by Pretorian » Thu 15 Dec 2011, 19:21:19
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse3', 'I') just had the hope beat out of me.
When I became PO aware and went from being energy ignorant to energy aware, when the illusion of business as usual or "BAU" forever changed, when I realized there was no such thing as perpetual growth, that our monetary system and oil are inextricably linked, I immediately found myself isolated from everyone I knew stranded alone on an island of despair, scared at the prospect of a looming storm.
Like most of you here, once the illusion of a perpetual goldilocks future with retirement is dispelled, when you realize that BAU is not guaranteed, when you realize that everything you are accustomed to depends on how much oil the Arabs can pump out of the ground, and if they get in trouble, you are in trouble, you immediately start grabbing firewood and building a shelter to make yourself and life more resilent to outside forces, but even that cannot save you. This problem is far too big. Native Americans could live off the land, but our society can't. We killed off the millions of buffalo that fed a few hundred thousand natives. We replaced the buffalo with industrialism, So, it doesn't take long to realize that no matter how hard one tries, we are all in this together, for better or worse. The better is over, get ready for the worse.
Occasionally, on the horizon of future events, I would see glimmering lights of hope. Back in 2004, I thought that our government would act. I was optimistic that Rep Bartlett and others would actually get Congress to act on PO. Those days have long passed. Speeches and hearings led to nothing. Instead of doing anything to become energy independent, we just spend more money on wars in the ME. I accept that now, though, bc we can never be independent of oil. Wind and Solar will never replace it. It's taken years for me to realize this is a transportation fuel crisis. Our tractor trailer trucks will never be solar or wind powered. Our ships will never again be wind powered. So, the reality is we fight in the ME because that's all we can do, fight for the little that's left, make sure we get it and not our enemies. Despite what I may want to happen, the reality is that people will fight and kill for limited resources. So, if countries fight for oil, what will individuals do for it as it increasingly becomes more scarce, more valuable. Fight.
I then got caught up in the hype of NG. Former oilman Boone Pickens was leading the charge very strong back in 2008 to use NG to mitigate PO. Even said that exactly, but it never happened. Three years later, we still have 250 million cars on the road and only 114k use NG. All the the NG they pump out of the ground just gets put in storage tanks. We keep adding more to storage, decreasing prices making it less economical to drill, but all this NG doesn't get used for anything, not transportation anyway, which is the PO problem.
Also, according to some confidential emails released from Chesapeak Energy, it turns out that maybe NG isn't as plentiful as we thought, not as economical as we thought, but at any rate, even if it was both plentiful and economical, we aren't using it as a transportation fuel which means its PO hype. PO is a liquid fuels crisis, and until we use it to power trains, planes and automobiles, it does nothing to mitigate PO. As I said earlier, according to wiki, there are 250 million passenger cars in the US and only about 114k use NG. So, no hope there. Worldwide, there are only 12 million NG cars. Big deal.
Then, I asked myself, if US NG is the answer to PO, why are Pickens and the NG industry needing legislation to get it to happen? Why doesn't it happen based on its own economics? True capitalist always argue that government can't create solutions; energy people always say gov't needs to get out of the way and let them do there job, drill baybe drill; so if the capitalists and energy guys are right, why would the NG industry need legislation to make this NG panacea happen? The fact they need government intervention tells me, the layman, that it won't work based on the economics. Call it EROI or whatever you want to call it, if it takes legislation to make it work, its not economical on its own merits. So, that means its not a good mitigator. It just shows how complicated our system is, how entrenched the oil is into our system, how nothing we know of can replace the crude which literally and figuratively greases the skids of everything we know and do, and and how difficult to transition off of it. It means that NG isn't the answer. It is hype.
Last, there is always "demand destruction" which is economic speak for recession or depression to mitigate PO. Well, how is that any consolation for the working stiffs? Its not. Go tell the Arab Spring, OWS, the Greeks, Italians anyone that the answer is more demand destruction and see how well that goes over. They haven't liked it so far.
Not only is demand destruction politically unpalatable, it apparently doesn't work to keep the price of oil down. The scary thing is, even in a week economy, the price of oil is rising again. It did crash in 2008 going from $145 down to $30, but its now back up to about $100 again. Ouch. Its going up but the economy isn't growing, and that's not a good sign. That's not demand destruction. Why is that happening? Who knows, but it means the classic view of "demand destruction" doesn't necessarily mean the oil price will go down. But this is no surprise to the PO aware, who believe the price of oil will hold or go up as oil becomes more scarce. How much was oil worth in the fictional movie Mad Max? Maybe that wasn't economic fiction. Another big bout of recession in Europe might crush the price of oil temporarily, but everyone in the oil industry says it takes about $70 a barrel to get the oil out of the ground, so this isn't good.
I don't know what the answer is to BAU for our economy, meaning growth. But it takes oil to get growth bc it takes oil to make stuff and transport it. So, maybe there is oil somewhere in the artic where we aren't drilling yet, but that's years away and billions of dollars to get at it, and I'm not sure the world can handle another six years or so of no growth. The system isn't holding up now.
Finally back to the topic : I personally will have the hope knocked out of me, when a realistic alternative energy source
will be found. Till then, I rejoice my popcorn and the show.
