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So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 19 Dec 2011, 01:59:56

Bold prediction time! :shock:

Initial unemployment claims will bottom out around 330-350K in February, maybe March, then will go up to around 400K by July or August where they will plateau for most of the rest of the year. They might edge down again late in November or December, but probably not by as much as they're going down now.

Let's see if I'm right!
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Thu 12 Jan 2012, 10:01:54

Image
US Weekly Jobless Claims Skyrocket by 24,000 to 399,000$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')NEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending January 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 399,000, an increase of 24,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 375,000. The 4-week moving average was 381,750, an increase of 7,750 from the previous week's revised average of 374,000.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.9 percent for the week ending December 31, unchanged from the prior week's revised rate.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending December 31, was 3,628,000, an increase of 19,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,609,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,605,000, unchanged from the preceding week's revised average.

Image

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 642,381 in the week ending January 7, an increase of 102,314 from the previous week. There were 773,499 initial claims in the comparable week in 2011.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.3 percent during the week ending December 31, an increase of 0.3 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 4,139,988, an increase of 360,884 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 3.8 percent and the volume was 4,790,155.

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending December 24 was 7,333,213, an increase of 111,010 from the previous week.

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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 12 Jan 2012, 12:22:18

The only legitimate way to compare non-seasonally adjusted numbers is to compare them to the corresponding month or week from the previous year(s). And when we do that for this week's initial claims number, here's what we get:

Jobless Claims Non Seasonally Adjusted
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')oday's release of weekly initial jobless claims came in at a seasonally adjusted 399K, which was more than the expected 375K and the highest level seen since the end of November. In recent weeks, there has been a lot of attention (or at least more than usual) placed on the non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) readings. This morning was no different as some are pointing to the 102K increase and calling it an alarming signal.

So how worried should we be about it? As of now, not much. The chart below shows weekly initial jobless claims on a NSA basis. Even after this week's reportedly big jump, for the first week of January (red dots), initial claims have not been this low since January 2008. Additionally, compared to recent years, this week's increase of 102K is actually a lot less than the prior three years where NSA claims rose by between 175K and 225K.

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Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby Pops » Thu 12 Jan 2012, 12:31:10

Looks like you 2 are starting to post some of the same stuff in different threads, lets not.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 12 Jan 2012, 12:42:02

^
Not me. I didn't post that anywhere else.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby Pops » Thu 12 Jan 2012, 13:18:07

you sound like a kid.

You posted the 500mbd shale oil story in 3 different threads. Cross-posting is a specific no-no.

You guys are tiring.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 12 Jan 2012, 13:21:36

Sorry. I thought you were referring to this specific thread.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Thu 12 Jan 2012, 15:32:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'C')ross-posting is a specific no-no.


Oops ... didn't know.
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