[Outcast_Searcher]

So doomers, apparently the howls of destruction about mass starvation soon were a bit overblown? As the moderates to cornies tried to point out, markets WILL adapt when shortages of things that can (at this point) have additional resources applied to them -- in the hopes of garnering greater profits.

So now it appears we have a grain GLUT. Is that doom too?

(This is NOT to say that long term, BAU growth will not end in disaster (or tremendous pain and loss on a planetary scale) -- this is to say that all the SHORT TERM predictions of doom over seemingly EVERY event/topic approach a credibility score of zero, IMO. And - far more importantly detract from the potential core message this and similar sites have to offer folks who want to learn about the issues of the end of cheap energy.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-1 ... ities.html

[careinke]

We have dryland wheat, (no irrigation), in Eastern Oregon. Normally it takes two years of rain for one years crop. This last year there was so much rain that we were able to plant all of it, basically doubling our wheat production. So I am not surprised by this.

[vtsnowedin]

I have to ask. With what money are the Egyptians using to pay for the wheat they are importing?

[Pretorian]

Tourists came back. It costs funny money to fly there from Europe.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', 'T')ourists came back. It costs funny money to fly there from Europe.

[Pretorian]

You can say that competition between airlines and hubris of European hotels are buying wheat for Egyptian lumpens, yes.

[AdTheNad]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', 'm')arkets WILL adapt when shortages of things that can (at this point) have additional resources applied to them -- in the hopes of garnering greater profits.

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdTheNad', 'W')aiting for the markets to react is really not an optimal solution to the world's problems.

[ColossalContrarian]

I'm wondering if the wheat market is reacting similar to the oil market where we might experience massive swings of surplus and deficit. I don't know any thing about wheat though... it just makes food that tastes good and is healthy...

[Pops]

Beef, eggs, dairy all up 10% YoY, all other meats up over 5%.
Bread up 7.3%
Fruit +8.7%
Oils up 11%
Potatoes up 16%

Since the "recovery" started, average incomes are down $3,609 - oh yeah and increased crude oil costs of $2500 per household...

Enjoy yer gruel.

[seahorse3]

On another forum, this very issue of a "wheat glut" came up and is being discussed. The doctor is still out on it as far as I'm concerned. Predictions about the future, are just opinions, and like assholes, we all have them and they all stink. There are many above and below ground factors to all this that predictions are a fools game. Although some way they will have record wheat harvests, personal experiences by some who grow wheat on that other forum say they aren't so lucky, so depends where you live I guess. Further, I never discount political and economic motives in trying to drive any commodity price down or up to make a buck.

In the end, there will always be food and oil, if you have access to it in the currency of the day. Even in the famed movie "Road Warrior" there was oil, if you could get it.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', 'Y')ou can say that competition between airlines and hubris of European hotels are buying wheat for Egyptian lumpens, yes.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '['). In 1960, Egypt was producing enough wheat to be almost self-sufficient; by 2010, it was importing roughly half the country's total intake (nine billion tons), making it by far the biggest wheat importer in the world.

[Pretorian]

He is also ignoring continuing loss of arable land in Egypt due to urban development , erosion, pollution, desertification, dam-building, etc. As soon as Europeans will be forced to stay closer to home and as soon as US will stop giving them $2-3 billion per year and subsidizing the grain they buy , Egyptians will starve, big time, and for a good reason.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'Y')ou are ignoring the population growth in Egypt between 1960 and today, and that is where the problem lies.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'Y')ou are ignoring the population growth in Egypt between 1960 and today, and that is where the problem lies.

[kublikhan]

I understand Egypt has small and shrinking amounts of arable land per person and pressures such as population growth and desertification, etc. can play a role in the troubles of Egyptians food security. These are serious issues. But those are not the only issues. Misguided government policies, both foreign and domestic, also play a role in the problem of Egyptian food security. Policies such as favoring importing cheap, subsidized American wheat, Exporting cash generating crops, misguided bread subsidies, etc. A nation should first look to food self-sufficiency before talking about exports. There is more to the Egyptian food security problem than throwing up your hands and saying: "nothing can be done, they are having too many babies, they are all gonna starve, and it's all their fault too!" That is an uninformed position to take.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n Siam's eyes, to reach nine million tonnes, government needs to distribute high-productivity seeds on a nationwide scale, while such seeds are used in only 30 per cent of wheat lands at present.”“To implement this plan, a revision of policies is needed,” he adds. “First, the services of agriculture guidance, that really deteriorated, should be brought back with efficiency. Second, small peasant farmers need more facilities and support,” states Siam.

He recognises the difficulties peasants are facing since the liberalisation of the sector that started by input liberalisation and was followed by land rent liberalisation. “The prices of agriculture inputs increased highly after the liberalisation of the sector, while the price of the crops didn’t rise at the same levels, which made it unrewarding for peasants. American and European farmers benefits from subsidies; why not the Egyptians?” El-Batran wonders. El-Batran assures that Egyptian peasant farmers will be subsidised as part of a new policy aiming to increase production and help the sector employ around eight million persons. “If we count the families, and industries that depend on agriculture, we will find that 40 per cent of the population depends, whether directly or indirectly, on agriculture to earn its living,” says El-Batran.

This new language at the ministry comes after years when the idea of self-sufficiency was seen as old fashioned, liberalisation being the main target. Egyptian agricultural policy was focused on cash generating crops that can be exported, like fruits and vegetables. The most famous example is the cantaloupe of Youssef Wali, minister of agriculture between 1982 and 2004, that spread in Egypt in a few years. The idea was to export high-priced horticulture products to raise enough money to finance the import of cheap cereals. The consequences: Egypt imports 60 per cent of its wheat, 50 per cent of its fava beans, 90 per cent of edible oils, and the list goes on.

Until 1950, Egypt enjoyed self-sufficiency in wheat. “Egypt started to import wheat at this time to cover the needs of the British troops. After 1952 Revolution, wheat consumption increased when the government started to generalise bread made from wheat, while before, in the countryside, people mainly consumed bread made from maize,” recalls Abdel-Salam Gomaam, president of the Grains Centre in the Ministry of Agriculture, known as the "father of Egyptian wheat". He calls to go back to this mode of consumption, to partially solve the problem.

[sparky]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdTheNad', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', 'm')arkets WILL adapt when shortages of things that can (at this point) have additional resources applied to them -- in the hopes of garnering greater profits.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '@') Kubilai , most of the Middle East have food subsidies ,
their population have exploded and their food production shrank ,
since they have a lousy economy with massive unemployment food doles are a necessity
it's like food stamps or the Roman free food distribution

It's also a good way of keeping labor cost low since the food fraction of the lower classes
is the biggest expense

[vtsnowedin]

They can play with efficiency of production all they want but they can not get ahead of the population curve. Yields per acre in Egypt are already near the top of world statistics. To think that a few changes in policy and practise will match the needs of a population that grows at a steady two percent per year is foolish.
But I do like the idea of ending all the evil American shipments of food to the middle east. End the practice and let reality set in and steel ourselves to watching millions of people die while we are helpless to do anything positive about it.
http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2011/11/s ... graph.html
This graph is world total population. The Egyptian only graph would not look any better.