[Cog]

According to Westexas's Export Land Model China/India will consume all oil exports by 2030. Assuming current import/export trends continue.

[Serial_Worrier]

What I want to know is where are the new Ghawars going to come from?

[Cog]

We're going to need a lot more drilling rigs.

[The Practician]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'I')t's a minor point but the article says that there are plentiful opportunities not supplies. However, it also says in the first paragraph that exploration is now moving to areas that were once considered peripheral, i.e. this is a peak oil scenario! One wonders just how much oil will be produced in Iraq. As for price, that is in the hands of the world's economic wizards. . . anybody's guess.

[Graeme]

Here's one price prediction that I've posted elsewhere on this board. I'd like to repost it here in case you missed it and coz it impressed me.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')raph 2 (see below) plots an oil price rise of $10/year and a productivity gain of 3%/year (adaptive response). The graph shows the price increases, driven upwards by depletion, outrunning the adaptive responses that higher prices induce, to give a crossover in 2014. The crossover gives the timing of the economically determined Peak because an oil price is reached that is economically destructive and cannot be paid for any length of time.


This analysis now gives an alternative method of determining the likely timing of Peak Oil. The other method is to determine the net flows of incremental capacity (new capacity minus depletion) and to balance this against the most likely growth trajectory.

The dating of Peak Oil using this economic approach gives almost identical results to calculations based on net incremental supply (new capacity minus depletion) with both approaches showing 2014/2015 as the crunch point. This coincidence is not surprising as most of the remaining oil development projects are high cost (Deepwater, Tar sands, Arctic).

[The Practician]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'H')ere's one price prediction that I've posted elsewhere on this board. I'd like to repost it here in case you missed it and coz it impressed me.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')raph 2 (see below) plots an oil price rise of $10/year and a productivity gain of 3%/year (adaptive response). The graph shows the price increases, driven upwards by depletion, outrunning the adaptive responses that higher prices induce, to give a crossover in 2014. The crossover gives the timing of the economically determined Peak because an oil price is reached that is economically destructive and cannot be paid for any length of time.


This analysis now gives an alternative method of determining the likely timing of Peak Oil. The other method is to determine the net flows of incremental capacity (new capacity minus depletion) and to balance this against the most likely growth trajectory.

The dating of Peak Oil using this economic approach gives almost identical results to calculations based on net incremental supply (new capacity minus depletion) with both approaches showing 2014/2015 as the crunch point. This coincidence is not surprising as most of the remaining oil development projects are high cost (Deepwater, Tar sands, Arctic).

[Graeme]

Energy Experts Say DOE Oil & Gas Forecasts Are Dangerously Misleading

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') group of distinguished energy experts representing academia, industry, think tanks, and non-profit organizations will meet Wednesday, October 26, 2011 at 10:30 am in front of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to call for "Truth in Energy"regarding the possibility of a near-term oil crisis and long-term oil shortages. Following the news conference, the group will deliver a letter to DOE Secretary Steven Chu calling for urgent action to address this potentially critical threat to America's economy and national security. The Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas USA (ASPO-USA, www.aspousa.org) organized the news conference.

Projections of future oil and gas supply from the DOE's Energy Information Administration (EIA) are misleading, overly optimistic, and foster a dangerous complacency about the nation's energy challenges, according to the group. Such rosy forecasts are typical of industry sources. For example, a recent draft study conducted by the National Petroleum Council (NPC), in cooperation with DOE, claims that development of controversial "shale plays" could make the United States self-sufficient in oil and gas. Petroleum companies with direct interests in shale gas development have played lead roles in the study.

EIA, however, is a taxpayer-funded government agency with a mandate to provide "independent and unbiased… information." Speakers will charge that EIA has failed to fulfill that mission in its oil and gas projections and needs to provide more transparency and explicit explanations about how their forecasts are developed. The group will ask Secretary Chu to answer seven specific questions concerning issues that EIA has failed to critically examine.

The potential for oil shortages, now or in the near future, is rarely if ever mentioned in DOE or EIA's public statements, despite the fact that many other prominent sources warn of the possibility. The International Energy Agency (IEA), of which the United States is a cooperating member, indicates that global conventional oil production may have reached its peak, and has been on a steady plateau since 2005. The U.S. Department of Defense, in its bi-annual JOE report, has identified constrained world oil supply as a major challenge for U.S. military planning. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) also conducted a study in 2007 that highlighted the issue and recommended concrete actions that DOE should take to respond.

[Arthur75]

Great initiative, any PO.com members there ?

[Graeme]

Individual statements in support of ASPO-USA's letter to Energy Secretary Steven Chu

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')im Baldauf, President and Co-Founder, ASPO-USA

We founded ASPO-USA in 2005 with the purpose of monitoring alarming oil and gas trends that we were seeing in the data. We became especially concerned that commonly-relied-upon sources of information were ignoring and dismissing these trends. It’s one thing for industry to put out rosy projections about oil and gas—it’s good for stock prices and Wall Street investors. But EIA is a taxpayer-funded public agency that is supposed to be independent; they're supposed to dig for the truth.

No one can predict the future, but if these glowing predictions turn out to be wrong, the consequences are potentially catastrophic. We can't bet our economy and national security on such overly-optimistic projections; it's a risk that we can't afford. We can't bet our future on another bubble, an oil patch version of the housing bubble and subprime crisis, the stock market bubble and financial bailout, Lehman Brothers, AIG, and Enron.

We are not running out of oil. But we appear to be running out of oil that we can afford. Drilling for oil in extreme deep water, strip mining for oil in the Canadian tar sands, squeezing oil from shale source rock—we are essentially scraping the bottom of the barrel. And despite exuberance from the natural gas industry, there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical that natural gas is going to solve our oil and energy problems.

The Department of Energy’s optimistic forecasts for future supply are dangerously unrealistic. The
risk/benefit ratio is out of balance. If these exuberant predictions are wrong, the consequences could be catastrophic. We need to be conservative in planning for the future. We can’t bet America’s economy and national security on Pollyanna predictions. Exuberance about cheap energy may serve the short-term interests of Wall Street, but it threatens the future of our country.

[Bruce_S]

The only coverage of the press release by ASPO that I can find is here.

http://www.virtualpressoffice.com/publi ... Id=&sInfo=

You would think there would be more.

[babystrangeloop]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bruce_S', 'Y')ou would think there would be more.

[babystrangeloop]

There's an article here but it's awful, total junk. Just the sort of misleading misinformation reporters are paid to produce.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Peak oil is about price, not supply
Jeff Rubin / The Globe and Mail / October 19, 2011

Heading down to Washington to speak at the Association for Peak Oil-USA‘s Truth in Energy conference on Nov. 2, I sense a general malaise within the peak oil movement.

The pequists, as they have become known, appear to be on the defensive these days as they once again roll back their dating of the dreaded supply peak, confounded by the oil industry’s never ending ability to develop new extraction technologies and discover new sources of supply.

While conventional production may have peaked long ago in the lower 48 U.S. states as predicted by the father of the peak oil movement, geophysicist M. King Hubbert, new sources of supply have been found in Alaska and under the Gulf of Mexico. And now oil sand production from Alberta and oil from the Bakken shale deposits may soon replace conventional oil in the mix of North American fuel. ...

[Graeme]

Oil and Gas Bubble Up All Over

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou'll know the U.S. energy industry is really on the rebound when North Dakota's newfangled Bakken oil field starts pumping more crude than Alaska's stalwart Prudhoe Bay. Energy experts expect it to happen in 2012.

Dwindling production from the once-mighty Alaskan field has been a symbol of what was once seen as the slow, inexorable decline of U.S. oil. But new technologies have turned that overall decline into an increase, led by the Bakken shale, which in July produced 424,000 barrels a day, to Alaska's 453,000.

Rising oil production from the Bakken and other nontraditional fields is expected to add 250,000 barrels of oil a day to U.S. production, according to the International Energy Agency, even as conventional oil production falls. If overall trends continue, daily U.S. oil output could be up by 1 million barrels a day by 2016, to 6.6 million.

"I didn't see it, and I don't know anyone else who saw it coming," said James L. Williams of WTRG Economics, an energy consultancy in London, Ark.

[Plantagenet]

I"d be happier if the new oil being produced at Bakken and from offshore sites was part of an overall US energy policy designed to help the US to transition into an economy that could survive in the post-peak oil world.

Unfortunately, the Obama administration has failed to come up with any kind of comprehensive and realistic new energy policy----they've failed to even acknowledge the peak oil problem----so it looks like we'll have to hope that the leader of the next administration will be smart enough to face the truth about peak oil.

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'I')so it looks like we'll have to hope that the leader of the next administration will be smart enough to face the truth about peak oil.

[seahorse3]

Unfortunately these new technologies have yet to refill once mighty reservoirs now depleted or depleting. This mighty Baken touted in the article barely offsets the decline of Alaska. So, the article is misleading about the reality of the energy situation. Why the slant? Why the omission of key facts? There's an angle.

[Pops]

Tight oil & gas doesn't "bubble up" that's kind of the problem.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'Y')ou'll know the U.S. energy industry is really on the rebound when North Dakota's newfangled Bakken oil field starts pumping more crude than Alaska's stalwart Prudhoe Bay.

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')"I didn't see it, and I don't know anyone else who saw it coming," said James L. Williams of WTRG Economics, an energy consultancy in London, Ark.

[Fishman]

Impressive article, so the present production is is 1/80 of American demand. And in 4 years of all out Bakken production will be 1/20 th of American demand, while everything else declines. Looks like I need to get back to the garden. Graeme, hope you have lots of warm cloths and good boots, because the future this article presents is cold houses and lots of walking.

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Fishman', '.')..the future this article presents is cold houses and lots of walking.