrobumping" or "gravedigging"), occurs when a forum thread that has been inactive for a long time, typically years, is bumped by a reader, usually in response to what he inadvertently believes to be an ongoing discussion, perhaps coming from a web search rather than from within the forum. These threads are often referred to as "zombie" threads.
On most forums its taken as trolling and earns the necromancer a sanction. Its just fishing for a reaction.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')An Internet forum user who enjoys reviving old, dead threads, just to be an ass. Is eventually banned from forums after causing numerous threads to be closed or deleted. Closely related to n00b and lamer.
"I wish that necromancer would stop bumping three-year-old threads with one-word posts."
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Re: Peaked!...????????????

Unread postby ObiWan » Mon 26 Dec 2011, 11:14:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'I')s there a reason that you resuscitated a short, weak thread that is seventy-seven months old?


Historical perspective. You see, once upon a time this was actually a peak oil website. Then peak happened, the fast crashers fled rather than face the laughter of others as their ideas crashed upon the shores of reality. Worse yet, peak was once perceived to be 80. Then it became 85. Then it became 90. Heaven forbid we actually pretend to be a peak oil website once again and ask how such things can happen in the face of all the reasons we have assembled to explain why it can't be possible. Except...it is.
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Re: Peaked!...????????????

Unread postby vision-master » Mon 26 Dec 2011, 11:24:24

Shorty is for hope and change. :)

Shorty 'believes' -> wishes it to be true.

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Re: Peaked!...????????????

Unread postby ObiWan » Mon 26 Dec 2011, 11:28:13

Excellent graph. And Hubbert extrapolated all of those "Unidentified Projects" as well, I don't suppose you want to argue that he shouldn't have? Maybe it was okay for Hubbert to do it, but no one else? Or maybe you don't even know that Hubbert did it?
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Re: Peaked!...????????????

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 26 Dec 2011, 11:39:58

:razz: Stupid graph actually as total consumption projected into the future cannot exceed total production plus the infinitesimally small amount we have in storage. The line that will rise like a rocket is the price of crude as it rises enough to bend that demand/consumption line down to the total production line.
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Re: Peaked!...????????????

Unread postby vision-master » Mon 26 Dec 2011, 11:44:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ObiWan', 'E')xcellent graph. And Hubbert extrapolated all of those "Unidentified Projects" as well, I don't suppose you want to argue that he shouldn't have? Maybe it was okay for Hubbert to do it, but no one else? Or maybe you don't even know that Hubbert did it?


Where's all this 'oil' to come from Shorty, tar sands, stripper wells, SA?
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Re: Peaked!...????????????

Unread postby ObiWan » Mon 26 Dec 2011, 12:25:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', ':')razz: Stupid graph actually as total consumption projected into the future cannot exceed total production plus the infinitesimally small amount we have in storage. The line that will rise like a rocket is the price of crude as it rises enough to bend that demand/consumption line down to the total production line.


I would agree with you, except to some extent it has already happened, and some people are very upset that that price was $100/bbl. The inhumanity even! $100 certainly isn't all that bad to the top oil producers on the planet, namely Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States. Considering that the economies of Russia and Saudi Arabia are one trick ponies, it gives us one heck of a competitive advantage.
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Re: Peaked!...????????????

Unread postby ObiWan » Mon 26 Dec 2011, 12:27:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ObiWan', 'E')xcellent graph. And Hubbert extrapolated all of those "Unidentified Projects" as well, I don't suppose you want to argue that he shouldn't have? Maybe it was okay for Hubbert to do it, but no one else? Or maybe you don't even know that Hubbert did it?


Where's all this 'oil' to come from Shorty, tar sands, stripper wells, SA?


While I am not this invisible friend/acquintance/sexual conquest you keep referring to, i would venture that those new discoveries would probably come from the same place Hubbert said they would come from. Just for reference, he didn't know either, so it isn't really a fair question. But it is obvious that you didn't answer mine. Either Hubbert doing it was okay, or it was not. Take your pick, no alien waffling please.
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Re: Peaked!...????????????

Unread postby eXpat » Mon 26 Dec 2011, 12:30:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'I')s there a reason that you resuscitated a short, weak thread that is seventy-seven months old?

Seems to be Shorty new pet proyect, resuscitate dead threads. Spooky :shock:
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Re: Peaked!...????????????

Unread postby dorlomin » Mon 26 Dec 2011, 12:32:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ObiWan', ' ')You see, once upon a time this was actually a peak oil website. Then peak happened,


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')oined: Sun Dec 18, 2011

Shorty no n00b has the slightest interest in a websites history. Let alone can pick up the nuances in 7 days.

We all know its you. 8)
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Re: Peaked!...????????????

Unread postby vision-master » Mon 26 Dec 2011, 15:44:15

Next will be about multiple peaks, eh Shorty? :)
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Re: Peaked!...????????????

Unread postby ObiWan » Mon 26 Dec 2011, 15:49:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ObiWan', ' ')You see, once upon a time this was actually a peak oil website. Then peak happened,


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')oined: Sun Dec 18, 2011

Shorty no n00b has the slightest interest in a websites history.


Au contraire. I find the history of peak oil, as well as its advocates, absolutely fascinating. The ability of a person, or a group of people, to twist reality into something fitting their natural worldview is one of those cognitive dissonance exercises worthy of examination. Peak oil is going to happen...peak oil happens.....wait...peak oil is still happening..lets call it plateau oil instead because, well, you know, bell shaped curves don't have plateaus...wait...no, this time it really happened......nope....it already happened....oops...more increasing production....quick...lets widen up the range on a plateau some more...there we go...okay...now it has happened....no...wait....there it goes increasing some more....(*&*&^^%$^.

Sure doesn't require more than a week of tripping through the archives to see all this, but the real question is, why don't you?
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Re: Peaked!...????????????

Unread postby ObiWan » Mon 26 Dec 2011, 15:53:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'N')ext will be about multiple peaks, eh Shorty? :)


How retarded can you get, obviously there can only be one peak oil. Go watch Highlander already, should be enough dialogue and moving pictures in there for even the likes of you to figure out "there can only be one!" means.
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