[dolanbaker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', '
')It's come down to 18 million/day over the past five years. Poorer Americans have been conserving priced out of excess consumption. Meanwhile production has increased. So we are in better shape than five years ago.

[GoIllini]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', 'R')ationing by price is alive and well.

[rangerone314]

Gradual is only gradual until a tipping point is reached or a black swan occurs. Then it is not gradual anymore.

[GoIllini]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'G')radual is only gradual until a tipping point is reached or a black swan occurs. Then it is not gradual anymore.

[Loki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', 'L')et's assume the doomer scenario- a global nuclear war in the Northern hemisphere between Russia, China, and the US. We can all go down to Argentina, New Zealand, or (now nuke-free) South Africa and enjoy some paragliding and diving.

[GoIllini]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', 'Y')ou make a good case for why we need confiscatory taxes on the assets of the rich, who have clearly lost all sense of civic virtue.

[vision-master]

Very Strange?

[ralfy]

"12 Reasons To Be Extremely Pessimistic About The Direction That The Economy Is Headed"

http://endoftheamericandream.com/archiv ... -is-headed

[eXpat]

$707,568,901,000,000: How (And Why) Banks Increased Total Outstanding Derivatives By A Record $107 Trillion In 6 Months
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hile everyone was focused on the impending European collapse, the latest soon to be refuted rumors of a quick fix from the Welt am Sonntag notwithstanding, the Bank of International Settlements reported a number that quietly slipped through the cracks of the broader media. Which is paradoxical because it is the biggest ever reported in the financial world: the number in question is $707,568,901,000,000 and represents the latest total amount of all notional Over The Counter (read unregulated) outstanding derivatives reported by the world's financial institutions to the BIS for its semi-annual OTC derivatives report titled "OTC derivatives market activity in the first half of 2011." Indicatively, global GDP is about $63 trillion if one can trust any numbers released by modern governments. Said otherwise, for the six month period ended June 30, 2011, the total number of outstanding derivatives surged past the previous all time high of $673 trillion from June 2008, and is now firmly in 7-handle territory: the synthetic credit bubble has now been blown to a new all time high. Another way of looking at the data is that one of the key contributors to global growth and prosperity in the past 10 years was an increase in total derivatives from just under $100 trillion to $708 trillion in exactly one decade. And soon we have to pay the mean reversion price.

What is probably just as disturbing is that in the first 6 months of 2011, the total outstanding notional of all derivatives rose from $601 trillion at December 31, 2010 to $708 trillion at June 30, 2011. A $107 trillion increase in notional in half a year. Needless to say this is the biggest increase in history. So why did the notional increase by such an incomprehensible amount? Simple: based on some widely accepted (and very much wrong) definitions of gross market value (not to be confused with gross notional), the value of outstanding derivatives actually declined in the first half of the year from $21.3 trillion to $19.5 trillion (a number still 33% greater than US GDP). Which means that in order to satisfy what likely threatened to become a self-feeding margin call as the (previously) $600 trillion derivatives market collapsed on itself, banks had to sell more, more, more derivatives in order to collect recurring and/or upfront premia and to pad their books with GAAP-endorsed delusions of [url][/url]future derivative based cash flows. Because derivatives in addition to a core source of trading desk P&L courtesy of wide bid/ask spreads (there is a reason banks want to keep them OTC and thus off standardization and margin-destroying exchanges) are also terrific annuities for the status quo. Just ask Buffett why he sold a multi-billion index put on the US stock market. The answer is simple - if he ever has to make good on it, it is too late.

Which brings us to the the chart showing total outstanding notional derivatives by 6 month period below. The shaded area is what that the BIS, the bank regulators, and the OCC urgently hope that the general public promptly forgets about and brushes under the carpet.

[Cloud9]

Here in Florida it is evident to me that we are running two economies. Here in the center part of the state the very best jobs to be had are with local government. The poor are just hanging on. Construction is dead; the subdivisions are littered with unfinished houses left over from the boom. The thirty somethings are moving back in with their parents. In the Coach Outlet in Orlando, it is wall to wall with women buying $300, purses for $150 and thinking they have got a good deal. I know my wife bought two of them for Christmas gifts. Traffic is thick in Tampa. Here in the sticks black Friday was thin. There were no fights for Chinese trinkets.