[Tapas]

Have you ever wondered how you could convince your neighbors, friends, family members, co-workers or your boss on the ramifications of Peak Oil and the profound impact it is going to have on our civilization?

Perhaps, you head is swimming in all the thousands of pieces of information you have gathered by spending sleepless hours on PeakOil.com and wondering if there was a simple way to convey your knowledge in the least possible time to a Peak Oil novice.

Perhaps your management has given you a 30 minute time slot to give a quick presentation on this topic to bring them up to speed without confusing them with tons of technical articles and causing unnecessary alarm.

Well, our friend Robert Bériault from Canada has done a stupendous job in putting together a Power Point Presentation that bristles with scientific facts and eye-catching graphics. I had gleaned most of these issues by my study of Peal Oil over the years. I was delighted to find this single source that presents these issues and concepts in bite size pieces accompanied by tons of wonderful graphics stringed out in a logical sequence.

It piques your interest and imagination and you can't stop reading once you get to the end of Chapter One.

The entire presentation is broken down into 10 logical chapters:


Chapter 1. Oil: The Lifeblood of a Technological Society


Robert begins his presentation explaining why oil is so valuable to Western Civilization. Most of our Transportation, Construction, Manufacturing, Distribution, International Trade, Tourism, Recreation, Health Care, and Heating depends on oil.

Oil is a versatile substance.


Chapter 2. The Important Question: When Will Oil Peak?


Where does oil comes from? Robert explains that mother nature gave the world about 2 trillion barrels of oil. Of that we have consumed about 1 trillion barrels, since the first oil well was dug in Pennsylvania, Texas in 1859. We are at the half-way point.

The problem begins not when we completely run out of oil, which may never happen, but when the rate of production falls below demand.

Robert presents seven facts to show that we are approaching decline.

1. Hubbert's Peak

In 1956 Hubbert predicted that oil production in the US Lower 48 States would peak in 1970. He used mathematical models to predict this event.

He was laughed at!

And he was right!!

2. Oil discoveries in the US peaked, then production peaked 42 years later.
The world would follow a similar pattern.

3. Since 2003 no more Giant Oil fields have been discovered.
We are consuming 4 barrels of oil for each barrel that is being discovered.

4. The EROEI ratio - Energy Returned on Energy Invested is falling.
Before 1950 it was 100:1
Today this has fallen to 10:1

5. Oil companies are losing money exploring new oil fields. In 2003 oil companies spent $8 billion on exploration and found only $4 billion in new reserves.

6. No more spare capacity.

7. Oil fields are getting old and tarred.

The situation is being exacerbated by growing economies like China. Their demand for oil is going up by 11% per year. They are the second largest consumer of oil behind the US.


Chapter 3. Consequences of the Oil Decline


What happens when the oil starts to decline?

According to Hubbert's model, the decline is predicted to be 3% per annum. Now factor in the world demand that is growing by 2% per year and you have a resultant gap of 5% per year between supply and demand. We would have 40% less energy than our requirements in a decade!

The likely results of the oil decline would be higher prices of commodities, bankruptcies, unemployment, food shortage, power failures, security risks and the fall of Suburbia.

Citizens will have lesser money to spend on luxury items like plasma TVs, motorboats, air travel, vacations, restaurants. Industries engaging in luxury goods will see a decline. It would spell the end of Economic Growth.

The entire economic system may collapse bringing us back the Great Depression. Unlike the 1930s, this would be permanent.


Chapter 4A: Other Non-Renewable Sources of Energy


Robert talks about the Oil and Gas reserves of Canada which has enough gas to supply the world for 4 years but only enough oil to last for 4 months.

He presents the advantages and problems associated with Coal, Tar Sands, Natural Gas, Methane Hydrates and Nuclear Power.

He presents a hypothetical scenario. How many nuclear power plants must the US build to make up for the 3% annual decline in oil supplies?

Consider this:

The US consumes 833,000 barrels of oil per hour.
3% of 833,000 = 25,000
Therefore, the US would run short of 25,000 barrels of oil the first year, 50,000 barrels of oil the second year, 75,000 barrels of oil the next and so on.
There are 1.59 MegaWattHours (MWH) of energy equivalent per barrel of oil.
Therefore, 25,000 barrels of oil = 40,000 MWH

A single large Nuclear plant produces 1000 MegaWatts per hour. So we see that the US would need to install 40 such mega nuclear plants each year and every year thereafter just to keep up with the supply slack!

Switching to hybrid cars is also a fantasy. It takes 90 barrels of oil equivalents to manufacture a single car. There are 700 million cars in the world.


Chapter 4B: Renewables: Wind and Solar Energy


What about Hydrogen? Robert explains that Hydrogen is not an Energy Source but an Energy Carrier. It always takes more energy to produce hydrogen that what we get out of it.

What about Ethanol? The US has 300 million cars. What if everybody switched from gas to corn derived ethanol? We have to devote 33% of the land area of United States to grow the corn! Consider that cropland makes up 19% of all the land in the US.

What about Solar Panels? It would take 75 sq km of Solar Panels to replace a single nuclear reactor.

What about Wind Power? Robert explains the problem with erratic supply and the need to have a standby source.


Chapter 5. The Fate of Easter Island


What happens to a thriving society when it runs out of resources? Robert takes us back in time to 500AD to study the tragic history of one of the most isolated islands on Earth - Easter Island. It was a small uninhabitable sub-tropical paradise, 160 sq km in size in the South Pacific Ocean.

A group of Polynesian settlers arrived by boat around 500 AD bringing with them chickens, pigs, rats and planted banana trees, roots and sweet potato. As a part of their culture, they erected monumental stone statues. The biggest of them measured 70 feet and weighed 240 tons. They cut the trees to use as rollers to move these monstrosities. By 1500 their population grew to 20,000. But suddenly, all this statue building came to an abrupt end. Someone had cut down the last standing tree. There was nothing left to move the 887 statues abandoned in different stages of construction.

Then came the population crash. They could not hunt for porpoise. They could not replace their wooden canoes. With no trees left, they lost their source of heating and cooking fuel. Starvation followed. Fighting ensued. Some resorted to cannibalism.

There was a massive die-off.

The European explorers found 3000 survivors living in destitute conditions in 1722.
Over the next century, the population dropped of to 111.

Robert uses Easter Island as an example to illustrate the notion of Carrying Capacity of our planet. Carrying Capacity of the earth is how many humans it can support indefinitely at a certain lifestyle and a certain level of technology without degrading its life support system.

When a population exceeds its Carrying Capacity, it goes into Overshoot. Overshoot becomes possible when a species encounters a rich and previously unexploited stock of resources that promote its reproduction.

Invariably, after a population overshoots, a massive die-off of the species follows.

Robert uses a second example to illustrate species overshoot. He explains the case of Matthews Island where 29 reindeers were introduced during WWII. With no natural predators, and an abundant food supply of Lichen mats, the reindeer population swelled to 6000 by 1963. However, within 3 years of this population peak, it crashed leaving 42 emaciated specimens. Lichen is a slow growing food source. The draw down was faster than it could be replenished.

Area alone does not determine Carrying Capacity. Robert points out that the entire 6.4 billion human species can be squeezed like sardines into Prince Edward Island. But we need more area than just to stand on our feet. We need room for cities and farms, vast expanse of foliage to support biodiversity, resources to build schools, universities, recreation spots for hiking, hunting, beaching, vast areas of bogs and swamps to absorb and neutralize our chemical effluents, large natural forests to maintain underground water tables, prevent soil erosion and purify the air.

Robert talks about Phantom Acreage and how oil helped to triple the carrying capacity of the planet. However, when oil becomes scare, the food production will plummet just when the population has peaked.


Chapter 6. Parallels with Today's Technological Society


Can we draw a parallel between the fate of the Easter Islanders and the fate of our Industrial Age?

The islanders built increasingly taller statues, we are doing the same with our skyscrapers.

They worshipped the Gods of Statues, we worship the God of Growth.

Their population doubled every 100 years. We have doubled and double again in the past 100 years.

They cut down the trees. We are deforesting the whole planet.

Loss of trees let to topsoil erosion. Food production dropped in the island. We are doing this on a global scale. Our consumption has exceeded our Grain Supply. Desertification is advancing in China, Africa and the US. We add 11 million cars each year paving 4 million acres of prime farmland.

The islanders could no longer hunt for porpoise, having cut all their trees to build canoes. But they did not destroy the fish - only the means to get to them. We on the other hand are destroying all the fisheries.

The islanders were forced to live miserably in caves after reaching their peak population. Billions of humans today live in Shanty Towns around the world.

The islanders dried up their fresh water ponds and streams. We are drying up the Colorado river. It dries up before reaching the ocean. We have created toxins that is undermining Nature's web of life.


Chapter 7. How Growth Feeds on Growth


The lure of Exponential Growth - the magic of Compound Interest.

Robert explains how $1000 compounded at an annual interest of 8% will swell to $47,000 in 50 years. This concept applies to population figures as well. There will always be an element that places a limit on growth. Usually, it would be food, but it can be water, air or the inability of the organism to get rid of its own waste.

Robert brings up the case of growing bacteria in a Petri dish. Each bacterium divides into 2 every minute. If you inoculate one bacterium in a Petri dish at time say 11am, then in 60 minutes they would exactly fill up the entire dish. By 12 Noon, all the nutrients would have gone. The dish would be half full at 11:59am, just one minute before the final doubling in numbers.

This last generation will be totally clueless about their impending fate.

Imagine, if some elderly Easter Islander had given a warning when half the trees were still standing.

Imagine the response from society:

Lumbermen: Jobs before trees!

Stone Carvers: Statue building is the foundation of our Civilization.

Religious leaders: Women must produce babies to build more statues for the Gods.

Politicians: We need more people to stimulate economic growth and to support our elders.

So what time is it on Earth? We have used up half of our oil on which our Civilization depends on.

I would let the curious reader breeze through the rest.


Chapter 8. How we got ourselves into this situation


Chapter 9. What You and I Can Do


Chapter 10. Conclusion


I found this to be an excellent tool to convey the message of Peak Oil, Overpopulation, Carrying Capacity, Overshoot and Die off to a newbie. It is presented in a very casual style that even a sixth grader can grasp. Robert does not get into politics or religion. It is a simple, logical construct based on past history, scientific facts, and a reasonable conclusion coming from a clear mind.

Each Power Point presentation is about 2MB in size. The entire work is 19MB which compresses down to a single Zip File of size 16MB.

You can access the chapters on-line from www.peakoilandhumanity.com

Here is Robert's contact info:

Robert Bériault
895 rue de l'Oasis, Unit 4
Gatineau, QC
J8R 3W7

email: michrob@videotron.ca

Robert, I salute you for your heroic effort in publishing this work.

Perhaps Aaron, our Peak Oil Site Administrator, may consider making this presentation available on PeakOil.com

[Jack]

Interesting material. If only one could download a single zip file with full contents....

[Tapas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'I')nteresting material. If only one could download a single zip file with full contents....

[linlithgowoil]

i looked at a couple of things, then came to the end one where he basically asks people for money. at that point i deleted all of it.

what a bastard - he's just plucked all the very well known facts about peak oil, spent some hours making presentations and then asks people for cash.

he can (expletive deleted.)off.

Edited by Jack

[Whitecrab]

He wants money to help buy ad space in the paper. Seems reasonable enough to me.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tapas', 'P')erhaps your management has given you a 30 minute time slot to give a quick presentation on this topic to bring them up to speed without confusing them with tons of technical articles and causing unnecessary alarm.

[Tapas]

Here is the link to download the single 16.5MB Zip File for Robert's PowerPoint Presentation on Peak Oil and the Fate of Humanity:



ZIP File for Peak Oil and Humanity



Whitecrab is correct. Give yourself an hour or two to go through the entire presentation. There is a lot of material covered in this series. I got so drawn in by the power of these visual tools, it felt like half an hour to me!