[evilgenius]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'W')hat is reprehensible and disgusting about the truth?

[Pops]

Hey KJ, long time - no talk. Didja get some snow?

I appreciated your rant. We seem to like gurus and suck down whatever our favorite soothsayer spouts without chewing, I guess so we don't have to go to the trouble of thinking. Too many movies maybe, the 'willing suspension of disbelief' is habit.

You gotta remember though, a goodly number of the first PO acolytes were converts from other cults; radical enviros, Y2k, the militia/social anarchy faction, the genuine apocalypse, etc. They were looking for Overnight Armageddon and PO fit the bill to a tee. Lots of folks here were dreaming about the "run for the hills" excuse, some like me were already heading there (for a variety of reasons) and others like yourself had already been there a while, it was a perfect situation for Gurus to sprout.

People search for the prophet that preaches the gospel the direction their own knee jerks. Then they set that as their favorite channel and never stray again. Look at fracking, it obviously means something but who can tell what at this point? Still, it is either dismissed whole cloth or hailed as the second coming of the Energy Fairy depending on your guru.

Oh well, hang in there.

[killJOY]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')og said,

What is reprehensible and disgusting about the truth?

[killJOY]

Pops: "We seem to like gurus and suck down whatever our favorite soothsayer spouts without chewing, I guess so we don't have to go to the trouble of thinking. Too many movies maybe, the 'willing suspension of disbelief' is habit."

The habit of mind to simply confirm what has already been bought as whole cloth prevails over the most logical course: To search for evidence that disconfirms.

That's the problem with soothsayers: all they have to say it "yet." It hasn't happened "yet."

At least Simmons put a time lock on his prediction of $200 oil. His heart attack saved him from the embarrassment of having to admit failure.

[Cog]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')og said,

What is reprehensible and disgusting about the truth?

[killJOY]

"If the industrial world that we have become accustomed to crashes,..."

"If a comet strikes the earth...."

"If the Yellowstone supervolcano explodes...."

Big "ifs."

[thuja]

Fast Crashers ruined the perception of Peak Oil as a concern of cranks and uberdoomers.

Now that they are mostly vanquished, I think its high time we rebranded and banished the Peak Oil= insta doom/die-off meme.

This is a very very serious topic that already has had dramatic repurcussions to the golbal economy. It is possible that it will surpass all other problems to be the most compelling and damaging problem to modern civilization (even surpassing climate change in the short term.)

For that reason, the Peak Oil "movement" needs a reboot. A more cogent argument for ramifications of Peak Oil based on a slow crash model need to be posited.

[Bruce_S]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', ' ') A more cogent argument for ramifications of Peak Oil based on a slow crash model need to be posited.

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bruce_S', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', ' ') A more cogent argument for ramifications of Peak Oil based on a slow crash model need to be posited.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bruce_S', '
')
I agree. But why do we need an argument when we have reality? Oil prices gradually trending higher, transition to eco-friendly transport, another shift (like the 70's) towards more efficient GDP creation per barrel of crude, more close-distance compatible neighborhoods, peak demand lessening need for crude in the developed world in general, and presto, a slow crash (slow crash in crude use anyway) scenario. Now that the fast crashers have been ousted, it seems only fair to entertain the idea that no crashing at all is required, or at least no more than has already happened.

[Bruce_S]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peripato', '
')In what way has a fast crash been averted?

[Bruce_S]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')That's because "reality" shows a series of "fast crashes" amidst a global slow crash, as seen in flooding, social unrest, nuclear power plant meltdowns, and other problems that are taking place.

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bruce_S', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peripato', '
')In what way has a fast crash been averted?

[Bruce_S]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peripato', '
')How do you know peak oil has happened? Have we seen permanent shortages yet?

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bruce_S', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peripato', '
')How do you know peak oil has happened? Have we seen permanent shortages yet?

[evilgenius]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', '&')quot;If the industrial world that we have become accustomed to crashes,..."

"If a comet strikes the earth...."

"If the Yellowstone supervolcano explodes...."

Big "ifs."

[killJOY]

The peak oil cult has no time for hypothesizing: they're too busy "prepping" for their dogmatic collapse.

As for the druid dude: He's no more reliable on peak oil than Jimmy Swaggart. "All religions are in the same bucket," as my anthropology teacher used to say.

So do you agree with him that everyone who currently survives through the use of medications is going to die? If so, then why aren't you calling up these people and telling them to start hoarding their meds? Are you that callous?

Just about every peak oil pundit has turned out to be a jackass. Call Mr Greer the Arch Jackass.

[Bruce_S]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', 'T')he peak oil cult has no time for hypothesizing: they're too busy "prepping" for their dogmatic collapse.

[Loki]

I like Greer. He's a bright guy, a good writer (if a bit verbose), has a good grasp of history, and I've found a lot of his points to be quite thought provoking. I particularly enjoy his long duree view of history, which is unusual in this era.

But when he starts talking about “magic” and “green wizardry” my eyes glaze over. I just don't find those useful or compelling metaphors. On the contrary, it makes me take everything else he has to say with a grain of salt.

That's not to say that he doesn't offer useful information. I read his blog most every week, I've learned from Greer, just as I've learned from Kunstler, despite his fantasy novels and irritatingly elitist “cultural criticism.” Hell, I've probably even learned from Savinar

Peak oil is kinda fringey. I'm OK with that. We should certainly call BS on the hyper-hysterical types and be honest about our mistakes, but it's illogical to dismiss the entire peak oil concept just because some of it's more vocal proponents have been eccentrics and nutcases. I think the geology speaks for itself.

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', 'I') like Greer. He's a bright guy, a good writer (if a bit verbose), has a good grasp of history, and I've found a lot of his points to be quite thought provoking. I particularly enjoy his long duree view of history, which is unusual in this era.

But when he starts talking about “magic” and “green wizardry” my eyes glaze over. I just don't find those useful or compelling metaphors. On the contrary, it makes me take everything else he has to say with a grain of salt.

That's not to say that he doesn't offer useful information. I read his blog most every week, I've learned from Greer, just as I've learned from Kunstler, despite his fantasy novels and irritatingly elitist “cultural criticism.” Hell, I've probably even learned from Savinar

Peak oil is kinda fringey. I'm OK with that. We should certainly call BS on the hyper-hysterical types and be honest about our mistakes, but it's illogical to dismiss the entire peak oil concept just because some of it's more vocal proponents have been eccentrics and nutcases. I think the geology speaks for itself.