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Cautionary Tale

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Cautionary Tale

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 29 Nov 2011, 20:35:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'B')igger picture; That crowd was proven wrong years ago when the market clearly and definitively told us ethanol is a failure.


But that does not necessarily mean the EROEI for ethanol is less than 1. It merely means that it has been less than easily obtained oil.

Aha that I believe. But you should consider that it is now still more expensive then the average price of what is now moderately difficult to obtain oil and no matter how high the price of difficult to obtain oil becomes it will still be a loser until well after the collapse and there is no oil at all to help produce the ethanol.
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Re: Cautionary Tale

Unread postby The Practician » Tue 29 Nov 2011, 21:36:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('radon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The Practician', '
')No. Straight up wrong. Oil produced at positive EROEI is a PRIMARY ENERGY SOURCE, not a PRODUCT PRODUCED BY THE CONSUMPTION OF ENERGY!


Barrel of oil whose production took 2 or more barrels of your oil of the same quality would probably require some serious justification, but you have to demonstrate that this was the case.



Production of a barrel of oil (or ethanol-equivalent) with the help of coal whose energy is equivalent to that of 2 or more barrels of oil could be quite reasonable. This is because oil and ethanol are liquid, and coal is not.

Production of a barrel of oil (ethanol equivalent) with the help of exported electricity, whose generation consumed 2 or more barrels of oil of the exporter country, could also make sense in certain circumstances.


Fossil fuel products extracted at a positive EROEI are primary energy sources for the industrial economy, not products. I shudder to think of the "certain circumstances" Under which it makes sense to burn two barrels of perfectly good oil in one country to generate electricity to produce 1 BOE of ethanol in another country.
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Re: Cautionary Tale

Unread postby radon » Wed 30 Nov 2011, 05:13:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Fossil fuel products extracted at a positive EROEI are primary energy sources for the industrial economy, not products. I shudder to think of the "certain circumstances" Under which it makes sense to burn two barrels of perfectly good oil in one country to generate electricity to produce 1 BOE of ethanol in another country.


Countries do do strange things with their oil barrels. A good chunk of Russia's exported barrels is converted into financial assets in the form of the Central Bank foreign currency reserves. These are mostly invested in the US dollars (Treasuries), and since 3-4 years ago in - euros; since very lately, some of them - in gold. Thus the oil barrels are getting converted into the US Treasuries, bunds, gilts.. Italian bonds? may be some Greek? This is not even paper, we cannot burn it to get heat and energy from it. Converting them into ethanol would be by far more energy efficient.

The CB reserves now stand at more than 0.5 trillion dollars. This is on top of the quasi-tax that Russia pays to the West in the form of the oil company owners' private "profits", which are duly repatriated to the Western countries and prop up economic activity there, all in the name of market efficiency. Wouldn't it be wiser to leave the barrels converted into financial "assets" in the ground for the use of future generations? But this would push today's oil price higher, wouldn't it.

Norway has an oil-financed sovereign wealth fund whose investment mandate is not very different, probably. MENA countries also have SWFs. One may wonder where those are invested in. (Russia also has one but since 2010 it is no longer financed by oil revenues, and has declined from circa 125b USD in 2008 to 25b USD now).

Now, we have a wheat glut this year (reported in another thread). The French are unable to sell their wheat as the Black Sea wheat (Russia's, Ukraine's, Kazakhstan's) is at 15% discount to theirs, and therefore preferred by the importers. As we have seen, cheap or free bread often does little good in the longer term.

Why not consider converting some of this wheat into ethanol? The oil barrels spent on growing this wheat is already sunk cost, so hopefully we can convert some wheat back into energy-intensive form (ethanol) and save a few oil barrels that we appear to have wasted this year on growing this wheat.
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Re: Cautionary Tale

Unread postby Pops » Wed 30 Nov 2011, 09:53:30

I think it's silly to talk about how much energy is used to produce ethanol for transport fuel when a good portion of whatever type of liquid fuel is used to transport 12oz containers of 1.6% ethanol solution via 3,000 pound ICE vehicle, 6 at a time, from the Quik Sak to the couch.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Cautionary Tale

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 01 Dec 2011, 14:48:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I') think it's silly to talk about how much energy is used to produce ethanol for transport fuel when a good portion of whatever type of liquid fuel is used to transport 12oz containers of 1.6% ethanol solution via 3,000 pound ICE vehicle, 6 at a time, from the Quik Sak to the couch.

8) Excellent point but the day the average American can no longer do that before the Nascar race or NFL game will be the day they mark as the EOTWAWKI.
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Re: Cautionary Tale

Unread postby AgentR11 » Thu 01 Dec 2011, 15:25:27

6 packs fit perfectly in the paniers of my bicycle.
And I can legally ride it (if not safely) while completely wasted.
I didn't write the above.
Any similarity between real persons is purely unintentional.

Americans just need a little attitude adjustment. It really won't be so bad, it'll just take time.
Yes we are, as we are,
And so shall we remain,
Until the end.
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Re: Cautionary Tale

Unread postby radon » Fri 02 Dec 2011, 05:00:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The Practician', '
')Fossil fuel products ...are ... not products.


Yeah... sophisticated.
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