[babystrangeloop]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'F')or that reason, the Peak Oil "movement" needs a reboot. A more cogent argument for ramifications of Peak Oil based on a slow crash model need to be posited.

[jesus_of_suburbia]

Although he doesn't really fit in the realm of peak oil experts, I am a big fan of Ran Prieur.

I think more than anyone he introduces ideas and allows his readers to think for themselves, as opposed to thinking for them. His posts are often pretty short and succinct. I don't think he does paid speaking gigs. Also, for the most part, he doesn't give steadfast predictions. I've been following him for a while and still enjoy his blog. Even though, like killJoy I no longer hang on to the words of peak prophets like as I did previously.

I used to be a big Kunstler fan until he started sounding like a broken record. I still enjoy Dmitri Orlov to an extent. Sometimes he comes off kind of dickish. And, every now and then, he throws in some random ass story of a person who was miserable living in the US, who then moved to some buttf***, nowhere town in Siberia and is all off the sudden happy.

As killjoy said, I believe in peak oil. How it's going to play out is beyond me. I just got sick of waiting for the "next [insert #] years, months, days", and then shit is really going to get crazy. It will come when it comes. When it does, I likely have a lot more family and friends to back me up than you.

[Ibon]

Oh yes, it has turned out to be quite a constipated "movement".

[babystrangeloop]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('babystrangeloop', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'F')or that reason, the Peak Oil "movement" needs a reboot. A more cogent argument for ramifications of Peak Oil based on a slow crash model need to be posited.

[The Practician]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', 'I') like Greer. He's a bright guy, a good writer (if a bit verbose), has a good grasp of history, and I've found a lot of his points to be quite thought provoking. I particularly enjoy his long duree view of history, which is unusual in this era.

But when he starts talking about “magic” and “green wizardry” my eyes glaze over. I just don't find those useful or compelling metaphors. On the contrary, it makes me take everything else he has to say with a grain of salt.

That's not to say that he doesn't offer useful information. I read his blog most every week, I've learned from Greer, just as I've learned from Kunstler, despite his fantasy novels and irritatingly elitist “cultural criticism.” Hell, I've probably even learned from Savinar

Peak oil is kinda fringey. I'm OK with that. We should certainly call BS on the hyper-hysterical types and be honest about our mistakes, but it's illogical to dismiss the entire peak oil concept just because some of it's more vocal proponents have been eccentrics and nutcases. I think the geology speaks for itself.

[ralfy]

There is no need for a reboot or to form a movement. Just look at the various reports about peak oil and points related to it, if not public comments made, by the IEA, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, the U.S. military, the German military, Lloyd's of London, HSBC, Toyota, BP, Shell, former executives of businesses like Saudi ARAMCO, the NZ Parliamentary, and more. Almost all of them are found online.

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'T')here is no need for a reboot or to form a movement. Just look at the various reports about peak oil and points related to it, if not public comments made, by the IEA, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, the U.S. military, the German military, Lloyd's of London, HSBC, Toyota, BP, Shell, former executives of businesses like Saudi ARAMCO, the NZ Parliamentary, and more. Almost all of them are found online.

[thuja]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'T')here is no need for a reboot or to form a movement. Just look at the various reports about peak oil and points related to it, if not public comments made, by the IEA, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, the U.S. military, the German military, Lloyd's of London, HSBC, Toyota, BP, Shell, former executives of businesses like Saudi ARAMCO, the NZ Parliamentary, and more. Almost all of them are found online.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '.')..there is no concerted effort to raise awareness of a problem that is likely to dwarf every other problem out there (save maybe climate change) in the near future.

[thuja]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')Actually there is. It just isn't very effective.

There is ASPO and various web sites (including this one) and lots of books. There is a faction of the academic community researching and talking and teaching about peak oil---. There are oil company execs who speak about it and numerous financial advisors using peak oil to advise their clients. There are clubs and organizations at the local level.

[Arthur75]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')
Yes there are folks talking about peak oil but they do not constitute a "concerted" effort.

[Pops]

Erik Curen is a Transition guy and one of the few who actually speak the evil phrase, his latest is something like 'pepper spraying peak oil' if anyone wants to look for it.

I used to be a "movement" guy too. Well, I'm not really a join up type person but at least hoping there would be some grand awakening, aside from the fact I'm a geek it's why I put effort here. But I've decided an awakening won't happen, at least not in the sense that everyone gets together and does something cohesive - in the US we aren't even sure whether we want kids studying or cleaning toilets to save taxes so I don't see any fuel tax increase happening.

I think most people who stay current with at least a little of the world outside their favorite sim have heard of peak by now. I also think those who are able and even a little thoughtful will try to reduce their exposure to higher prices, i.e. park the dually and buy a used 4-banger.

But they will only address the symptoms - unleaded prices for example. For many, actually making big changes, like moving to a walkable neighborhood to eliminate unleaded altogether is already out of the question - 50% of homeowners are effectively underwater.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')n US totals, if you figure average house prices use conforming loan balances, then a repeat buyer has to have roughly 10 percent down to buy in addition to the 6 percent Realtor fee to sell. Thus, the effective negative equity target would be 85%. You also have to factor in secondary financing, which most measures leave out.

Based on that, over 50 percent of all mortgaged households in the US are effectively underwater — unable to sell for enough to pay a Realtor and put a down payment on a new purchase without coming out of pocket. Because repeat buyers have always carried the market as the foundation, this is why demand has not come back. It's as if half the potential buyers in America died over a two-year period of time.

[Cog]

I don't think its too much to ask of Canada to sacrifice one of their provinces to provide the USA with all the oil it wants to use.